Roch: Would you?

[ejf1025]

No, that's not a boatload. That's also not something the Marlins would consider for Johnson.

He's more valuable than Bedard was when we traded him. That type of package is what it is going to take to land him.

Lackey for just cash is a much better option than Johnson, considering how much talent it would take to acquire Johnson.

Then you are arguing a different scenario.

Most of us are operating here based on what Roch put out there...

If you care to explain what you think his real trade value will be, I'll consider your position more carefully.

[Mackus]

Then you are arguing a different scenario.

Most of us are operating here based on what Roch put out there...

If you care to explain what you think his real trade value will be, I'll consider your position more carefully.

Roch said Britton in the deal, but you changed it to something less than Britton.

I'll operate under the assumption that Arrieta, Britton, and Waring doesn't get you Johnson. Even if it did, I'd still prefer Lackey, Arrieta, Britton, and Waring to Johnson.

[ejf1025]

Roch said Britton in the deal, but you changed it to something less than Britton.

I'll operate under the assumption that Arrieta, Britton, and Waring doesn't get you Johnson. Even if it did, I'd still prefer Lackey, Arrieta, Britton, and Waring to Johnson.

I said I would throw in Britton for an extension. I stick by it.

I think Lackey will be grossly overpaid.

[ChaosLex]

It would be tough to give up Arrieta and Britton, but in the end, I would take the deal. I would rather take a young, proven TOR in JJ than gamble on Arrieta and Britton equaling his success. I would prefer an extension agreement prior to a deal though.

I doubt the Marlins would give us extra time to extend Johnson.

That would kill the deal for AM, IMO.

[Mackus]

I said I would throw in Britton for an extension. I stick by it.

I think Lackey will be grossly overpaid.

Why, besides the difference between FA values and the last two years of arbitration, do you think Lackey would be so much cheaper to extend than Johnson?

Also, Lackey has nothing but a history of being a workhorse. Johnson will be over 200 innings for the first time this year. He's probably going to be ok going forward health wise because he's already had his TJ surgery, but he's still a risk.

I have little doubt that both with pitch very well over the next 2-3 years. Johnson will win out over a longer term. But would you rather have Lackey and the mountain of talent it would have taken to get Johnson or just Johnson?

We're not yet in a position where it is wise for us to give up 3-4 of our top 5-10 prospects to get one player, even if it is a young player. That is a move you make when that one player makes you a likely playoff contender. If in two years we're sitting on an 89-73 record, and someone like Johnson is available, then you trade something like Hobgood, Givens, and another top 10 prospect for that guy to push you over the top (all examples, of course).

[RandyM]

http://masnsports.com/2009/09/would-you.html

This is an interesting idea, but I don't think it's enough on the O's side.

Now imagine if we could put together a package for Johnson and Hanley Ramirez...

Now that would be a gamble.

Do you think that would be the best package that the Marlins could get for Johnson?

The Phillies got Lee for more than that and he had only 1 1/2 years left. With Lee getting slightly more money than Johnson would get in 2 arb years.

Remember what the Sox where throwing at King Felix?

Bucholtz, Bard, Masterson, Hagadone, and Bowden. That was or 2 1/2 years of King Felix. They also offered slightly less for Halladay and that was for 1 1/2 years for Halladay.

My question is, how would Arrieta, Britton, and Waring even remotely come close to those "rumored" offers? Plus, you would want the Marlins to allow the O's time to negotiate an extension?

Is King Felix that much better than Johnson? Here comes the injury concern statements. Why wouldn't the Sox offer Bucholtz and Bard for Johnson?

Maybe if we add in Erbe into that package we could compete with what the Padres got for Peavy, but that was a little different. Peavy has a huge contract and a NTC. You can say Johnson would be a salary dump, but different than Peavy. Again, we couldn't even compete with the Peavy package with this type of deal.

Arrieta is closer to Bowden than he is to Bucholtz, Bard, or Masterson.

Britton is a Hagadone/Knapp type prospect.

Waring, hey if we valued him that much we wouldn't have been going out of our way to get a young 3rd like Bell. More power to us if we can portray him as that high of a prospect.

[RShack]

What happened to him for 2007?

[Mackus]

What happened to him for 2007?

Was sidelined with elbow soreness most of the year, then in August finally had the TJ surgery, that's why he missed so much time in 2007 and 2008.

[LookitsPuck]

No thanks.

[NoVaO]

I think this is the right move at the wrong time. To me, he looks like a 2. His stuff should play better in the environment he is pitching in, but he is still an amazing talent. If acquiring him was combined with an aggressive push for a solid first and third baseman . . . I could get behind this.

Trading for him and banking on success several years down the line is not the right way to go about things. If you are acquiring a pitcher, he better be immediately part of the plan. Arrieta and Britton have a poor chance becoming the kind of pitcher Johnson is. Waring has a lot of helium attached to him, but there are also a whole lot of questions. None of the three are untouchable. I just think this might be a poor use of resources.

I think this jumps the gun.

Getting a position player, I could understand. A pitcher . . . not so much. A year from now? Maybe.

What makes him more of a 2 in your book?

I think it's important people don't overrate park factors here. He's got the stuff of a No. 1...he has the numbers to back it up even when you adjust them for league and park.

Now, you say a year from now maybe it's worth considering. That's my take on Lackey. But it's mostly because of his age. I expect him to start declining if not by 2011, then by 2012. Johnson is much younger and his arm doesn't have a lot of mileage on it. Does the TJ surgery concern me? Yeah, but he's bounced back from it as good as one could have hoped.

The circumstances change a bit if you alter the deal to what the Marlins would actually ask for, but in terms of what Roch is suggesting, I think it's a deal you have to make.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I'm wondering why Roch went with such a specific hypothetical.

[Mackus]

I'm wondering why Roch went with such a specific hypothetical.

Did you read the article? Someone proposed the question to him. Not someone from the organization, so its obviously not a real rumor or anything, just an interesting question.

[RandyM]

A few things.

1. Don't say you are for the trade and then thow in that you would need an extension in place also. That means you're NOT for the trade.

2. Saying you'd rather sign Lackey and give up no players is great. However, there's probably a snowball's chance in hell that Lackey would sign here for Burnett money.

3. My initial response was no but chances are that neither Britton or Arrieta becomes Johhson and even if they do, it might take years. I've watched Johnson. He's impressive. I think I'd pull the trigger and hope like hell I could extend him or resign him. Our rotation would be looking pretty good with:

Johnson

Guthrie

Bergesen

Matusz

Tillman

And we'd still have some depth with Hernandez, Erbe, and Johnson all at AAA or the majors. We'd have a little bit of a hole in the system until this draft's young guns would come of age but we'd have a pretty young rotation for at least two years. Tough call but I'd roll the dice on this one.

I agree with you. The only question I have, what has a better chance of happening.

- Lackey signing with Baltimore for Burnett money

- Arrieta or Britton having a year anytime in their careers as good as Johnson's this year?

That last statement isn't a rip at Arrieta or Britton (I actually like him the best). But there are more could haves, should haves in regards to prospects than actual production, especially pitching.

What are excuses about Jeffrey Hammonds, Alex Ochoa, Jimmy Haynes, Rocky Coppinger, Arthur Rhodes (he actual had a decent career), Hayden Penn etc.. For everyone 15 of them you get Mike Mussina.

Jeffrey Hammonds - injuries

Alex Ochoa - free swinger

Rocky Coppinger - weight

Arthur Rhodes - no secondary stuff for a starter

Hayden Penn - rushed, couldn't control his change when he came up.

Of course Arrieta or Britton are much better prospects than those "jokers". We didn't think of them that highly back then :scratchchinhmm:

[Hank Scorpio]

What's kind of funny in that post by Roch is that someone posted the numbers, and Melvin Mora has better numbers this year than Beltre.

Yikes.

[crawdad]

What makes him more of a 2 in your book?

I think it's important people don't overrate park factors here. He's got the stuff of a No. 1...he has the numbers to back it up even when you adjust them for league and park.

Now, you say a year from now maybe it's worth considering. That's my take on Lackey. But it's mostly because of his age. I expect him to start declining if not by 2011, then by 2012. Johnson is much younger and his arm doesn't have a lot of mileage on it. Does the TJ surgery concern me? Yeah, but he's bounced back from it as good as one could have hoped.

The circumstances change a bit if you alter the deal to what the Marlins would actually ask for, but in terms of what Roch is suggesting, I think it's a deal you have to make.

When I adjust them for park and league, I do not get a 1 pitcher. I think his performance is a bit over his head this year. He is someone who I think settles in as a 3.50 pitcher in the NL and a 3.80 in the AL. I understand what ERA=, xFIP, tRA, etc. say. I know my perspective on him is slightly lower than scouting and the metrics suggest.

I guess I should be more to the point:

1) I think this might be his best season.

2) I don't like how he is shying away from using his changeup.

3) He is not missing enough bats when he is in the zone . . . I think this will come back to hurt him. He seems to be getting too many strike outs by getting swings outside of the zone. This is likely to add innings in the AL East and he has had past arm trouble and his throwing schedule has been accelerated greatly over the past two years. Movng to the AL East will result in him increasing his usage of the slider to 30% or so. Even though I like his motion as being easy enough . . . that kind of concerns me that I should be paying out a couple arms to hold onto a guy who may have arm problems in a couple years . . . when we actually need him as the rest of the team matures.