Roch: Would you?

[Sports Guy]

Wow how things change.

Arrieta went from being one of the Big 3 to he might not even pitch for 6 years.

Britton went from being one of the O's top three prospects on many lists to he will never be in the league for 6 years.

Waring went from O's Minor Leaguer of the Year who has more power than Snyder to he may never amount to anything.

Depending of who is saying it and who is reading it, these guys futures go up and down like a yo-yo.

I like Arrieta a lot and think he will have a good career...but it is up in the air as to what kind of career he will have.

Britton is a good prospect that hasn't proven anything at the upper levels...Just because he is one of the O's top prospects doesn't mean he will pan out.

Waring shouldn't be on the radar until he shows it in upper levels.

Your post acted as if these guys would definitely be around for 18 years...That is wrong.

[Sports Guy]

This is an easy yes for me.

I like Arrieta and I like Britton, but they aren't surefire prospects and one of them is still a couple years off. Waring is a throw-in prospect for me. I have a hard time believing that's all it would take to get Johnson, however.

In any case, for a guy who I believe is a No. 1 starter right now, that's an easy trade to make. Neither Arrieta nor Britton have the upside to be what Johnson is now.

His stuff is electric, he commands it well, he misses bats, and while he's not an extreme ground ball guy, he gets his fair share of them.

I'd offer an extension to buy out his last two years of arbitration.

Small sample size, but he's pitched pretty well against the AL East this year...

vs. NY - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 K, 2 BB

vs. TOR - 9 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 6 K, 3 BB

vs. TB - 13 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 13 K, 6 BB

vs. AL East prior to 2009...

vs. BOS - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 HR, 5 K, 4 BB

vs. TOR - 5.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 K, 6 BB

vs. TB - 13.1 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 15 K, 5 BB

Yea, this was the difference for me after thinking about it.

[bej6789]

What if Lackey isn't an option? I don't mean that in the sense that we could still throw a few extra million per year at him... I mean he truely will not come to Baltimore, as in he's about as interested in coming to Baltimore as Steve Kline. How would everybody feel about the deal if that were true?

[clapdiddy]

I would do this deal in a heartbeat. I'd even throw in Snyder if necessary.

[GotNitro]

What if Lackey isn't an option? I don't mean that in the sense that we could still throw a few extra million per year at him... I mean he truely will not come to Baltimore, as in he's about as interested in coming to Baltimore as Steve Kline. How would everybody feel about the deal if that were true?

What makes anyone think Johnson wants to be in Baltimore enough to sign an extention without going to FA?

Two year rental.

[PHRESH]

It would be tough to give up Arrieta and Britton, but in the end, I would take the deal. I would rather take a young, proven TOR in JJ than gamble on Arrieta and Britton equaling his success. I would prefer an extension agreement prior to a deal though.

[wildcard]

I like Arrieta a lot and think he will have a good career...but it is up in the air as to what kind of career he will have.

Britton is a good prospect that hasn't proven anything at the upper levels...Just because he is one of the O's top prospects doesn't mean he will pan out.

Waring shouldn't be on the radar until he shows it in upper levels.

Your post acted as if these guys would definitely be around for 18 years...That is wrong.

There is nothing definite about Johnson either. He has already had TJ surgery. What goes next? And why do you think he can be signed for more then two years? Or is two years enough for what is being proposed to be traded?

I am not saying whether this is a good or bad trade. I don't know enough about Josh Johnson to say. The only comment I am making is that MacPhail would be giving up potential 18 years of eligibility of three guys that will no doubt be on the O's top 10 prospect this fall for 2 years of eligibility of Johnson.

Is that a good deal? I truly do not know. It could be Bedard in reverse. It could be great.

[crawdad]

This is an easy yes for me.

I like Arrieta and I like Britton, but they aren't surefire prospects and one of them is still a couple years off. Waring is a throw-in prospect for me. I have a hard time believing that's all it would take to get Johnson, however.

In any case, for a guy who I believe is a No. 1 starter right now, that's an easy trade to make. Neither Arrieta nor Britton have the upside to be what Johnson is now.

His stuff is electric, he commands it well, he misses bats, and while he's not an extreme ground ball guy, he gets his fair share of them.

I'd offer an extension to buy out his last two years of arbitration.

Small sample size, but he's pitched pretty well against the AL East this year...

vs. NY - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 K, 2 BB

vs. TOR - 9 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 6 K, 3 BB

vs. TB - 13 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 13 K, 6 BB

vs. AL East prior to 2009...

vs. BOS - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 HR, 5 K, 4 BB

vs. TOR - 5.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 K, 6 BB

vs. TB - 13.1 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 15 K, 5 BB

I think this is the right move at the wrong time. To me, he looks like a 2. His stuff should play better in the environment he is pitching in, but he is still an amazing talent. If acquiring him was combined with an aggressive push for a solid first and third baseman . . . I could get behind this.

Trading for him and banking on success several years down the line is not the right way to go about things. If you are acquiring a pitcher, he better be immediately part of the plan. Arrieta and Britton have a poor chance becoming the kind of pitcher Johnson is. Waring has a lot of helium attached to him, but there are also a whole lot of questions. None of the three are untouchable. I just think this might be a poor use of resources.

I think this jumps the gun.

Getting a position player, I could understand. A pitcher . . . not so much. A year from now? Maybe.

[ejf1025]

What makes anyone think Johnson wants to be in Baltimore enough to sign an extention without going to FA?

Two year rental.

Money talks. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were amenable to us buying out his last two seasons and extending him another 2 or 3.

5/50ish?

[GotNitro]

Money talks. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were amenable to us buying out his last two seasons and extending him another 2 or 3.

5/50ish?

I would rather sign Lackey for 5/75 and keep our prospects.

[PHRESH]

I know he's pitched very well, but is anyone worried about his elbow?

(For the record, I like the deal for the O's)

[ejf1025]

I would rather sign Lackey for 5/75 and keep our prospects.

Really?

Johnson is 25 (only 2 years old that Arrieta).

Have you seen his numbers? Honestly, take a look.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml

He's on par with Lackey right now...and will almost assuredly live up to his contract as opposed to Lackey.

I'd look to keep Britton...but Arrieta/Waring and another prospect for Johnson would be a fantastic move.

[Mackus]

Really?

Johnson is 25 (only 2 years old that Arrieta).

Have you seen his numbers? Honestly, take a look.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml

He's on par with Lackey right now...and will almost assuredly live up to his contract as opposed to Lackey.

I'd look to keep Britton...but Arrieta/Waring and another prospect for Johnson would be a fantastic move.

Johnson is pitching in a huge park in the NL. Lackey is pitching in the AL. While I agree Johnson is a very attractive target, I'd much rather pay just cash for Lackey than give up a boatload of talent (and it would take a ton) to get Johnson and then have to extend him for at least Lackey money.

[ejf1025]

Johnson is pitching in a huge park in the NL. Lackey is pitching in the AL. While I agree Johnson is a very attractive target, I'd much rather pay just cash for Lackey than give up a boatload of talent (and it would take a ton) to get Johnson and then have to extend him for at least Lackey money.

I accounted for the parks, I think Johnson could easily pitch Lackey-like right now.

Is Arrieta, Waring and a notch below Britton a boatload?

To get a #1-2 starter for the next 5 years?

[Mackus]

I accounted for the parks, I think Johnson could easily pitch Lackey-like right now.

Is Arrieta, Waring and a notch below Britton a boatload?

To get a #1-2 starter for the next 5 years?

No, that's not a boatload. That's also not something the Marlins would consider for Johnson.

He's more valuable than Bedard was when we traded him. That type of package is what it is going to take to land him.

Lackey for just cash is a much better option than Johnson, considering how much talent it would take to acquire Johnson.