Roch: Would you?

[crawdad]

What's kind of funny in that post by Roch is that someone posted the numbers, and Melvin Mora has better numbers this year than Beltre.

Yikes.

Though not when you include defense and normalize for park factors. Beltre power has evaporated this year though.

[Hank Scorpio]

Though not when you include defense and normalize for park factors. Beltre power has evaporated this year though.

Oh, still yikes for me.

Yikes, yikes, yikes. Especially because of the $.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Did you read the article? Someone proposed the question to him. Not someone from the organization, so its obviously not a real rumor or anything, just an interesting question.

Actually I didn't read the article, just the segment quoted in the OP.

Now I get it.

[ejf1025]

So what do people think Johnson would cost?

One of Matusz/Tillman? Jones?

[RandyM]

So what do people think Johnson would cost?

One of Matusz/Tillman? Jones?

History lesson:

Dan Haren traded with 3 years left at a very reasonable price:

Carlos Gonzo, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham

Eric Bedard traded with 2 years left on the cheap. We all know what we got.

Cliff Lee with 1.5 years left making $9 mill for the last year with Ben Fransico

Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, and Lou Marson

King Felix for 2.5 years

Rumored Deal

Pick 5 out of these 7: Clay Bucholtz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Felix Doubont, Josh Reddick, or Yamico Navarro

Roy Halladay for 1.5 years, the last year he is paid like $15

Rumored Deal

Bucholtz, Masterson, Hagadone, Bowden, and a positional prospect.

Javier Vasquez for 2 years and Boone Logan

Tyler Flower, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriquez

Jake Peavy and his 3/52 mill guaranteed with a option for 18 mill with a 4 mill buy out with a Full NTC

Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Adam Russell.

This should give you a good feel of what the Marlins should be looking for. Johnson isn't a complete salary dump like Peavy. Javier was coming off a down year. I say the package you should be looking at as comp are something between the Halladay, Haren, Bedard, and Lee trades.

This is not a trade I would do, but this is me taking off my O's hat, shades, and stop drinking the kool aid:

Tillman, Reimold, Erbe, and Drake.

Again, not saying I would do that deal. But that is what it would take to get things moving. Maybe it takes Matusz over Tillman or something else. If you disagree, please tell me why Arrieta, Britton, and Waring compete against the deals above.

If it starts to hurt. That means you are getting closer to a deal that the other side would consider.

[RandyM]

History lesson:

Dan Haren traded with 3 years left at a very reasonable price:

Carlos Gonzo, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham

Eric Bedard traded with 2 years left on the cheap. We all know what we got.

Cliff Lee with 1.5 years left making $9 mill for the last year with Ben Fransico

Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, and Lou Marson

King Felix for 2.5 years

Rumored Deal

Pick 5 out of these 7: Clay Bucholtz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Felix Doubont, Josh Reddick, or Yamico Navarro

Roy Halladay for 1.5 years, the last year he is paid like $15

Rumored Deal

Bucholtz, Masterson, Hagadone, Bowden, and a positional prospect.

Javier Vasquez for 2 years and Boone Logan

Tyler Flower, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriquez

Jake Peavy and his 3/52 mill guaranteed with a option for 18 mill with a 4 mill buy out with a Full NTC

Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Adam Russell.

This should give you a good feel of what the Marlins should be looking for. Johnson isn't a complete salary dump like Peavy. Javier was coming off a down year. I say the package you should be looking at as comp are something between the Halladay, Haren, Bedard, and Lee trades.

This is not a trade I would do, but this is me taking off my O's hat, shades, and stop drinking the kool aid:

Tillman, Reimold, Erbe, and Drake.

Again, not saying I would do that deal. But that is what it would take to get things moving. Maybe it takes Matusz over Tillman or something else. If you disagree, please tell me why Arrieta, Britton, and Waring compete against the deals above.

If it starts to hurt. That means you are getting closer to a deal that the other side would consider.

BTW didn't include the Johan deal since he had a NTC and he was going to use it only to go to 3 teams. I also didn't add CC, since he was a 1/2 year rental.

Guess I could have included Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (18 mill, big money for a player with a "bad" back back then. Angelos veoted a deal for Burnett because of his back)

for

Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and Jesus Delgado

Texas could have had Beckett for Blalock, Thomas Diamond/John Danks, and Joaquin Arias, but they resisted in including "hot shortstop prospect" Arias.

Wonder if they regret that?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2232211

[ejf1025]

History lesson:

Dan Haren traded with 3 years left at a very reasonable price:

Carlos Gonzo, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham

Eric Bedard traded with 2 years left on the cheap. We all know what we got.

Cliff Lee with 1.5 years left making $9 mill for the last year with Ben Fransico

Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, and Lou Marson

King Felix for 2.5 years

Rumored Deal

Pick 5 out of these 7: Clay Bucholtz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Felix Doubont, Josh Reddick, or Yamico Navarro

Roy Halladay for 1.5 years, the last year he is paid like $15

Rumored Deal

Bucholtz, Masterson, Hagadone, Bowden, and a positional prospect.

Javier Vasquez for 2 years and Boone Logan

Tyler Flower, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriquez

Jake Peavy and his 3/52 mill guaranteed with a option for 18 mill with a 4 mill buy out with a Full NTC

Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Adam Russell.

This should give you a good feel of what the Marlins should be looking for. Johnson isn't a complete salary dump like Peavy. Javier was coming off a down year. I say the package you should be looking at as comp are something between the Halladay, Haren, Bedard, and Lee trades.

This is not a trade I would do, but this is me taking off my O's hat, shades, and stop drinking the kool aid:

Tillman, Reimold, Erbe, and Drake.

Again, not saying I would do that deal. But that is what it would take to get things moving. Maybe it takes Matusz over Tillman or something else. If you disagree, please tell me why Arrieta, Britton, and Waring compete against the deals above.

If it starts to hurt. That means you are getting closer to a deal that the other side would consider.

With the caveat that Johnson is amenable to an extension. I may pull the trigger on that deal. It's close--prob leaning towards no.

[Dr. Andrews]

I would call him an ace.

The bigger question is how his stuff transfer to the AL East. but he is certainly an ace in his current team/league

We've had this discussion many-a-time on this board. I see guys like Beckett, Sabathia, Halladay, Lincecum, Carpenter...those are aces...Johnson just doesn't have that appeal in my mind. He's a great pitcher, don't get me wrong, but calling him an "ace" puts him in the upper echelon of perennial Cy-Young candidates (where I don't think he belongs yet). If the Marlins requested a Halladay-esque package for what I consider a "non-ace", there's no way I make that deal...

[GoldGlove21]

Zach Britton is untouchable IMO...pass.

I'd trade Clay Buchholz for Johnson if I were the Red Sox and Buhholz has pitched in the majors. I like prospects, but they are just prospects until they do something. I would rather give up one of Arrieta/Britton, one of Hernandez/Berken, and Waring for him though. I like all of those guys, but dealing a few solid prospects for an above average starter that can be extended for half the price of Lackey is a good deal. Why not just take Arrieta, Britton, Waring, and Snyder and make a run at Felix Hernandez? Maybe the mariners would like some of their guys back!!! :laughlol::rofl::laughlol:

[GoldGlove21]

History lesson:

Dan Haren traded with 3 years left at a very reasonable price:

Carlos Gonzo, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham

Eric Bedard traded with 2 years left on the cheap. We all know what we got.

Cliff Lee with 1.5 years left making $9 mill for the last year with Ben Fransico

Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, and Lou Marson

King Felix for 2.5 years

Rumored Deal

Pick 5 out of these 7: Clay Bucholtz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Felix Doubont, Josh Reddick, or Yamico Navarro

Roy Halladay for 1.5 years, the last year he is paid like $15

Rumored Deal

Bucholtz, Masterson, Hagadone, Bowden, and a positional prospect.

Javier Vasquez for 2 years and Boone Logan

Tyler Flower, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriquez

Jake Peavy and his 3/52 mill guaranteed with a option for 18 mill with a 4 mill buy out with a Full NTC

Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Adam Russell.

This should give you a good feel of what the Marlins should be looking for. Johnson isn't a complete salary dump like Peavy. Javier was coming off a down year. I say the package you should be looking at as comp are something between the Halladay, Haren, Bedard, and Lee trades.

This is not a trade I would do, but this is me taking off my O's hat, shades, and stop drinking the kool aid:

Tillman, Reimold, Erbe, and Drake.

Again, not saying I would do that deal. But that is what it would take to get things moving. Maybe it takes Matusz over Tillman or something else. If you disagree, please tell me why Arrieta, Britton, and Waring compete against the deals above.

If it starts to hurt. That means you are getting closer to a deal that the other side would consider.

Johnson hasn't shown himself to be in the class of Peavy or Halladay. Now Hernandez and Vasquez are another story. The Red Sox would essentially have offered Arrieta (Buchholz), Britton (Masterson), Pie (Reddick), Johnson type (Baird) and Avery. Lot of potential, but dealing a young player like Hernandez for a package of players leaves a GM vulnerable. If the deal works then great, if not then you have a lot to fix. We are not talking about dealing a veteran.

The main advantage I see with Washington is that they might be looking for a great deal. I just haven't seen enough of Johnson to offer that package for him. Part of me say sign a TOR type guy for $12-$15 Million per and keep your pitching. Once it gets sorted out deal pitching to fill any hitting voids. I am not a big fan of dealing pitching depth for an established starter with a great deal of upside.

[wildcard]

I don't think that the O's are in the position to gut their inventory for a front line pitchers when they have huge holes at 1B and 3B plus only a defensive SS. Why would Johnson sign an extension with a team that has those kind of holes?

Bell and Snyder probably spends part of 2010 in the minors and may have the same adjustment period that Wieters has had when he arrives. That probably makes it hard to sign Johnson long term while the offense is still developing.

Once the offense is in place and the pen is stable their may be a time to spend the inventory for a #1 starter but I think what happens now is that Johnson who hit the market in 2011 and be hard to keep. The O's offense will not be there to support him in 2010 and once he gets past one year until being a FA he probably tests the market.

It just does not look like the timing is right for trade for Johnson. I don't think that this move stands on its own. I think the whole team has to be looked at to see if this move can be supported by the rest of the team.

[NoVaO]

When I adjust them for park and league, I do not get a 1 pitcher. I think his performance is a bit over his head this year. He is someone who I think settles in as a 3.50 pitcher in the NL and a 3.80 in the AL. I understand what ERA=, xFIP, tRA, etc. say. I know my perspective on him is slightly lower than scouting and the metrics suggest.

I guess I should be more to the point:

1) I think this might be his best season.

2) I don't like how he is shying away from using his changeup.

3) He is not missing enough bats when he is in the zone . . . I think this will come back to hurt him. He seems to be getting too many strike outs by getting swings outside of the zone. This is likely to add innings in the AL East and he has had past arm trouble and his throwing schedule has been accelerated greatly over the past two years. Movng to the AL East will result in him increasing his usage of the slider to 30% or so. Even though I like his motion as being easy enough . . . that kind of concerns me that I should be paying out a couple arms to hold onto a guy who may have arm problems in a couple years . . . when we actually need him as the rest of the team matures.

I think he's better than you give him credit for. This is the second time he's posted an ERA under 3.10. To me, he's the 6th or 7th best pitcher in the AL and that would qualify as a true No. 1 starter for me.

I also think there's room for him to get better. He's still young and hasn't logged a lot of innings even for a guy his age because of that TJ surgery.

You mention the change-up...I'm not sure he's shying away from using his change-up. It might just be he hasn't needed it as much. Fangraphs labels it as his most effective pitch surprisingly, so if he were to move over to the AL, he won't necessarily have to increase the usage of his slider. He could just use his change-up.

Also, the reason he's not missing as many bats as some of the other elite pitchers is because he's getting ground balls instead.

I hear you on the innings and I understand he's a risk, but so are most pitchers and I don't consider Johnson to be much more of a risk than Lackey, who is older, has a lot more mileage on his arm, and has spent time on the DL in each of the last two years with various arm injuries.

Johnson may get injured. But so may Arrieta and Britton. We already saw Britton shut down with a tired shoulder at the end of this year, so you just never know.

But it really is a moot point because to get Johnson, we'd have to give up more than Britton, Arrieta, and Waring.

[crawdad]

I think he's better than you give him credit for. This is the second time he's posted an ERA under 3.10. To me, he's the 6th or 7th best pitcher in the AL and that would qualify as a true No. 1 starter for me.

I also think there's room for him to get better. He's still young and hasn't logged a lot of innings even for a guy his age because of that TJ surgery.

You mention the change-up...I'm not sure he's shying away from using his change-up. It might just be he hasn't needed it as much. Fangraphs labels it as his most effective pitch surprisingly, so if he were to move over to the AL, he won't necessarily have to increase the usage of his slider. He could just use his change-up.

Also, the reason he's not missing as many bats as some of the other elite pitchers is because he's getting ground balls instead.

I hear you on the innings and I understand he's a risk, but so are most pitchers and I don't consider Johnson to be much more of a risk than Lackey, who is older, has a lot more mileage on his arm, and has spent time on the DL in each of the last two years with various arm injuries.

Johnson may get injured. But so may Arrieta and Britton. We already saw Britton shut down with a tired shoulder at the end of this year, so you just never know.

But it really is a moot point because to get Johnson, we'd have to give up more than Britton, Arrieta, and Waring.

Oh, I think this is just an exercise. And, in truth, I would not do either as I wrote before. I do not think we are at a place where we really have a good indication of how far we are from somewhere. So . . . yeah, I think do either is somewhat misguided.

Maybe I am selling Johnson short, but I'm not as impressed as you are. I do not think his changeup is very effective against righties. It is not bad, but it is not a good swing and miss type of pitch. That is why he will have to increase his slider usage. I'm sure you are not meaning to do this, but one year variations in pitch run value is incredibly fraught with error . . . especially with a pitch that is so rarely thrown. I would not get caught up in those lines. For any sort of reliability . . . you probably need about 1000 pitches to say much of anything interesting with that metric.

I recognize that he gets more grounders than most pitchers. I also recognize that outside of the NL East . . . his HR/Fly rate is going to inch up. His slider use is going to inch up. His pitches per inning is going to inch up.

A year or two years from now . . . present with the same situation where we have three prospects of equal value for a young pitcher of equal value . . . I would make the deal very quickly. I would make that deal instead of signing a talent comparable to Lackey.

Right now . . . force me in a corner . . . I'd lean Lackey because of how our payroll is set up currently to absorb some of his salary for a short while.

[birdman57]

http://masnsports.com/2009/09/would-you.html

This is an interesting idea, but I don't think it's enough on the O's side.

Now imagine if we could put together a package for Johnson and Hanley Ramirez...

Now that would be a gamble.

Kuddos to the moderator. This is one of the more interesting posts I've seen in awhile. My thoughts: Johnson would be a great fit but why not expand the package to include Ramierez?? I understand this would be a huge, huge deal involving a ton of our top talent but to my thinking this is the kind of statement deal that would be need to compete in the AL East and bring the dormant fan base back to life. Outside of Matusz and Wieters, I would put all other names on the table and that includes Markakis who seems to me he could use a change of scenary. Just my two cents:)

[birdman57]

I'd trade Clay Buchholz for Johnson if I were the Red Sox and Buhholz has pitched in the majors. I like prospects, but they are just prospects until they do something. I would rather give up one of Arrieta/Britton, one of Hernandez/Berken, and Waring for him though. I like all of those guys, but dealing a few solid prospects for an above average starter that can be extended for half the price of Lackey is a good deal. Why not just take Arrieta, Britton, Waring, and Snyder and make a run at Felix Hernandez? Maybe the mariners would like some of their guys back!!! :laughlol::rofl::laughlol:

All joking aside, I thought the same thing recently that why couldn't we be in on Hernandez??? I'm sure Seattle would take a tougher stance with us now but that is okay. The Red Sox threw a ton of talent (my sources tell me they offered their top 5 minor league prospects for Felix) at Seattle. For Hernandez I would offer up Tillman, Markakis and Britton and see if they bite. Getting Felix here with a generous extension in my mind would certainly elevate this ballclub:)