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#7 prospect : RHP - Brandon Erbe


Tony-OH

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http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2323

Brandon Erbe put together a solid 2009 season and comes in as the number seven prospect. Contrary to popular belief, we do like the big right-hander but we feel his best role will be as a closer in the major leagues.

Time will tell, but Erbe certainly has a major league arm and could be in the mix for a job with the Orioles sometime in 2010.

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http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2323

Brandon Erbe put together a solid 2009 season and comes in as the number seven prospect. Contrary to popular belief, we do like the big right-hander but we feel his best role will be as a closer in the major leagues.

Time will tell, but Erbe certainly has a major league arm and could be in the mix for a job with the Orioles sometime in 2010.

I would be very happy if Erbe could lock down the closers role. I know everyone wants every one of our young starters to be viable starters that hold value as trade chips, but relievers are valuable too. If Erbe, Arrieta, and David Hernandez performed well out of the bullpen and Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Britton performed well as starters, there could of been a much harsher reality. Keep developing the pitching and strike on young infield talent when the opportunity presents itself. As far as the offense goes this team is 2 bats and a little player development away from throwing together a young and relatively inexpensive squad. I think it is time to let the young guys fight it out to see who sticks where. Arrieta, Britton, and Erbe can start 2010 in the minors if need be, but does those guy's need to finish the season there?

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Closer??? I can't rule it out, but isn't a closer a high velocity pitcher? If that is his future role why so much focus on all the innings he was gotten in 2009?

Erbe was up to 96 MPH before the shoulder weakness and most believe he could sit 95-97 out of the bullpen. The orioles like a lot of organizations want to see what they have in a pitcher before they convert them to the pen. Not all believe he will end up a closer, but it's where a few scouts and myself believe he'll best fit.

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Is he most likely to start 2010 at Norfolk? As a starter I presume.

In order to close doesn't he need to develop an out pitch like a hard slider? If his off speed stuff is just average, maybe he needs to concentrate on developing just one other pitch instead of several. Obviously, they have to make him a reliever first.

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Is he most likely to start 2010 at Norfolk? As a starter I presume.

In order to close doesn't he need to develop an out pitch like a hard slider? If his off speed stuff is just average, maybe he needs to concentrate on developing just one other pitch instead of several. Obviously, they have to make him a reliever first.

If shorter stints allow him to amp-up to a consistent 94-96 range, a solid average breaking ball would be enough of a compliment to get out ML hitters. Adding an average change-up would make him, potentially, a very good late-inning arm.

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Pitcher #1 (Aberdeen, age 17): 23.1 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 10 BB, 48 K's, 3.09 ERA

Pitcher #2 (Aberdeen, age 18): 26.2 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 16 K's, 4.72 ERA

Pitcher #1 is Brandon Erbe, Pitcher # 2 is Matt Hobgood.

I'm not saying that 2009 Erbe should be ranked based on what he did in Aberdeen in 2005. Nor am I saying that 23.1 or 26.2 IP is a solid basis to judge players' talents. I'm just saying Erbe outperformed Hobgood at Aberdeen by a HUGE margin -- and he was a year younger at the time!

I hope Hobgood shows in 2010 that he deserved to be ranked above Erbe. To me, he's a top draft choice who has a lot to prove. Meanwhile, Erbe has proved he can dominate AA hitters at age 21.

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Pitcher #1 (Aberdeen, age 17): 23.1 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 10 BB, 48 K's, 3.09 ERA

Pitcher #2 (Aberdeen, age 18): 26.2 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 16 K's, 4.72 ERA

Pitcher #1 is Brandon Erbe, Pitcher # 2 is Matt Hobgood.

I'm not saying that 2009 Erbe should be ranked based on what he did in Aberdeen in 2005. Nor am I saying that 23.1 or 26.2 IP is a solid basis to judge players' talents. I'm just saying Erbe outperformed Hobgood at Aberdeen by a HUGE margin -- and he was a year younger at the time!

I hope Hobgood shows in 2010 that he deserved to be ranked above Erbe. To me, he's a top draft choice who has a lot to prove. Meanwhile, Erbe has proved he can dominate AA hitters at age 21.

I think the bolded is the meat of your argument -- the rest, as you point out, doesn't really show anything. I mean, you're judging Hobgood based upon what he did during a summer in which the organization itself admitted was solely to see him throw to some pro hitters (and after close to a two month lay-off frm baseball activities).

That said, I agree with you regarding Erbe/Hobgood, and think Erbe is a better prospect right now (though I'm admittedly not as high on Hobgood as the Orioles are).

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I think the bolded is the meat of your argument -- the rest, as you point out, doesn't really show anything. I mean, you're judging Hobgood based upon what he did during a summer in which the organization itself admitted was solely to see him throw to some pro hitters (and after close to a two month lay-off frm baseball activities).

That said, I agree with you regarding Erbe/Hobgood, and think Erbe is a better prospect right now (though I'm admittedly not as high on Hobgood as the Orioles are).

I'm actually beyond second-guessing Tony's picks, because his criteria are legitimate and frankly I'm in no position to judge who has better stuff now, or who has the potential to have better stuff in the future. I just like to see some results before I put a guy way up on the prospects list, no matter how high a guy was drafted or what kind of stuff he throws.

That said, Tony'w write up on Erbe is pretty encouraging, and if what he turned into was a "plus" closer, I'd be pretty happy with that.

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Pitcher #1 (Aberdeen, age 17): 23.1 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 10 BB, 48 K's, 3.09 ERA

Pitcher #2 (Aberdeen, age 18): 26.2 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 16 K's, 4.72 ERA

Pitcher #1 is Brandon Erbe, Pitcher # 2 is Matt Hobgood.

I'm not saying that 2009 Erbe should be ranked based on what he did in Aberdeen in 2005. Nor am I saying that 23.1 or 26.2 IP is a solid basis to judge players' talents. I'm just saying Erbe outperformed Hobgood at Aberdeen by a HUGE margin -- and he was a year younger at the time!

I hope Hobgood shows in 2010 that he deserved to be ranked above Erbe. To me, he's a top draft choice who has a lot to prove. Meanwhile, Erbe has proved he can dominate AA hitters at age 21.

...Didn't Hobgood pitch at Bluefield this year? I don't recall seeing him at Aberdeen.

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Pitcher #1 (Aberdeen, age 17): 23.1 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 10 BB, 48 K's, 3.09 ERA

Pitcher #2 (Aberdeen, age 18): 26.2 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 16 K's, 4.72 ERA

Pitcher #1 is Brandon Erbe, Pitcher # 2 is Matt Hobgood.

I'm not saying that 2009 Erbe should be ranked based on what he did in Aberdeen in 2005. Nor am I saying that 23.1 or 26.2 IP is a solid basis to judge players' talents. I'm just saying Erbe outperformed Hobgood at Aberdeen by a HUGE margin -- and he was a year younger at the time!

I hope Hobgood shows in 2010 that he deserved to be ranked above Erbe. To me, he's a top draft choice who has a lot to prove. Meanwhile, Erbe has proved he can dominate AA hitters at age 21.

Unfortunately, Erbe's progress from 2005 success to 2009 success (despite injury) was not exactly linear. If Hobgood doesn't progress at or better than the rate that Erbe's progressed over 4 years, I'd expect his prospect status to take a big hit.

This is the genesis of the Cowan/Hobgood versus Erbe (or even Johnson) debate I guess.

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