Better prospect...Bell or Snyder?

[Frobby]

I've been carrying the Snyder banner for two years now - sometimes almost by myself

I think I've been with you, ever since Snyder played in Hawaii and led the league in batting as a 20 year old. I still have a lot of faith and confidence in him.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Bell entered the year the number 7 prospect in a system perceived as weak by (23rd overall) by BA. Snyder was the ninth prospect in the ninth system. Not much of a disparity there, IMO.

It's past time to retire last winter's rankings for any purposes of present assessment or comparison. Bell has had a breakout season while making the jump to AA. Snyder too made the jump painlessly, though the AAA numbers are superficially not as impressive. Where they ranked in their systems last December is truly inconsequential at this point.

[hoosiers]

It's past time to retire last winter's rankings for any purposes of present assessment or comparison. Bell has had a breakout season while making the jump to AA. Snyder too made the jump painlessly, though the AAA numbers are superficially not as impressive. Where they ranked in their systems last December is truly inconsequential at this point.

If you say so. I was providing context regarding the prospect status at the beginning of the year.

Not sure why one would dismiss this as you do and put so much faith in 2009 as hinted above relative to other information points.

[Arthur_Bryant]

If you say so. I was providing context regarding the prospect status at the beginning of the year.

Not sure why one would dismiss this as you do and put so much faith in 2009 as hinted above relative to other information points.

Well, I'm dismissing the 2008 rankings for a couple of reasons.

First, they're just rankings--some people's subjective albeit well-informed opinions. So even when those rankings were fresh, they were subject to error and bias.

Second, those rankings are almost a year old, and we now have access to critical information that the makers of those rankings didn't have -- the record of Bell's and Snyder's actual 2009 performances!

I'm not dismissing the actual records through 2008, but those from 2009 are most significant because they reflect play in more advanced leagues and because, being the most recent, they're most representative of what Bell and Snyder are right now, and most helpful in projecting what they will be next year and beyond.

[tom smith]

It's actually very close for me, too close to really pick one. They are very different prospects, but I don't know that I can say one is better.

I agree with you

[hoosiers]

Well, I'm dismissing the 2008 rankings for a couple of reasons.

First, they're just rankings--some people's subjective albeit well-informed opinions. So even when those rankings were fresh, they were subject to error and bias.

Second, those rankings are almost a year old, and we now have access to critical information that the makers of those rankings didn't have -- the record of Bell's and Snyder's actual 2009 performances!

I'm not dismissing the actual records through 2008, but those from 2009 are most significant because they reflect play in more advanced leagues and because, being the most recent, they're most representative of what Bell and Snyder are right now, and most helpful in projecting what they will be next year and beyond.

You dismiss the rankings as they are a year old and subjective, but you have decided to post in 2009's "subjective" rating exercise between Snyder and Bell. Not sure why.

I also do not understand reliance on prior statistics while dismissing last year's rankings. After all, the rankings are about actual productivity (the statistics), a player's ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling. This would all be relevant to me.

If they are not to someone else, that's fine. That's all I'll post on this message.

[Lucky Jim]

Great thread.

Re: comparing prospect lists, we should note that Snyder was No. 7 in a notoriously top-heavy prospect list (the Orioles) which, in combination with Bell's vast-improvement, mitigates the "similarity" between the two positions.

I think Bell's the better prospect, but I also think that Snyder is being undervalued a bit due to his bad luck in Norfolk. A 27% LD ratio is ridiculous.

Park and luck adjusted, Snyder would've put up about a .770 OPS this year at AAA. Which isn't bad for a 22 year old.

http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

[QBsILLEST1]

Great thread.

Re: comparing prospect lists, we should note that Snyder was No. 7 in a notoriously top-heavy prospect list (the Orioles) which, in combination with Bell's vast-improvement, mitigates the "similarity" between the two positions.

I think Bell's the better prospect, but I also think that Snyder is being undervalued a bit due to his bad luck in Norfolk. A 27% LD ratio is ridiculous.

Park and luck adjusted, Snyder would've put up about a .770 OPS this year at AAA. Which isn't bad for a 22 year old.

http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

I very much agree with you that Snyder is being undervalued. His discipline at the plate is also being undervalued. IMO the fact that when Bell came to the EL from the Dodger minor league team that his OBP was nearly cut in hald supports the theory that he wa sbeing pitched around wiuth the Dodger organization and then when he came to the EL where no one really knew of him so to speak, he wasnt getting pitched around. Like I said Im up in the air, but Snyder is more of a pure hitter and the fact that I have seen him rise to the occasion against much more experienced pitching pushes me toward him, but if Id have seen Bell come up and knew how he does against adversity I may feel the same toward him......

[RVAbird]

Great thread.

Re: comparing prospect lists, we should note that Snyder was No. 7 in a notoriously top-heavy prospect list (the Orioles) which, in combination with Bell's vast-improvement, mitigates the "similarity" between the two positions.

I think Bell's the better prospect, but I also think that Snyder is being undervalued a bit due to his bad luck in Norfolk. A 27% LD ratio is ridiculous.

Park and luck adjusted, Snyder would've put up about a .770 OPS this year at AAA. Which isn't bad for a 22 year old.

http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

I very much agree with you that Snyder is being undervalued. His discipline at the plate is also being undervalued. IMO the fact that when Bell came to the EL from the Dodger minor league team that his OBP was nearly cut in hald supports the theory that he wa sbeing pitched around wiuth the Dodger organization and then when he came to the EL where no one really knew of him so to speak, he wasnt getting pitched around. Like I said Im up in the air, but Snyder is more of a pure hitter and the fact that I have seen him rise to the occasion against much more experienced pitching pushes me toward him, but if Id have seen Bell come up and knew how he does against adversity I may feel the same toward him......

I guess I think Snyder's been fairly valued. I still have the same projection for him that when he got promoted to Bowie - Aubrey Huff lite.

I think he and Bell will be similarly valuable offensive contributors, but as I said before, it's really defense and positional value that makes all the difference for me.

BTW, good to see you back, LJ.

[wickedwitch]

Snyder's defense has improved a ton at Norfolk. He'll definitely be at least average defensively at 1B.

[Lucky Jim]

I guess I think Snyder's been fairly valued. I still have the same projection for him that when he got promoted to Bowie - Aubrey Huff lite.

I think he and Bell will be similarly valuable offensive contributors, but as I said before, it's really defense and positional value that makes all the difference for me.

BTW, good to see you back, LJ.

I agree w/ you. I just mean those who think that Snyder at Norfolk is some kind of "dose of reality". The sub-.700 OPS is about as solid a sub-.700 OPS as I can imagine.

[allstar1579]

I agree w/ you. I just mean those who think that Snyder at Norfolk is some kind of "dose of reality". The sub-.700 OPS is about as solid a sub-.700 OPS as I can imagine.

First off, welcome back. I was hoping it'd be temporary.

Second, I think it should be mentioned that a good comparison of what you can expect from Snyder should be Roberts' numbers without the steals. Hitting around .280 50 doubles 15 HR and 80 RBI sounds pretty solid to me, although it's much more solid from a 2B than a 1B, but my theory is if you have a lineup with 9 guys that put up those numbers you will win more games than if you have a few guys like that, a few not doing much, and a few killing the ball. You put Snyder at 1st and Bell at 3rd and aside from Izzy you can expect something near that for all 8 other guys.

[QBsILLEST1]

First off, welcome back. I was hoping it'd be temporary.

Second, I think it should be mentioned that a good comparison of what you can expect from Snyder should be Roberts' numbers without the steals. Hitting around .280 50 doubles 15 HR and 80 RBI sounds pretty solid to me, although it's much more solid from a 2B than a 1B, but my theory is if you have a lineup with 9 guys that put up those numbers you will win more games than if you have a few guys like that, a few not doing much, and a few killing the ball. You put Snyder at 1st and Bell at 3rd and aside from Izzy you can expect something near that for all 8 other guys.

I remember at the beginning of the year it was said that the idea was rather than have just a few big boppers to have a solid lineup all the way through, it will get you further. I agree with that, and though Snyder may not hit as many HR's as other 1B, I dopnt see it as that important. I think people are getting too wrapped up in what a 1B is supposed to hit. If the dude can hit .290- .300 then I dont see why he couldnt be a legit 1B. He also has been improving his walk rate and its above average as we speak, and if he puts a bit more time and effort into that aspect, he could be very much like a Roberts without the speed. I wouldnt mind having Nick Markakis playing 1B as long as our RF hit just as well. I see Snyder being Markakis offensively and the plate discipline wont be that much different either....Snyder has been stepping it up moreso than he is given credit for.

I think if you threw out the Norfolk stint, people would be much more indecisive on this. Especially if Snyder kept hittin close to .360. Shoot, Snyder may even have hit more HR than Bell if they would have both played in AA together all year long...

[crawdad]

Great thread.

Re: comparing prospect lists, we should note that Snyder was No. 7 in a notoriously top-heavy prospect list (the Orioles) which, in combination with Bell's vast-improvement, mitigates the "similarity" between the two positions.

I think Bell's the better prospect, but I also think that Snyder is being undervalued a bit due to his bad luck in Norfolk. A 27% LD ratio is ridiculous.

Park and luck adjusted, Snyder would've put up about a .770 OPS this year at AAA. Which isn't bad for a 22 year old.

http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

Glad to see you around. Thought you had gone after we were called nerds who lack the understanding of truly enjoying baseball because we sometimes use quantitative measures to check our gut feelings.

[allstar1579]

I remember at the beginning of the year it was said that the idea was rather than have just a few big boppers to have a solid lineup all the way through, it will get you further. I agree with that, and though Snyder may not hit as many HR's as other 1B, I dopnt see it as that important. I think people are getting too wrapped up in what a 1B is supposed to hit. If the dude can hit .290- .300 then I dont see why he couldnt be a legit 1B. He also has been improving his walk rate and its above average as we speak, and if he puts a bit more time and effort into that aspect, he could be very much like a Roberts without the speed. I wouldnt mind having Nick Markakis playing 1B as long as our RF hit just as well. I see Snyder being Markakis offensively and the plate discipline wont be that much different either....Snyder has been stepping it up moreso than he is given credit for.

I think if you threw out the Norfolk stint, people would be much more indecisive on this. Especially if Snyder kept hittin close to .360. Shoot, Snyder may even have hit more HR than Bell if they would have both played in AA together all year long...

Yeah, and everyone wants to hold that stint against him like that is his ceiling and he's done, but who knows what Bell would have done? Will the pitchforks come out if Bell gets off to a slow start in AAA?