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I hadn't realized we allowed more runs than last year


Frobby

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2008: 869 runs allowed (810 earned) in 161 games

2009: 876 runs allowed (817 earned) in 162 games

So, overall, the pitching showed no improvement at all. We can talk about "losing culture," and we can talk about going out and getting some bats, but this won't be a winning team until the pitching is way, way better than it has been the last 2 years (or 3 years, or 4 years, or 5 years). We allowed 106 runs more than the AL mean, and 120 more than the AL median. That is the single biggest thing about our team that needs to change.

I'm optimistic that our starting staff will improve very significantly next year, even if nobody is acquired (though I favor acquiring a good starter). I'm not so sure about the bullpen, which was awful once Sherrill got traded. But this has to be fixed.

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2008: 869 runs allowed (810 earned) in 161 games

2009: 876 runs allowed (817 earned) in 162 games

So, overall, the pitching showed no improvement at all. We can talk about "losing culture," and we can talk about going out and getting some bats, but this won't be a winning team until the pitching is way, way better than it has been the last 2 years (or 3 years, or 4 years, or 5 years). We allowed 106 runs more than the AL mean, and 120 more than the AL median. That is the single biggest thing about our team that needs to change.

I'm optimistic that our starting staff will improve very significantly next year, even if nobody is acquired (though I favor acquiring a good starter). I'm not so sure about the bullpen, which was awful once Sherrill got traded. But this has to be fixed.

Adam Eaton and Rich Hill gave up a few of those at the beginning of the year. After they left we had a rotation of 4 rookies do you really expect them to be dominant?

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Adam Eaton and Rich Hill gave up a few of those at the beginning of the year. After they left we had a rotation of 4 rookies do you really expect them to be dominant?

Not at all, I am just stating a fact. Frankly, our hope for improvement next year lies mainly with three pitchers who have started a total of 39 games in their combined careers (Bergesen, Tillman and Matusz).

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Adam Eaton and Rich Hill gave up a few of those at the beginning of the year. After they left we had a rotation of 4 rookies do you really expect them to be dominant?

It goes beyond that and underscores my comments previously that we need to add some reliable pitching to this team or next season will be setup for a repeat of this season.

I prefer

??

??

BB

Matusz

Tillman

But if DT remarks recently about Guts mean anything, didn't sound like he's going anywhere.

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Adam Eaton and Rich Hill gave up a few of those at the beginning of the year. After they left we had a rotation of 4 rookies do you really expect them to be dominant?

Yeah, Eaton, Hill, Berken was pretty bad for us for most of the year. These guys really hurt us. Then the bullpen, which last year atleast had 2 full time regulars who had good seasons for us in Johnson and Sherrill. This year, none of the regulars had a good season. Really to me the only bright spots were Mickolio and knowing that Koji is gonna be in the pen next season....

Oh, and Im forgetting how bad Guthrie was this year.

Im confident that even with the Big 3 and Bergy and whatever other SP is gonna man the rotation is gonna help us out much more next year, along with an improved bullpen....

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It goes beyond that and underscores my comments previously that we need to add some reliable pitching to this team or next season will be setup for a repeat of this season.

I prefer

??

??

BB

Matusz

Tillman

But if DT remarks recently about Guts mean anything, didn't sound like he's going anywhere.

So whats your stance on Arrieta? Youd rather block him with Guts and another vet SP?

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The 2005 Tigers allowed 787 runs. The 2006 Tigers allowed 675. They improved by 24 games.

The 2007 Rays allowed 944 runs, in 2008 they allowed 671. They improved by 31 games.

The 1988 Orioles allowed 789 runs, in 1989 they allowed 686. They improved by 33 games.

The 1913 Braves allowed 690 runs, and in 1913 they allowed 548. They improved by 25 games.

The 1990 Braves allowed 821 runs, and in 1991 they allowed 644. They improved by 25 games.

Three times in the last 25 years the Twins have improved their runs allowed by 100+ in one season.

No reason the 2010 Orioles can't be in the neighborhood of 750 runs allowed.

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So whats your stance on Arrieta? Youd rather block him with Guts and another vet SP?

I'd rather have a surplus of very good pitchers and work from there. I have no problem moving Guts, I was referring to DT's comments on him last week. Didn't sound like there was any doubt he'd be back. Other posters have pointed out Guthrie wouldn't be moved this offseason as his value is low and that isn't AM's MO.

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No reason the 2010 Orioles can't be in the neighborhood of 750 runs allowed.

If they go into 2010 with just the starting pitchers they have... the deck won't be stacked in their favor. An injury here or there, a Tillman or Matusz not improving as much as expected, etc etc... it could unravel fast from there.

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If they go into 2010 with just the starting pitchers they have... the deck won't be stacked in their favor. An injury here or there, a Tillman or Matusz not improving as much as expected, etc etc... it could unravel fast from there.

You think a 4.40 ERA is quite unlikely with the pitchers on hand? That's about what it would be with 750 total runs allowed. And that's just about the American League average.

Bergesen, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, Hernandez, and Uehara combined for a 4.96 this year. I could see a half-run improvement over that. Especially if the third/first basemen can field and Pie plays left often.

Sure, no guarantees. But I don't think the whole offseason goes without acquiring some pitchers, either.

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How many years in a row have we talked about how if we just get league average production out of these spots, we will be in good shape?

This team has to upgrade the talent level.

Agreed. But...

Bergesen, Tillman and Matusz would appear to be definite upgrades in talent level. Not only over Eaton, Simon and Hill, but also over anyone else that we've had in the rotation for some time (ie. Ponson, Cabrera, etal.).

Hernandez and Berken have not, but hitting on 3 out of 5 of the organization's most "major-league ready" pitching prospects (allowing that none have pitched a full season, yet) seem pretty promising. We've also yet to see Arrieta, Erbe, Britton, or Johnson reach the majors, and all seem to have ceilings from very high to major league average.

If we sign one high end free agent pitcher, and based on both MacPhail's and Trembley's end-of-season statements, I would not be at all surprised to see us make a strong play for Lackey, to go with the Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman, I can see a strong case for an improved rotation even if Guthrie does stick around for awhile (at least until Arrieta is ready).

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The 2005 Tigers allowed 787 runs. The 2006 Tigers allowed 675. They improved by 24 games.

The 2007 Rays allowed 944 runs, in 2008 they allowed 671. They improved by 31 games.

The 1988 Orioles allowed 789 runs, in 1989 they allowed 686. They improved by 33 games.

The 1913 Braves allowed 690 runs, and in 1913 they allowed 548. They improved by 25 games.

The 1990 Braves allowed 821 runs, and in 1991 they allowed 644. They improved by 25 games.

Three times in the last 25 years the Twins have improved their runs allowed by 100+ in one season.

No reason the 2010 Orioles can't be in the neighborhood of 750 runs allowed.

My point is, this is what needs to happen if we want to see dramatic improvement of the team's record. If what we see is incremental improvement (say, reduction from 876 runs allowed to 826 runs allowed) we aren't going to see much of a bump in our record, even if we go get a couple of bats. Maybe we'd be a 75-win team if we were lucky.

Our offense struggled this year, but they were only about 40 runs below average. The pitching was 106 runs below average. We know the offense can improve, but the pitching is going to need to improve more.

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My point is, this is what needs to happen if we want to see dramatic improvement of the team's record. If what we see is incremental improvement (say, reduction from 876 runs allowed to 826 runs allowed) we aren't going to see much of a bump in our record, even if we go get a couple of bats. Maybe we'd be a 75-win team if we were lucky.

Our offense struggled this year, but they were only about 40 runs below average. The pitching was 106 runs below average. We know the offense can improve, but the pitching is going to need to improve more.

It all hinges on the ability for Matusz. Tillman, Arrieta and Bergy to develop as well and quickyl as possible. When they are where they need to be, us as a team will be where we need to be. Based strictly off of progression our allowed runs will go down and runs scored will go up. Now, if we just add a few key piecesd we will be good to go.......

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2008: 869 runs allowed (810 earned) in 161 games

2009: 876 runs allowed (817 earned) in 162 games

So, overall, the pitching showed no improvement at all. We can talk about "losing culture," and we can talk about going out and getting some bats, but this won't be a winning team until the pitching is way, way better than it has been the last 2 years (or 3 years, or 4 years, or 5 years). We allowed 106 runs more than the AL mean, and 120 more than the AL median. That is the single biggest thing about our team that needs to change.

I'm optimistic that our starting staff will improve very significantly next year, even if nobody is acquired (though I favor acquiring a good starter). I'm not so sure about the bullpen, which was awful once Sherrill got traded. But this has to be fixed.

The bullpen after Sherrill was gone quite honestly was the worst I believe I have ever seen in my 46 years of religiously following this team. They could have Nolan Ryan, Jim Palmer, and Sandy Koufax in their prime as starters and the bullpen would have lost half of their games for them I believe. I mean you know your bullpen is turdish when fans are actually debating whether Baez should be signed again!!:eek:

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