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My Top 30 Vs. Yours.....


QBsILLEST1

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Heres my top 30, I struggles to come to a conclusion on who to put in it and who to elave out of it, we have so much lower level depth that all we have to off of is upside and projection since a lot of our draftees havent played yet. I did my best, Im sure theres some spts that I could have changed, but I did what I could with the limted info that we have on some of these guys. Once it got to #20, I basically went with upside and projection. I could have rated Tolliver, Cowan and Wirsch ahead of Henry and Coffey, but I think thats unfair because Henry and Coffey both have considerably higher ceilings IMO.

1: Arrieta- Successful AA worked on things in AAA finsihed strong, has a chance to open 10 in rotation, but could stay in Norfolk a couple months

2: Britton- Breakout season, he could end up being a top 50 or better prospect after 2010 is over

3: Snyder- IMproved discipline, needs power to come through, could be on OD lineup

4: Bell- Excellent power, excellent discipline, good fielder, could be up by AS break

5: Hobgood- Already has 2 plus pitches, needs to miss more bats though

6: Erbe- Breakout season in which he lost velo but became a better pitcher

7: Avery- Held his own at Marva as 19 y/o highest ceiling of any position player in system

8: Waring- Break out season has best pure power in system, will he do it at higher levels?

9: Joseph- Led league in hitting for majoirty of year, fatigue led to slump for the last mont or so, look for him to show more power next season

10: Hoes- Solid tools across the board. Discipline was the most disappointing thing IMO of his season.

11: S. Johnson- Good K's possible back ender lets see how he progresses next seaosn

12: Beal- Very projectable, very good control, good polish for HSer. Has a plus curve ball, rumors of his fastball getting into low 90's.

13: Drake- Solid but unspectacular year, wanna see more K's.

14: Bundy- Still high ceiling, but disappointing season at Bluefield accompanied by low K's

15: Zagone- Started out hot, but his weaknesses seemed to show through as he went up the chain as many expected

16: Spoone- Injured, came back for a few games this year which is good. His ceiling is as high as anyone else's in the system if stuff comes back, next year will tell us what we have in him IMO.

17: Turner- Solid bat, ability to play most IF positions gives him value. Could surprise in the ML

18: Patton- Like Spoone with a lower ceiling, we will know about him next year. The lack in velo makes sens after surgery, similar to Spoone

19: Welty- Solid bat, power and arm. Could be a sleeper....

20: Henry- Said to have some of the best pure stuff in the draft. He has a higher ceiling than Hobgood IMO, but the injuries of course leave question marks. If he wouldnt have signed this season, he was ranked to be the 2nd best JUCO player behind only #1 Bryce Harper.

21: Coffey- Sky high ceiling, TJ surgery kept him out of commission, next year we will have a better idea about him, hes got a ton of projection left and is a lefty... Needs 3rd pitch

22: Tolliver- Very high upside, pitched well in 3 games for Aberdeen allowed no runs. Questions as to him staying as a starter due to smaller frame.

23: Ohlman- Lots of offensive upside, learning defensive side as we speak...

24: Cowan- Pitched well in Abderdeen, with exception of 1 bad outing, his ERA was in low 1's

25: Givens- High upside, should be above average defender, bat is in question though I believe its gonna come around. Could have been a legit 1st rounder if offensive game woulda improved frmo 08 to 09 in HS

26: Townsend- Good bat, power and discipline. Should do better with full pro season than first couple months

27: Martin- Has a very high upside, 3 quality pitches. Could turn into very good atrter for us down the road.

28: Wirsch- Very projectable, had good K's in GCL, should fill into his frame and add velo. Could become very good for us as well.

29: R. Berry- Was a 1st rounder until injury. Considered a 1st rounder before injury.

30: Webb- High ceiling with good plate discipline......

HM: Noel, Fabrizio, Adams, Tim Berry, Wilfrido Perez, Hoppy, Angle

I dropped Rowell from the list entirely. I didnt know what to do with Adams and Angle, because I really like the upside of our drafftees more than I like the safety of Angle and Adams can hit but his attitude may keep him from ever beeing a MLer.

WHats your top 30?

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I don't have the energy to do a top 30 right now, so I'll just nitpick your list. :)

I actually think it's good, with a couple of what I would consider pretty glaring errors.

Zagone should be much lower, IMO. I think he's an organizational guy who doesn't fit in our top 30.

Turner and Welty should probably both be in the top 12 or 13, IMO.

I'm not sure where to put Givens, but 25 seems awfully low for a top of the 2nd round SS. I think his stock around here took a big hit with his late signing. If we got him in the 3rd round and signed him quickly, I bet the masses would be gushing about the pick.

As I said in my other thread, it's really impossible to be inclusive on our top 30 list this year. Some good talent will be left off. Of course, that happened with Joseph last year, right?

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1 Jake Arrieta

2 Zach Britton

3 Josh Bell

4 Brandon Snyder

5 Brandon Erbe

6 Matt Hobgood

7 Xavier Avery

8 Caleb Joesph

9 Brandon Waring

10 Steve Johnson

11 Chorye Spoone

12 Troy Patton

13 Jesse Beal

14 Robery Bundy

15 LJ Hoes

16 Ronnie Weltly

17 Justin Turner

18 Mychal Givens

19 Cameron Coffey

20 Michael Ohlman

21 Oliver Drake

22 Brett Jacobson

23 Richard Zagone

24 Robbie Widlansky

25 Tyler Henson

26 Rhyne Hughes

27 Tyler Townsed

28 Billy Rowell

29 Blake Davis

30 Matthew Angle

QB, thats a good list my friend

Whats everyone think about this one?

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1. Bell

2. Britton

3. Arrieta

4. Snyder

5. Hobgood

6. Erbe

7. Avery

8. Johnson

9. Joseph

10. Turner

11. Waring

12 Lebron

13. Henson

14. Welty

15. Florimon

16. Spoone

17. Givens

18. Bundy

19. Cowan

20. Patton

21. Angle

22. Beal

23. Cooney

24. Ohlman

25. Hoes

26. Drake

27. Toliver

28. Wirsch

29. Baker

30. Palsha

Questions:

Why did you bump Britton from 4 to 2?

Why did Spoone drop from 7 to 16?

Why moved Johnson from 13 to 8?

What made you decide to rank Hoes this time?

What made you drop Hughes from 15 to unranked?

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My top 30 with commentary for top 15.

1. Arrieta (Still think he'll have better success than Tillman in the ML)

2. Britton (Gets better every year, future #2 behind Matusz)

3. Bell (Great power, best position talent)

4. Snyder (Great year until a so-so stint at AAA)

5. Erbe (Numbers were incredible when healthy)

6. Hobgood (Finished strong, young and high ceiling)

7. Joseph (Nice avg., good defense, improving power, speed, whats not to like? ;) )

8. Waring (Pure power)

9. Avery (Fatest guy in pro ball? Maybe)

10. Johnson (Impressive at Bowie, future back-end rotation starter)

11. Spoone (I personally think he's back, those last couple starts at Frederick have not swayed me whatsoever. Look for him to have a great year at A/AA/AAA next year)

12. Givens (Heard very good things about the kid)

13. Turner (Not much power but can hit for avg. and field well)

14. Patton (Will know more about Patton's recovery next year, still hopeful)

15. Cowan (Impressive in short stint in Aberdeen)

16. Bundy

17. Hoes

18. Florimon

19. Beal

20. Angle

21. Drake

22. Welty

23. Tolliver

24. Henry

25. Zagone

26. Coffey

27. Ohlman

28. Townsend

29. Adams

30. Berry

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I'll try to get something together later, but I think the 09 draft picks are being under-rated. Several kids with bonuses in the $400k to $1M range like Ohlman, Coffey, Givens and Berry should all be closer to 15th than 25th, IMO, at first glance. Our system is not deep enough that after graduating so many guys that these four should be rated so much lower than where Avery and Hoes were last year, IMO.

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Just to be annoying (:)), I decided to put a little time into revising my list. This is it.

1. Bell (great power and ability to stick at 3B)

2. Britton (age, stuff, groundballs, strikeouts)

3. Arrieta (great stuff but his future role is still in question. High ceiling.)

4. Snyder (myseterious dropoff at AAA)

5. Erbe (Looks like starting is still a possibility)

6. Hobgood (Hard to gauge his 1st season. Let's go with the scouts for now)

7. Avery (Still raw, but tons of talent)

8. Johnson (good stuff and supposedly has the intangibles. Same age as Britton but has already impressed in AA. However, flyball tendencies are a concern.

9. Waring (The power potential is too much to ignore. Another Reimold?)

10. Joseph (Great season before wearing down. Looks like he can stay at C)

11. Turner (Gritty, solid 2B with a good bat. Looks like a .280-300+ hitter)

12. Lebron (Erratic & injured before this season. Dominant at Bowie. Mid to upper 90's fastball with improved second offering (slider? split?)

13. Beal (Ok Q! This is for you. Great control. Big tall RHP with some projection. IF the fastball amps up he could be a real good one)

14. Givens (I didn't love the pick but the scouts love his defense and Jordan thinks he'll hit. I'll go with that for now.)

15. Florimon (Some great stretches with the bat. Smooth in the field. Erratic at both. The bat is still a big question mark)

16. Henson (called the best athlete in the system. Gradual improvement but hasn't really put it together yet. Doubtful he stays at 3B which hurts.)

17. Welty (Another toolsy guy who could develop. Solid season.)

18. Spoone (Would be top 10, maybe top 5, if he comes back 100%)

19. Patton (Same as Spoone. Ceiling was considered #2 starter before injury

20. Angle (Starting to make a believer out of me. Rave reveiws about his defense. A solid player. Unfortunately, no power but probably has a ML future.

21. Cowan (Highly thought of 09 draft pick was impressive at Aberdeen)

22. Cooney (Big guy with big stuff (mid 90's)). A reliever who got better as the year progressed. Saved his best for last at Frederick.

23. Bundy (Highly thought of 08 pick. Uneven season at Bluefield. Stuff is somewhat in question with low K totals)

24. Townsend (terrible season at Aberdeen. Wrist issues. Had a good last week. A bit of a mulligan here. Jordan hasn't missed too often. Benefit of doubt)

25. Hoes (Mediocre debut full season. Still highly thought of in the organization)

26. Jacobson (Good, not great season in High A before the trade. Roughed up a bit at Frederick after the trade. Only 22 and has power stuff though.)

27. Coffey (Considering the bonus, he belongs on the list somewhere)

28. R. Berry (Another guy with a lot of talent)

29. Tolliver (Smooth lefty did well in limited time at Aberdeen)

30. Ohlman (Bazooka armed catcher. Another big bonus guy)

I have different gripes with the list. Primarily with the ones I highlighted. There is no way I could put either Florimon or Henson anywhere near my Top 30 list. Henson has pretty much proven he can't stick at 3B. He has had 32, 29 and 28 errors each of the last three seasons. That's awful.

Florimon committed 35 errors this year at SS. Horrendous.

A .260+ batting average with mediocre plate discipline doesn't make me feel any better about their defense holes.

Matt Angle is the opposite extreme. Sure, he's a fantastic defensive centerfielder, but at 24, I expect him to be better then a satisfactory .717 OPS in High-A. I don't think he'll every be able to handle the ML offensively.

None of these three can be considered among the Top 30 prospects we have and definitely not as highly as you have them ranked. While Ohlman, Tolliver, Coffey and the gang haven't proved anything yet in our system, Henson, Florimon, and Angle to a lesser extent have proven they aren't ML players.

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I'll try to get something together later, but I think the 09 draft picks are being under-rated. Several kids with bonuses in the $400k to $1M range like Ohlman, Coffey, Givens and Berry should all be closer to 15th than 25th, IMO, at first glance. Our system is not deep enough that after graduating so many guys that these four should be rated so much lower than where Avery and Hoes were last year, IMO.

Amount of bonus money does not equal talent or ability, although I do have Givens in my top 12.

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I'll try to get something together later, but I think the 09 draft picks are being under-rated. Several kids with bonuses in the $400k to $1M range like Ohlman, Coffey, Givens and Berry should all be closer to 15th than 25th, IMO, at first glance. Our system is not deep enough that after graduating so many guys that these four should be rated so much lower than where Avery and Hoes were last year, IMO.

I think the issue for a change is that we genuinely have a lot of talent in the organization. I was reading through some of these lists to see who you think the young guys should be grouped with, but I'd have to say I think guys like Lebron, Henson and Gamboa are rightfully ahead of them. That being said, you might be right they should be a little higher than the bottom of the list, but there is a lot of talent floating around here.

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Amount of bonus money does not equal talent or ability, although I do have Givens in my top 12.

It's a pretty reliable indicator - not sure why you would say otherwise. The best talents in the organization among the prospects and the majors were pretty early picks and received the appropriate bonus $. I doubt Joe Jordan is giving out $1M bonuses to Coffey and Ohlman if those guys are fifth round talents.

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Where would you rate a guy who previously had way high walk totals of about 1 per inning, but has great stuff and put up these numbers in AA at age 24?

IP ERA WHIP H BB K AVG

27.1 1.98 0.77 8 13 39 .093

Depends on the player, the stuff, and if it was a fluke. Since you are talking about Lebron, I'll say it was not a fluke as it started when he learned a new pitch and became a 3-pitch guy instead of 2 pitches. He stopped just trying to overthrow the ball and started trying to keep guys off balance, you see the results. I like Lebron and he'll be around the mid-point of my rankings.

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Even without any progression from Rowell this year, he's young for Frederick and worthy of a much higher spot on many lists. It won't be until he starts meeting and passing the acceptable age for a prospect without significant advancement that you can start popping him off lists.

IMO of course.

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