What to make of Matt Hobgood's season?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, like I said, and as its mentioned in reports on him, he gets stronger and pitches better as he gets deeper into the game against high schoolers. Its not hard to think that if he gave up 2 runs in the first and is cruising through the next 4 innings that if not under strict pitch limits he could stretch that out to 6 or 7 IP which would make his ERA atleast look slightly more favorable.

And assuming development is something that you do, Im projecting himn to improve his stuff. By keeping his front side closed, its going to benefit him in more than 1 way. Im sure the O's know this about him since it is able to be read in nearly any somewhat in depth report on him.

This important. You can't read high school reports into actual minor league results. You might keep it in mind when projecting, but when you actually disregard the results (or alter them to fit the reports) you're not only treasuring the hope inherent in projection over the empirical evidence, you're tainting the empirical evidence.

[QBsILLEST1]

This important. You can't read high school reports into actual minor league results. You might keep it in mind when projecting, but to actually disregard the results (or alter them to fit the reports) you're not only treasuring the hope inherent in projection over the empirical evidence, you're tainting the empirical evidence.

What results am I disregarding? He was on a pitch limit and it kept him from being able to go deep into the games. Its not that he lost his stamina. Maybe Im not getting the point of what you are saying, but hes on very strict limits, and this keeps us from being able to see and evaluate one of his strengths.....

In his scouting reports, it says he gets stronger as he goes. This is a physical strength, I dont think its gonna be different if your in pro ball or HS ball.

[Lucky Jim]

What results am I disregarding? He was on a pitch limit and it kept him from being able to go deep into the games. Its not that he lost his stamina. Maybe Im not getting the point of what you are saying, but hes on very strict limits, and this keeps us from being able to see and evaluate one of his strengths.....

In his scouting reports, it says he gets stronger as he goes. This is a physical strength, I dont think its gonna be different if your in pro ball or HS ball.

My point is that you seem to be revising his actual results based on things that never happened. It's not a big deal. My only point is that his numbers are what they are. No more. No less.

You've already acknowledged that he might have been tired after a long season. How would this effect his ability to go deep in games?

Further, how many scouting reports are we talking about? And what do they mean about "getting stronger"?

In the end, three of his last four starts were good. Which - for me - is silver lining enough. I don't need (or think it prudent) to assume a lower ERA because he got yanked after five.

[LookinUp]

This is very easy to answer.

It's way too early to know what we have with Hobgood. Nothing from this year's numbers indicate in any way what he's capable of, IMO. There are so many physical, mental and mechanical changes that he will undergo that we have no idea where he'll end up as a finished product. I predict he'll be somewhere between a 0 and an 80 on the scouting scales.

[QBsILLEST1]

My point is that you seem to be revising his actual results based on things that never happened. It's not a big deal. My only point is that his numbers are what they are. No more. No less.

You've already acknowledged that he might have been tired after a long season. How would this effect his ability to go deep in games?

Further, how many scouting reports are we talking about? And what do they mean about "getting stronger"?

In the end, three of his last four starts were good. Which - for me - is silver lining enough. I don't need (or think it prudent) to assume a lower ERA because he got yanked after five.

I see what your saying. Maybe I shoulda just said somethign along the lines of" Its tough to keep your ERA down when hes on a strict pitch limit" rather than go into it the way I did, I can see what you are saying. In all actuality, ERA probably isnt a good source to judge is results anyway. Regardless Ill be interested to see how he does next season....

Baseball beginnings is about the only good report I can find on him. One thing I will mention though is that from 08 to 09, he gained some MPH on his fastball. Itll be interesting to see if he gains more. Reports say that he was pitching 88-90 in 08, then in 09 he gained more. I believe we will be seeing him throw harder than where hes at right now.

And if he was throwing 88-91 when Joe Jordan saw him, he wouldnt have been the top ranked HS pitcher on his board....that simple

[Lucky Jim]

I see what your saying. Maybe I shoulda just said somethign along the lines of" Its tough to keep your ERA down when hes on a strict pitch limit" rather than go into it the way I did, I can see what you are saying. In all actuality, ERA probably isnt a good source to judge is results anyway. Regardless Ill be interested to see how he does next season....

Baseball beginnings is about the only good report I can find on him. One thing I will mention though is that from 08 to 09, he gained some MPH on his fastball. Itll be interesting to see if he gains more. Reports say that he was pitching 88-90 in 08, then in 09 he gained more. I believe we will be seeing him throw harder than where hes at right now.

And if he was throwing 88-91 when Joe Jordan saw him, he wouldnt have been the top ranked HS pitcher on his board....that simple

I agree with all of this. It's sort-of a precautionary step to make sure we don't let our bias intrude upon our evaluation. I didn't mean to sound too highly critical, because it's a small point, but one that I think can help keep our analysis rigorous.*

*As far as message board analysis goes.

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree with all of this. It's sort-of a precautionary step to make sure we don't let our bias intrude upon our evaluation. I didn't mean to sound too highly critical, because it's a small point, but one that I think can help keep our analysis rigorous.*

*As far as message board analysis goes.

Most definitely. I gotta be more careful with what I say now that your back around

[Tony-OH]

Maybe I can shed some light after talking with a few people about him including Joe Jordan. First off, his numbers mean absolutely nothing at Bluefield due to several factors, but mostly because he was not in pitching shape when he showed up at Bluefield due to the time off since his high school season.

The Orioles wanted to give him a chance to throw a bit this summer using his same mechanics and for him to get a feel for pro ball. The results were not important, and no one is worried over his less than steller initial results.

This offseason is huge one for him and the Orioles because they get to really work with him for the first time in the Instructional League. Afterward he will be given a professional strength and conditioning program to follow over the winter and possibly a throwing program to start in January. He'll then go through his first professional spring training and will most likely be assigned to Delmarva if all goes well.

I'll be worried if I go see him in Delmarva next summer and he's throwing 86-90, but I doubt that will be the case. Another thing to remember is that he's not a huge velocity guy although he has sat in the 93-95 MPH range in a few of his late starts in high school. He'll use more two-seamers in the pros so I would not be surprised if he's a 90-93 guy for a few years. Remember, Zach Britton was a 87-91 guy until last year when his four seamer blossomed into a 93-95 MPH pitch and his two seamers jumped into the 90-92 range.

It's way too early to draw any conclusions from his Bluefield season and his ceiling remains very high based off his pre-draft scouting reports.

[Flip217]

'nuff said!

[QBsILLEST1]

Maybe I can shed some light after talking with a few people about him including Joe Jordan. First off, his numbers mean absolutely nothing at Bluefield due to several factors, but mostly because he was not in pitching shape when he showed up at Bluefield due to the time off since his high school season.

The Orioles wanted to give him a chance to throw a bit this summer using his same mechanics and for him to get a feel for pro ball. The results were not important, and no one is worried over his less than steller initial results.

This offseason is huge one for him and the Orioles because they get to really work with him for the first time in the Instructional League. Afterwards he will be given a professional strength and conditioning program to follow over the winter and possibly a throwing program to start in January. He'll then go through his first professional spring trianing and will most likely be assigned to Delmarva is all goes well.

I'll be worried if I go see him in Delmarva next summer and he's throwing 86-90, but I doubt that will be the case. Another thing to remember is that he's not a huge velocity guy although he has sat in the 93-95 MPH range in a few of his late starts in high school. He'll use more two-seamers in the pros so I would not be surprised if he's a 90-93 guy for a few years. Remember, Zach Britton was a 87-91 guy until last year when his four seamer blossomed into a 93-95 MPH pitch and his two seamers jumped into the 90-92 range.

It's way too early to draw any conclusions from his Bluefield season and his ceiling remains very high based off his pre-draft scouting reports.

Thank you Tony, that sounds about right to me. I was also doing a little bit of searching the internet and I found someone else's firt hand view of him from one of his dominant performances, they said:

Hobgood report: Good news! Matt had by far his best outing last night....five innings against the team just ahead of the Orioles, Princeton Rays....2 hits, no runs, 3 strikeouts, no walks....he was dominating last night for the first time- struck out first two hitters he faced in the first- he mixed in a slider much more often with a much better located fastball- 94-95 and with a very nice curve from time to time...His control was MUCH improved!

Wonder if he will spend the rest of the season in Bluefield or if they will move him to finish the year at say Aberdeen or Delmarva or even Frederick possibly???

I know this guys opinion doesnt carry much weight, but I wanted to dispute what baseball said above that Hobgood never threw above 91 and it was always in the dirt.....

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-orioles&tid=45261

[Enjoy Terror]

Matt Wieters didn't have quite the season we had intended for him with the Orioles, I don't think that means his initial numbers are a pattern for ultimate failure. Likewise with Hobgood, he's adjusting to a new experience and I think he deserves time to get acclimated.

[Stotle]

I wouldn't pay attention to much, if anything, having to do with Hobgood's first taste of pro ball. His success will depend on how much growth the BAL organization can coax out of him. If cleaning-up his mechanics some, working on his pitches and improving his approach can lead to sizable improvements, Hobgood could be an impressive ML starter. If it turns out there simply isn't much room left for growth, he could be a very solid, but not special, member of the rotation. It's where Jordan makes his bread, so hopefully he nailed this in identifying areas to stimulate in order to facilitate the needed growth/improvement.

While I would love to see the same progression as we've seen from Britton, I think it's worth noting they are two different body types coming out of HS -- with Britton clearly having more physical projection remaining. Hobgood can continue to get into better shape, and perhaps a little stronger, but there isn't the same amount of projection there (in my humble opinion).

[Dunk35]

My buddy played against him this past season at Bluefield. He said Hobgood was throwing some 84 mph fastballs in this game and when he hit against him, he just dumped curveballs against him. Don't get me wrong, I hope this kid turns out great but this coming first hand was kind of a downer...

[Stotle]

My buddy played against him this past season at Bluefield. He said Hobgood was throwing some 84 mph fastballs in this game and when he hit against him, he just dumped curveballs against him. Don't get me wrong, I hope this kid turns out great but this coming first hand was kind of a downer...

I believe Matt had close to two months where he wasn't playing -- as Tony said above, Bluefield seems to have been about letting Matt get his feet wet. The organization probably won't begin working with him in earnest until this off-season.

[Tony-OH]

I wouldn't pay attention to much, if anything, having to do with Hobgood's first taste of pro ball. His success will depend on how much growth the BAL organization can coax out of him. If cleaning-up his mechanics some, working on his pitches and improving his approach can lead to sizable improvements, Hobgood could be an impressive ML starter. If it turns out there simply isn't much room left for growth, he could be a very solid, but not special, member of the rotation. It's where Jordan makes his bread, so hopefully he nailed this in identifying areas to stimulate in order to facilitate the needed growth/improvement.

While I would love to see the same progression as we've seen from Britton, I think it's worth noting they are two different body types coming out of HS -- with Britton clearly having more physical projection remaining. Hobgood can continue to get into better shape, and perhaps a little stronger, but there isn't the same amount of projection there (in my humble opinion).

As you know, there is more to progression than just body type and by no means was a I suggesting the same progression as Britton in my post. I was just using a name of a pitcher people would know who throws harder now than he did when he was drafted.

A lot of pitchers actually lose some velocity in the pros because they were throwing more than pitching in high school and even college in some cases. This is why you see a guy's velocity reported as 94-95 and they consistently sit 91-92.