My Top 30 Vs. Yours.....

[crawdad]

Even without any progression from Rowell this year, he's young for Frederick and worthy of a much higher spot on many lists. It won't be until he starts meeting and passing the acceptable age for a prospect without significant advancement that you can start popping him off lists.

IMO of course.

The problem is that there was no improvement this year. None. You'd want to see something, just something . . . and it is hard to find anything good coming out of this year for him. I think he should be sitting in the 20s.

[LookinUp]

Even without any progression from Rowell this year, he's young for Frederick and worthy of a much higher spot on many lists. It won't be until he starts meeting and passing the acceptable age for a prospect without significant advancement that you can start popping him off lists.

IMO of course.

What part of his game makes him worthy of a higher spot?

[allstar1579]

The problem is that there was no improvement this year. None. You'd want to see something, just something . . . and it is hard to find anything good coming out of this year for him. I think he should be sitting in the 20s.

Yeah when the only thing you hear about a guy is his unwillingness to take instruction, that's going to move him backwards on a list for me.

[AVencill]

Even without any progression from Rowell this year, he's young for Frederick and worthy of a much higher spot on many lists. It won't be until he starts meeting and passing the acceptable age for a prospect without significant advancement that you can start popping him off lists.

IMO of course.

I saw too much of a bad thing the last two seasons covering the Keys to warrant Rowell a spot in my top 30 list this year, and I nearly considered not putting him in my list at all. For a first round 'talent', he certainly regressed despite learning a new position in 2009 and killing two spots of grass five feet apart in the outfield with his wide, unathletic stance. I can't remember any hitter on the team where I was more in rhythm with what the other team's catcher would be calling behind the plate. Six extra-base hits (two home runs) in his last 161 at-bats and 53 strikeouts don't add up to Billy Rowell - Top Prospect. Not in my book at least. His long swing and his inability to make solid contact are a negative. Don't get me wrong, when he has made solid contact with the ball, it jumps off the bat and it carries a good distance. I just need to see more of that before I place the prospect tag on him again.

Also, my gripe with him is the fact he's got to get on base more, it's that simple. More often that not Rowell would simply roll a grounder over to the right side of the infield, run it out and walk back into the dugout and grab his glove for the next half inning. His .284 OBP was the worst in the Carolina League among qualifiers with a minimum of 2.7 plate appearances per team game. He made miniscule improvement statisically, playing nine more games, getting about 40 more at-bats than in 2008 and scoring 12 more runs. He had two more base hits, two more homers, four total bases and two stolen bases more than his previous season in Frederick.

The only two things he has going for him at this point are his age and his bonus money, whatever's left of it. He's a nice kid and has been great to deal with whenever I've asked him for an interview, but at this point he needs to really focus and get his career in gear or else he's going to wind up selling sneakers in a NJ mall somewhere.

[PBR Street Gang]

Billy Rowell will be the first/poster child for every bad O's draft pick because he came of age during the internet chat room boom.

Adam Vencill saw him play more than any other poster on this board. I trust his judgment as should you all.

Look at his stats. They are horrible. They have always been horrible. He is the primary reason to beware of lower classification private school high schoolers who pad their stats against what is essentially Little Leaguers.

I hope MacPhail trades him in the off season so we won't ever have to look at his constantly over rated er, name in anyone's top anything ever again.

Bundy is another one who has an unusual amount of man love for producing virtually nothing.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Look at his stats. They are horrible. They have always been horrible. He is the primary reason to beware of lower classification private school high schoolers who pad their stats against what is essentially Little Leaguers.

I truly doubt whether any MLB team drafts a HS player in the first round (or even the 10th) on the basis of stats. When Jordan picked Rowell, it was after scouts and probably Jordan himself had watched Rowell in showcase games, workouts, and dozens of batting practice sessions. They timed his speed, graded his arm, analyzed his swing.

I don't personally know this to be true in Rowell's case, but I'm sure of it because that's how it works.

If HS stats mattered, then every HS kid with a gaudy stat line would get drafted in the first 10 rounds. But that doesn't happen. And actually the gaudy HS stat lines far outnumber the available draft slots.

[PBR Street Gang]

I truly doubt whether any MLB team drafts a HS player in the first round (or even the 10th) on the basis of stats. When Jordan picked Rowell, it was after scouts and probably Jordan himself had watched Rowell in showcase games, workouts, and dozens of batting practice sessions. They timed his speed, graded his arm, analyzed his swing.

I don't personally know this to be true in Rowell's case, but I'm sure of it because that's how it works.

If HS stats mattered, then every HS kid with a gaudy stat line would get drafted in the first 10 rounds. But that doesn't happen. And actually the gaudy HS stat lines far outnumber the available draft slots.

Please. I have a pretty good idea about how these guys are rated. If it was so foolproof we wouldn't ever have a bust.

Jordan's high school picks leave something to be desired IMNSHO.

[crawdad]

Please. I have a pretty good idea about how these guys are rated. If it was so foolproof we wouldn't ever have a bust.

Jordan's high school picks leave something to be desired IMNSHO.

I don't think anyone is saying any approach is foolproof.

Many players are drafted in projection . . . not performance. This is especially true of HS players. The question of inferior competition comes up more with college players, but even then there is a good deal of discussion about potential and projection.

[QBsILLEST1]

If the HSer was drafted specifically off of stats, then Hobgood ould have been a top 5 pick as a 1B and pitcher would be an afterthought. But I somewhat agree with the principle of what RZNJ is saying. I think Rowell may have been mis-evaluated. It seems that tools that he was labeled as having are actually nonexistent. But then OTOH, maybe he had the tools back when he was drafted and outgrew them(got too big) which affected the length of his swing.

[PBR Street Gang]

If the HSer was drafted specifically off of stats, then Hobgood ould have been a top 5 pick as a 1B and pitcher would be an afterthought. But I somewhat agree with the principle of what RZNJ is saying. I think Rowell may have been mis-evaluated. It seems that tools that he was labeled as having are actually nonexistent. But then OTOH, maybe he had the tools back when he was drafted and outgrew them(got too big) which affected the length of his swing.

Here's rep for you for pointing out something that I don't think anyone has ever even considered in the history of player development.

Thanks for your unique insight.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Please. I have a pretty good idea about how these guys are rated. If it was so foolproof we wouldn't ever have a bust.

Jordan's high school picks leave something to be desired IMNSHO.

If you have a pretty good idea about how these kids are rated, you wouldn't have said anything about padding stats. Stats are virtually irrelevant in rating teenage players.

And nobody said anything about foolproof. There is a lot of room for error in observation and scouting.

It just doesn't have anything to do with stats, as you suggested.

BTW the electronic tools for measuring and analyzing performance are becoming much more sophisticated, way beyond the stopwatch and speed gun. I think that within a couple of years the better HS players will do pre-draft workouts in MLB stadiums where equipment will exist for accurately tracking the speed and trajectory of a ball coming off the bat, the speed of throws, breaking down swing mechanics, and more.

"Old school" scouting will be much less important. Even so, the draft will still be a crapshoot to a large extent.

[allstar1579]

If you have a pretty good idea about how these kids are rated, you wouldn't have said anything about padding stats. Stats are virtually irrelevant in rating teenage players.

And nobody said anything about foolproof. There is a lot of room for error in observation and scouting.

It just doesn't have anything to do with stats, as you suggested.

BTW the electronic tools for measuring and analyzing performance are becoming much more sophisticated, way beyond the stopwatch and speed gun. I think that within a couple of years the better HS players will do pre-draft workouts in MLB stadiums where equipment will exist for accurately tracking the speed and trajectory of a ball coming off the bat, the speed of throws, breaking down swing mechanics, and more.

"Old school" scouting will be much less important. Even so, the draft will still be a crapshoot to a large extent.

No technology will end up replacing "old school" scouting. You see the problems with PitchFx labeling pitches correctly. Today you still see guys like Wayne Krivsky out with his stopwatch and clipboard scouting players. There is just no replacement for years of experience.

[PBR Street Gang]

Stats are virtually irrelevant in rating teenage players.

This is starting to get comical. Rep to you too.

[QBsILLEST1]

This is starting to get comical. Rep to you too.

Stats are not very useful when judging a HS player, thats what he means. LikeI said, if stats were everyting in hS, then Hobgood woulda been drafted as a 1B im the top 5 picks rather than a SP. They look at stuff and scouting reports mostly. This is because that the competition level varies so much in HS. Shoot, Matzek, the top ranked HS pitcher of 09 barely K'd a hitter an inning. This is because he pitched in a very competitive division. I think its funny you trying to belittle people's intelligence here when you were the one person to say the most ignorant thing about stats. You apparently have no idea what it takes to evaluate a player, especially in HS, but thanks for the rep

[Tony-OH]

Please. I have a pretty good idea about how these guys are rated. If it was so foolproof we wouldn't ever have a bust.

Jordan's high school picks leave something to be desired IMNSHO.

You are certainly welcome to have any opinion you like about Joe's selections, but the fact remains that most of his picks are not going to make it. It's just the nature of the beast.

The other fact is that Joe has only been selecting since 2005 when he took high schooler Brandon Snyder with the first pick. In that same draft he took high schooler Zach Britton. It takes longer for high school picks to make it to the big league and a lot are not going to make it, but when the top prospects lists start coming out, be sure to look for Snyder and Britton because they are going to be on most lists.

My only problem with Joe's picks over the years is his propensity to draft the same kind of guys in one draft and to draft too many high schoolers early.

However, that's just my personal preferences and overall, he's done a tremendous job refilling the minor leagues with talent IMHO.