Can Ichiro get 3,000?

[scOtt]

He has 1434 Japanese League hits, for 3435 total. He needs 1248 to tie Rose. That's the equivalent of six seasons of 208, or eight of 156.

I tried to run his numbers in ESPN's version of Bill James' Favorite Toy, but it's not working for me.

My BROCK2 spreadsheet swags that he'll be able to play into his 40s, and will collect at least another 950 hits. So that suggests it's plausible.

I'd guess he has a 10-20% chance of catching Rose.

I meant total, which means he needs 758 to catch Pete. That's like 4 off years for Ichiro...

[mrbig1]

Ichiro is one of the greatest players I've seen in my life time. Not only with the bat but in right field with the glove and arm. I've seen him gun down so many players at the plate that I have just lost count. How many players have just played 9 years who are already a shoe in for the hall of fame. He may reach 3,000 but who cares. He's still the greatest rather he hits 3,000 or not. The world baseball classic when Korea had the game won. All they had to do was walk Ichiro, but pride got in the way and once again he comes through with the big hit to win the game. Something he had done again and again. Time to get his cooperstown speech ready.

[Migrant Redbird]

Impossible? No, not at all.

I did say "convincing". Your criteria may be lower than mine.