Worse case scenario for a failed "blow up"?

[Fan4Life]

I think the worst case is that they trade some, all, or most of the guys you want to trade, but instead of truly getting young, cheap guys with huge upsides they try to plug holes with mediocre, arbitration-eligible Adam LaRoche types. Of course that would be a horribly stupid thing to do, but the guys who tried to do that last winter still haven't been officially fired, so I still have some fear of it happening.

I'm not sure LaRoche is a good example, but I get your point.

[geschinger]

OK....so we blow it up. We trade our $94 million team....Bedard, Tejada, Roberts, et al....for $24 million worth of young, promising, ML and almost ML ready kids. Then, let's say after 2-3 years, it becomes obvious that most of these guys aren't making anyone believe they are ML players. The only person who wins in this scenerio is Peter Angelos. He keeps $70 million in his pocket, and still makes out like a bandit collecting TV revenues, and the money wasted by O's fans who continue to support his team.

So, what happens when blowing it up fails?

(1) Do we blow it up again and start over?

(2) Or do we select that small core of guys who are solid players, and start building a team around them. But wait!.....We can do this now, and definitely have a better chance of fielding a winning team in 2008, and beyond.

What is your goal - a winning team or contention?

If a finishing w/more wins than losses is the goal, then keep the core we have and make some changes to try to get them over the 81 win hump.

If contention is the goal and if you honestly believe that we can build around the current core and legitimately contend then it doesn't make sense to make trades to get younger.

For me contention is the only goal that matters and I just don't see how we get there w/the current core players before they start their decline. And trying to contend w/a core of declining players is difficult at best. Therefore I believe we should try to trade from the core to get some youth in here that can hopefully develop together and be peaking when a second wave of talented young players is ready to contribute (hopefully w/guys like Rowell, Wieters, etc..). That is a better solution than having that wave of young talent trying to prop of declining veteran core.

[Sports Guy]

Be sure we are debating the correct strategy,

Blow it Up - Everyone under 26 years of age goes...

Targeted trades - Keep some guys, IE: Roberts, while trading others: Tejada.

First of all, half of this roster could easily be replaced. I am talking about guys like Bell and Bako as well.

I am not sure many would debate this.

Then you have the main guys left.

I gotta think most here would love to trade Mora just to get rid of the contract.

I believe most people would want to trade Tejada.

I also think a majority are open to trading DCab in the right deal.

Really, to me it boils down to 2 players where the difference really lies..BRob and Bedard.

To me, BRob has to be traded....I go back and forth on Bedard.

[Fan4Life]

First of all, half of this roster could easily be replaced. I am talking about guys like Bell and Bako as well.

I am not sure many would debate this.

Then you have the main guys left.

I gotta think most here would love to trade Mora just to get rid of the contract.

I believe most people would want to trade Tejada.

I also think a majority are open to trading DCab in the right deal.

Really, to me it boils down to 2 players where the difference really lies..BRob and Bedard.

To me, BRob has to be traded....I go back and forth on Bedard.

I agree with all of this and as you pointed out, only the last part is where many are splitting hairs... and I am one of them. If Bedard signs, BRob can go. If Bedard won't sign, BRob stays, Bedard goes.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with all of this and as you pointed out, only the last part is where many are splitting hairs... and I am one of them. If Bedard signs, BRob can go. If Bedard won't sign, BRob stays, Bedard goes.

Why would you keep BRob in that scenario?

[Fan4Life]

Why would you keep BRob in that scenario?

Obviously he is an asset to this team, and in that regard I believe we can fill our holes with a trade of Tejada, Bedard and perhaps DCab. How man holes are we looking to fill? DH, LF, backup C, CF? and the bullpen?

Well we have Hoey Liz, Cherry, Cabrera, Penn/Olson as possible bullpen options to go with Bradford and Walker

Reimold as a possble LF

Moving Mora to LF and playing Moore at 3B and occassionally Huff

House at backup C option

Knott as possible DH/OF option

So with all of these options, unless they all fail, I think Tejada and either Bedard or Roberts can fill most of, if not all of, the holes in trades.

[Sports Guy]

Obviously he is an asset to this team, and in that regard I believe we can fill our holes with a trade of Tejada, Bedard and perhaps DCab. How man holes are we looking to fill? DH, LF, backup C, CF? and the bullpen?

Well we have Hoey Liz, Cherry, Cabrera, Penn/Olson as possible bullpen options

Reimold as a possble LF

Moving Mora to LF and playing Moore at 3B and occassionally Huff

House at backup C option

Knott as possible DH/OF option

So with all of these options, unless they are fail, I think Tejada and either Bedard or Roberts can fill most of, if not all of, the holes in trades.

Are you prepared to give BRob a 4-5 year extension after 2009 if he evens wants to stay?

[Fan4Life]

Are you prepared to give BRob a 4-5 year extension after 2009 if he evens wants to stay?

Not likley, I think I would go along with the poster who proposed trading him at the deadline in 2009.

[Sports Guy]

Not likley, I think I would go along with the poster who proposed trading him at the deadline in 2009.

Do you think we would contend in 2008 and 2009?

[thomden]

None of this has anything to do with what we are talking about.

Of course you need smart people making decisions. Thank you Capt Obvious.

We haven't had smart baseball people making decisions. The collective of PA ,Sid Thrift, Fanagan, Duquette et al are organizational morons. Now that Andy MacPhail has taken the helm I believe we are on the right course i.e. "Smart Management".

The firing of Doc Watson and Larry Lawless is demonstrating heads will role as MacPhail lays the foundation for bonafide, all inclusive baseball operation. Most likely (hope) after the Minnesota model. It's obvious their is a clear lack of coordination between our various minor league team philosophies which has led to chaos. Each team being an entity in itself.

What I believe some are exposing that a "blowup" in itself would accomplish nothing unless there is a total overhaul of the Oriole Baseball operations. That to me is a blowup which makes sense. The blowup you and others desire makes no sense unless their is a functional minor league organization to handle the influx of prospects, and draft picks. Unfortunately by the time the Orioles are ready for the "blowup" 2008 will be upon us.

Where does that leave us? Certainly our goals for the upcoming season should be to actually fix the BP, and try our best to obtain a true #4 hitter. Will that get us into post season probably not, but it should get us in 3rd place if our SP's stay healthy.

We also should be able to extend Bedard and Roberts if we can show on paper a plan for winning. If not we trade them.

Miggy most likely should go if we can get a few good ML ready players. He seems to create problems in the clubhouse(my conclusion based upon the many posts here). The same for Payton.

Thus the Orioles create a new organizational plan for wining for the next decade, and beyond, and at the same time make some key decisions on the above mentioned players. A player blowup I don't think so, but it does make sense to me.

[Fan4Life]

Do you think we would contend in 2008 and 2009?

Not if we Blow it up. We need a bullpen, a LF, a DH, a backup C, and perhaps a CF.

If we fill those holes trading Bedard, Tejada and perhaps DCab, then I think we have a shot at competing for a playoff spot...

[Sports Guy]

Not if we Blow it up. We need a bullpen, a LF, a DH, a backup C, and perhaps a CF.

If we fill those holes trading Bedard, Tejada and perhaps DCab, then I think we have a shot at competing for a playoff spot...

I am confused now.,..What are you looking to get in trades for those guys? Young players or established players who can fill those holeS?

[wildcard]

SG, just to answer your question.

If you trade all the high value players on the team like Bedard, Roberts Miggy, etc for youngster and it does not work (your words) then you are left with nothing to trade and nowhere to go to improve. Everything of value is gone.

That is if it doesn't work.

[Sports Guy]

SG, just to answer your question.

If you trade all the high value players on the team like Bedard, Roberts Miggy, etc for youngster and it does not work (your words) then you are left with nothing to trade and nowhere to go to improve. Everything of value is gone.

That is if it doesn't work.

If you keep them, don't contend and then they leave via FA, what do you have?

[Three Run Homer]

Given how bad the current team is, it seems to me that the burden of proof is on the wildcards and rshacklefords to tell us a plausible strategy by which this team can build around its current core, a strategy that takes into account two realities:

(1) We don't have much major league ready talent on the farm

(2) There aren't many good free agents on the market in most off-seasons, and the best ones want to play for a winner.