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My Top 30 Vs. Yours.....


QBsILLEST1

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You are certainly welcome to have any opinion you like about Joe's selections, but the fact remains that most of his picks are not going to make it. It's just the nature of the beast.

The other fact is that Joe has only been selecting since 2005 when he took high schooler Brandon Snyder with the first pick. In that same draft he took high schooler Zach Britton. It takes longer for high school picks to make it to the big league and a lot are not going to make it, but when the top prospects lists start coming out, be sure to look for Snyder and Britton because they are going to be on most lists.

My only problem with Joe's picks over the years is his propensity to draft the same kind of guys in one draft and to draft too many high schoolers early.

However, that's just my personal preferences and overall, he's done a tremendous job refilling the minor leagues with talent IMHO.

Werent boith Erbe and Spoone HS picks from JJ as well? Erbe will just miss the top 100 list and is a previous top 100 prospect and Spoone probably would have been after 08 if not for the labrum.

Hes done more than a tremendous job IMO with all the picks hes made. Of course in the draft you win some and you lose some, but thats the inexact science the draft is. I think its funny people criticize what he does when folks dont realize that we have one of the best out there. IMO he did a beautiful job with the 09 draft, and the chances hes taking with the HSers is something that adds value to your system, not necessarily right away, but for Britton, we got him as a 3rd rounder out of HS. Now that hes 21, if drafted in 09 he would have been a 1st rounder no doubt, yet we got him for a 3rd round pick. Yes HS is risky, but when they work out for you, you get more value.

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The success rate should be based on some formula that gives higher scores for later round picks than early round picks and punishes for early round failures. Success, like most of the mundane statistics(such as oft quoted UZR) are highly subjective.

The bottom line is what was left on the table when a HS player was picked? Unfortunately the truth comes at a much later date when picking a high schooler so high. The Billy Rowell pick is the equivalence of swinging at a 3-0 curveball in the dirt with the bases loaded. Let's not forget Jordan made that pick.

However, I do believe this year's draft will turn out to be a horn o' plenty even though our latest 1st round HS pick will struggle his whole career(I hope not). Jordan had no choice really. The draft was top heavy with HS arms. Let's all hope he picked the best one, but I doubt it. Turner was the guy we'll regret passing on.

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The success rate should be based on some formula that gives higher scores for later round picks than early round picks and punishes for early round failures. Success, like most of the mundane statistics(such as oft quoted UZR) are highly subjective.

The bottom line is what was left on the table when a HS player was picked? Unfortunately the truth comes at a much later date when picking a high schooler so high. The Billy Rowell pick is the equivalence of swinging at a 3-0 curveball in the dirt with the bases loaded. Let's not forget Jordan made that pick.

However, I do believe this year's draft will turn out to be a horn o' plenty even though our latest 1st round HS pick will struggle his whole career(I hope not). Jordan had no choice really. The draft was top heavy with HS arms. Let's all hope he picked the best one, but I doubt it. Turner was the guy we'll regret passing on.

its not like we overdrafted Rowell, he was rated very highly by all the other teams. No one could have known what would happen with him in the future. And what about Turner makes you think we will regret him the most? What is so special about him? And, why is it that you think Hobby will struggle his hole career? What is it that you know, please enlighten me.....And for every bad 1st rounder he took, look at the good. He took Matusz and Wieters who both are i nthe majors now. He took Bergy, Berken Hernandez all of which are also in the majors now.

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The success rate should be based on some formula that gives higher scores for later round picks than early round picks and punishes for early round failures. Success, like most of the mundane statistics(such as oft quoted UZR) are highly subjective.

The bottom line is what was left on the table when a HS player was picked? Unfortunately the truth comes at a much later date when picking a high schooler so high. The Billy Rowell pick is the equivalence of swinging at a 3-0 curveball in the dirt with the bases loaded. Let's not forget Jordan made that pick.

However, I do believe this year's draft will turn out to be a horn o' plenty even though our latest 1st round HS pick will struggle his whole career(I hope not). Jordan had no choice really. The draft was top heavy with HS arms. Let's all hope he picked the best one, but I doubt it. Turner was the guy we'll regret passing on.

Oh, I'm sorry, I thought I was dealing with someone with a realistic understanding of how things work, but with a different opinion and not just your average run of the mill Jordan basher.

Go look over the history of the first round and look at the amount of busts that were either high school or college selections.

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Oh, I'm sorry, I thought I was dealing with someone with a realistic understanding of how things work, but with a different opinion and not just your average run of the mill Jordan basher.

Go look over the history of the first round and look at the amount of busts that were either high school or college selections.

It's been done. HS pitchers have the worst success rate.
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It's been done. HS pitchers have the worst success rate.

How many of em were from the O's?

1 bust out of 5 and hes not completely a bust yet, but regardless, of our 1st rounders since JJ took over, only Rowell has been unsuccessful. And sicne we are speaking about you bashing JJ, he means look over the Oriole's past 1st rounders with JJ. Go back and look at the 08 draft, with the 5th pick, we got Matusz, who Id say has made it the furthest of anyone in the draft. I take him over either Beckham, over Alvarez Hosmer and Smoak. 4 teams passed on Matusz, and right now, if it were done all over again knowing where the top 10 would be in a year, Matusz wouldnt be available at 1:5. That IMO shows the beauty of JJ.....

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I don't put much stock in how much of a bonus a HS player gets when it comes to my ranking of how good a prospect he is. I agree though, that it is certainly indicative of what the organization thinks they can be in the long run and I understand why some put guys like Givens, Coffey and Ohlman in their top 30. I do not believe it is a direct correlation since some never come close to living up to their bonus.

The way I look at it is talent is only a part of the equation of what makes up a prospect. They have to be able to put those tools to work in a professional setting, take instruction and make adjustments. Maybe the biggest adjustment is just playing baseball as a job. I like to see what a kid can do for atleast a few months before I even think about them in any ranking. A college kid you can project a little more because you have a track record with competition better than HS. But with almost all HS kids, you don't really know what you have yet. I want to see the attitude, the work ethic, the willingness and ability to take instruction and make the adjustments. I will post my top 30 in a bit, then you can disect mine too. :D

Lastly, I think there are a bunch of players in the organization that would be ranked between 30-50 this year that would have been top 20 guys just a few years ago. You can say JJ has missed on Rowell, or Beato, or whomever you want, but to say that he hasn't been an outstanding amateur scouting director since he was hired is ridiculous. Every team misses on a first round pick now and then. JJ is not affraid to take a chance and I like it. We have improved not only the quantity of talented players with a chance to be MLers some day, but we also have more players with higher end ceilings...star potential...than ever before.

JJ is doing a hell of a job and it's obvious his scouts are in place and it is his show! He's accountable for who he drafts and I like the way he does things.

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Certainly true, but I think we can all agree that it was a generic study. Real world application is not all that much.
I forgot what the percentages were for each category. I do remember that the HS pitcher success rate was around 8%(?). I think college position player was the best percentage. I tried to Google it but to no avail. It might have been done by a poster here. It was well done.
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I don't put much stock in how much of a bonus a HS player gets when it comes to my ranking of how good a prospect he is. I agree though, that it is certainly indicative of what the organization thinks they can be in the long run and I understand why some put guys like Givens, Coffey and Ohlman in their top 30. I do not believe it is a direct correlation since some never come close to living up to their bonus.

The way I look at it is talent is only a part of the equation of what makes up a prospect. They have to be able to put those tools to work in a professional setting, take instruction and make adjustments. Maybe the biggest adjustment is just playing baseball as a job. I like to see what a kid can do for atleast a few months before I even think about them in any ranking. A college kid you can project a little more because you have a track record with competition better than HS. But with almost all HS kids, you don't really know what you have yet. I want to see the attitude, the work ethic, the willingness and ability to take instruction and make the adjustments. I will post my top 30 in a bit, then you can disect mine too. :D

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I dont put any stock into what the signing bonus was, its unimportant. Turner signed for $6 Mil and Matzek signed for 3.5 Mil or somethign close to that, yet Matzek was the top ranked HS pitcher. The bonus is very unimportant. Now, when judging a prospect, I look at not only performance and mental aspects, but also their scouting reports. This tells me what kind of ceiling that they have, their body type and weight will tell you how much projection that they have. Just because some of the HS guys have no track records beyond HS, they shouldnt be penalized. They have as much iof not more potential than the others. A 1st rounder like Hobgood has pedigree also, so based on that alone he should be rated high. The reasons that Givens, Ohlman and Coffey are in the top 30 is because of their ceiling and abilities. Signing bonus aside, all 3 of these guys could have went the 1st day. Givens was originally a possible mid 1st rounder, Coffey was also a possible 1st rounder until her blew out his elbow. Ohlman could have been a 2nd or 3rd rounder as well, so their talent levels are up there. If Givens would have had a big spring and shown improvement, he coulda been a top 5 pick, but that didint happen.....

Basically Im just saying that you should include the HS, and JUCO kids, keep their scouting reports and talents in mind......

I forgot what the percentages were for each category. I do remember that the HS pitcher success rate was around 8%(?). I think college position player was the best percentage. I tried to Google it but to no avail. It might have been done by a poster here. It was well done.

Once again that is a general study. If you look at what JJ has done, hes done better than those odds.

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IMO, the signing bonus should be considered an indicator of perceived talent and ceiling for the 2009 draft picks only - since some have not played or have played very little.

I'm not talking about arguing the relative talent and actual signing bonus between Matzek, Hobgood and Wheeler, but more within our own draft picks. I'm sure there are exceptions, but the relative bonus should be considered a reasonable indicator at this point, IMO.

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I forgot what the percentages were for each category. I do remember that the HS pitcher success rate was around 8%(?). I think college position player was the best percentage. I tried to Google it but to no avail. It might have been done by a poster here. It was well done.

Instead of deciding not to draft a pitcher in the first round, one should study the type of pitchers drafted in the first round and why they do not succeed. One should also study the pitchers who are drafted in later rounds and why some of them do succeed.

IMO, in the mid-late 90s, teams focused on the radar gun and some HS kids like Colt Griffin were drafted very high even if they might have suspect command. I believe major league teams are doing a significantly better job with drafting HS pitchers (seeking better control, delivery and secondary pitches) in the first round and that the success rate of HS pitchers will improve dramatically.

Already, HS first round pitchers from recent drafts like Kershaw and Porcello are paying strong dividend for their teams. Jarrod Parker and others have moved through their farm systems with strong results - though Parker may now be injured.

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Instead of deciding not to draft a pitcher in the first round, one should study the type of pitchers drafted in the first round and why they do not succeed. One should also study the pitchers who are drafted in later rounds and why some of them do succeed.

IMO, in the mid-late 90s, teams focused on the radar gun and some HS kids like Colt Griffin were drafted very high even if they might have suspect command. I believe major league teams are doing a significantly better job with drafting HS pitchers (seeking better control, delivery and secondary pitches) in the first round and that the success rate of HS pitchers will improve dramatically.

Already, HS first round pitchers from recent drafts like Kershaw and Porcello are paying strong dividend for their teams. Jarrod Parker and others have moved through their farm systems with strong results - though Parker may now be injured.

Yes, the top notch HS pitchers are seeming to fare much better than this 8% idea. Is that 8% supposed to be for all 1st round HS pitchers, or HS pitchers in general? It sucks that Parker is injured though ebcause he is such a good young pitcher. He was on the cusp of being one of the top 4 or 5 pitchers in the minors, now the injur will affect that...

And also, for college pitchers, whatever the percentage may be, its subjective. Obviously a highceiling high floor safwe pitcher like Matusz has a better chance of being an aboive average pitcher than a more raw guy like James Paxton, yet theyre both 1st rounders and lumped into the same category. It depends on the pitcher.

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Yes, the top notch HS pitchers are seeming to fare much better than this 8% idea. Is that 8% supposed to be for all 1st round HS pitchers, or HS pitchers in general? It sucks that Parker is injured though ebcause he is such a good young pitcher. He was on the cusp of being one of the top 4 or 5 pitchers in the minors, now the injur will affect that...

And also, for college pitchers, whatever the percentage may be, its subjective. Obviously a highceiling high floor safwe pitcher like Matusz has a better chance of being an aboive average pitcher than a more raw guy like James Paxton, yet theyre both 1st rounders and lumped into the same category. It depends on the pitcher.

I wish the guy who did the study would repost it. Like I said it was well done. The study was done for 1st rounders only. It seems to me he was a regular.

All one really has to do is look up drafts from say 2006 and later to see the names who have basically panned out. 2004 and later for HS pitchers.

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I wish the guy who did the study would repost it. Like I said it was well done. The study was done for 1st rounders only. It seems to me he was a regular.

All one really has to do is look up drafts from say 2006 and later to see the names who have basically panned out. 2004 and later for HS pitchers.

It was Trea, he views the draft similarly to you, that we need to only draft college position prospects regardless of if there are pitchers(college or HS) who are better picks.....

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