John Lackey and Kevin Millwood

[Sports Guy]

Career numbers would be misleading... what does the last 3 years look like?

Remember, look at Millwood prior to go to Texas and Lackey now...That way it is apples to apples...And let's also not forget that Millwood may have faced Boston and NY several times in the NL, where obviously no DH is used.

That has to be a factor there.

[byrdz]

League average (2009): 5.37 ERA vs. NYY, 4.92 ERA vs. Boston. So, on balance, Lackey is about league average against them. As to the O's staff? 6.87 ERA vs. Boston, 6.72 vs. NYY this year. I'd take Lackey's numbers against them.

Ok, that works then, Lackey it is!

[VTmook213]

It's a shame they couldn't front load his contract so he receives the bulk of his contract over the next 2-3 years before the Orioles have to start worry about extending/resigning a lot of our youngsters.

[byrdz]

What's a better indication of his talent, 12.5% of his career or 100% of his career?

What are his numbers on Tuesdays? That's about 1/8th of his career starts.

Odds are they'll pitch the same amount of Tuesdays they always have. Against the Yanks/Red Sox that 12.5% goes up to something like 30%. So it's not exactly the same thing. But seeing the league averages compared to Lackey's umbers makes me feel better. It's just that I see those teams picking a part most pitchers they see for an extended period of time and these guys are on the wrong side of 30. I just don't see them performing the same once in the AL East but "that's just like my opinion man".

[Sports Guy]

It's a shame they couldn't front load his contract so he receives the bulk of his contract over the next 2-3 years before the Orioles have to start worry about extending/resigning a lot of our youngsters.

Well you can but they won't.

They could just structure where he makes the same amount every year.

[VTmook213]

Well you can but they won't.

They could just structure where he makes the same amount every year.

Well, right, but the whole argument that people are making as to why signing Lackey could ever be a bad thing is because it would tie up too much revenue when the Orioles need it the most. Whereas next year, they have a pretty small payroll and could easily afford it.

I dunno. I guess I just don't understand why players/organizations never get more creative with the way they structure contracts.

[Sports Guy]

Well, right, but the whole argument that people are making as to why signing Lackey could ever be a bad thing is because it would tie up too much revenue when the Orioles need it the most. Whereas next year, they have a pretty small payroll and could easily afford it.

I dunno. I guess I just don't understand why players/organizations never get more creative with the way they structure contracts.

Its the idea of the value of money.

To me, it makes sense to pay more for when the player is giving you the best production...But I know why they don't do that.

AROD's contract is front loaded.

[olehippi]

The consensus seems to be that Lackey will likely be most effective from 2010 - 2012, which generally coincides with the timeframe many believe that the Orioles could/should be in contention. So, instead of offering Lackey 5/75, as has been suggested, offer him 3/63 with a $12M mutual or team option for 2013, just in case. This will also fit with the time frame that the Orioles won’t be spending a lot of money to extend any of the young guys, except maybe Jones, and it should allow a sizeable chunk of change to be available for a adding a big bopper.

This fills the Orioles need for a veteran front line pitcher during what should be their most productive seasons, and Lackey might bite because it gives him the option to become an FA again at age 34, and perhaps the opportunity for another big payday. Both the Orioles and Lackey would hope that he remains effective and healthy.

[mweb]

The consensus seems to be that Lackey will likely be most effective from 2010 - 2012, which generally coincides with the timeframe many believe that the Orioles could/should be in contention. So, instead of offering Lackey 5/75, as has been suggested, offer him 3/63 with a $12M mutual or team option for 2013, just in case. This will also fit with the time frame that the Orioles won’t be spending a lot of money to extend any of the young guys, except maybe Jones, and it should allow a sizeable chunk of change to be available for a adding a big bopper.

This fills the Orioles need for a veteran front line pitcher during what should be their most productive seasons, and Lackey might bite because it gives him the option to become an FA again at age 34, and perhaps the opportunity for another big payday. Both the Orioles and Lackey would hope that he remains effective and healthy.

I don't think that the consensus, at least it shouldn't be. 2010 is a non-contending year, 2011 will hopefully be the first year of contention, but 2012 and the following few years is more realistic as far as actually making the playoffs imo.

[Dr. Andrews]

Great insight and comparison, Sports Guy. It came as somewhat as a shock to me because when you just hear those two names, Millwood and Lackey, I just think so much more highly of Lackey. Maybe because he's been on a winning team for a while, but still, I wouldn't expect their numbers to be so close. IMO, the O's desperately need a top of the rotation guy like Lackey that can match up with a Sabathia, Shields, Halladay, or Beckett when we face off against our division foes...he's a guy I'd slightly overpay for.

[Sports Guy]

Since his future is the question, this is how I feel he will do for us:

2010: 3.60

2011: 3.90

2012: 4.1

2013: 4.35

2014: 4.65

I would expect something along those lines...I see no reason why Guthrie can have a few sub 4 ERA years in the AL East and lackey can't.

[Mackus]

.Chan Ho doesn't have lackey's pedigree...

Lackey entering age 31 season:

232 GS, 1499 IP, 3.81 ERA, 9.10 H/9, 2.65 BB/9, 7.65 K/9, 0.90 HR/9

Park entering age 29 season:

176 GS, 1183.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 7.62 H/9, 4.26 BB/9, 8.36 K/9, 0.94 HR/9

[Sports Guy]

Lackey entering age 31 season:

232 GS, 1499 IP, 3.81 ERA, 9.10 H/9, 2.65 BB/9, 7.65 K/9, 0.90 HR/9

Park entering age 29 season:

176 GS, 1183.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 7.62 H/9, 4.26 BB/9, 8.36 K/9, 0.94 HR/9

In the NL...in the best pitchers park in baseball(or one of the best).

[Mackus]

In the NL...in the best pitchers park in baseball(or one of the best).

True, but he was 3 years younger.

Not saying they are equals, but both had really good pedigrees, you can't write off Cahn Ho Park as a decent comp. There is certainly risk that Lackey just completely loses it as there is with any pitcher.

Personally, I think Lackey is about as safe of a bet health-wise as pitchers get. However, don't construe that to mean he is a safe bet. No 31 year old pitcher is a safe bet health wise on a 5-year deal. That player simply does not exist.

If we were one year further into our rebuild, or if Lackey was a FA at the same age but after 2010, I'd probably think he was an amazing target. He's still a guy I'd like to have, but he's not such an obvious move that you can claim not going after him is undeniably a mistake or that it isn't a big risk to sign him.

[Sports Guy]

True, but he was 3 years younger.

Not saying they are equals, but both had really good pedigrees, you can't write off Cahn Ho Park as a decent comp. There is certainly risk that Lackey just completely loses it as there is with any pitcher.

Personally, I think Lackey is about as safe of a bet health-wise as pitchers get. However, don't construe that to mean he is a safe bet. No 31 year old pitcher is a safe bet health wise on a 5-year deal. That player simply does not exist.

If we were one year further into our rebuild, or if Lackey was a FA at the same age but after 2010, I'd probably think he was an amazing target. He's still a guy I'd like to have, but he's not such an obvious move that you can claim not going after him is undeniably a mistake or that it isn't a big risk to sign him.

Every 4 or 5 year contract is a risk.

I hate 5 year contracts for pitchers but some are better risks than others and lackey is a better risk.

He is important to us on many different levels.