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Glaring Difference In Comparing Orioles to Angels and Yankees!


Old#5fan

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Average of 6 isn't going to help you much. It allows you to have Alex Gonzalez, Hardy, Jeter, and Ryan Theroit. After that you get Drew at 3;7 or worse. Hey, Jeter's a FA after next season?:mwahaha:

Well, there is a reason why this is what I'm willing to expend our resources on. But you have to look at how I've set up the issue. It will essentially allow you to go as low as a .700 OPS if the defense is good enough. Further, the inherent volatility in UZR means that selecting single years to rebut my framework is problematic. For instance:

In 2007: Vizquel, Tony Pena Jr., Tulo, Hardy, Cabrera, Reyes and Rollins all put up a UZR over 6.

Tulo, Hardy, Reyes and Rollins all put up an OPS over .750. We'll note, too, that I'm talking about identifying prospects who can supply this, rather than current regulars. Save for Hardy, who stands out as a moderate-risk/buy-low candidate.

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Saying it should take 5 years is absurd, especially since he had some good talent when he came in.

That is just your AM hero worship clouding any common sense.

This team should be a 500 or better team next year and a contender the year after.

Barring major injuries or just poor development of the young talent we already have, there is no excuse for those things not to happen.

How is it supposedly clouding anything when we completely agree about what he might well do? I said that he can do exactly the same thing you said and, that by doing that, he would be setting a new world's record. We agree about what he might do. The only difference is that I recognize that it would be a very special accomplishment, while you deny that. The only clouding that's going on here is that you make it sound ordinary, a claim that is based on ignorance of all of modern baseball history.

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How is it supposedly clouding anything when we completely agree about what he might well do? I said that he can do exactly the same thing you said and, that by doing that, he would be setting a new world's record. We agree about what he might do. The only difference is that I recognize that it would be a very special accomplishment, while you deny that. The only clouding that's going on here is that you make it sound ordinary, a claim that is based on ignorance of all of modern baseball history.

Because its not a big deal when you have our resources and the talent that was there for him to play and trade coming into this.

All he has done is what many of us have been asking for this franchise to do for years.

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Saying it should take 5 years is absurd, especially since he had some good talent when he came in.

That is just your AM hero worship clouding any common sense.

This team should be a 500 or better team next year and a contender the year after.

Barring major injuries or just poor development of the young talent we already have, there is no excuse for those things not to happen.

There is no way in hell this team will be 500 or better unless they replace 95 % of the bullpen and you know that ain't gonna happen.:eek: There is no way a team can win with such a crappy BP. They have the worst in the division by a mile.

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Because its not a big deal when you have our resources and the talent that was there for him to play and trade coming into this.

All he has done is what many of us have been asking for this franchise to do for years.

The fact that some fantasy-GM's like what he's doing doesn't mean that you can take credit for it. He's showing good judgment, which is not the same thing as agreeing with you. To claim that rebuilding an entire lousy franchise from top to bottom in less than 5 years is no big deal is just an ignorant thing to say. In all of modern baseball, nobody has done it in less than 5 years. Nobody. If he does it, it will be the first time anybody has. It's harder than you think it is, but that's because you think being a successful GM is easy. Why you think that is beyond me, but it's what you think. My best guess is that your big error is thinking being a fantasy-GM and a real-GM are essentially the same, which is itself a delusional fantasy.

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There is no way in hell this team will be 500 or better unless they replace 95 % of the bullpen and you know that ain't gonna happen.:eek: There is no way a team can win with such a crappy BP. They have the worst in the division by a mile.

Want to pick another arbitrary number?

There are 7 members so you are pretty much looking at 14% increments.

The bullpen is going to have at least 3 new faces in 2010 (including Uehara and Berken/Hernandez). Johnson is most likely moved back to set-up and Mickolio actually starts the year in the majors. Hopefully, we resign Hendrickson.

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There are a BUNCH of folks on this board that believe we will go to the World Series next year with the staff that we have. They believe everyone will magically "get better" next year.
The only person on here who believes that is Cindy.
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Well, there is a reason why this is what I'm willing to expend our resources on. But you have to look at how I've set up the issue. It will essentially allow you to go as low as a .700 OPS if the defense is good enough. Further, the inherent volatility in UZR means that selecting single years to rebut my framework is problematic. For instance:

In 2007: Vizquel, Tony Pena Jr., Tulo, Hardy, Cabrera, Reyes and Rollins all put up a UZR over 6.

Tulo, Hardy, Reyes and Rollins all put up an OPS over .750. We'll note, too, that I'm talking about identifying prospects who can supply this, rather than current regulars. Save for Hardy, who stands out as a moderate-risk/buy-low candidate.

I think that is a good idea but I doubt they are growing on trees and if they were they wouldn't be of much help to us in the next 2-3 years. Guys like Tulo, Reyes, and Rollins will be costly, if they become available. The fact is, if you can find yourself a SS who fields as well as Izzy and can get on base enough to give you a .700 OPS you'd be lucky. That could be Hardy, (except in his case he wont be getting on base, he will be slugging) but if it were to turn out that it is, and you had traded for him, you are not likely to get more han 2 years from him. If he performs that well, he will most likely want to go FA.
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That's an entirely different point altogether. If he doesn't mean there are a bunch of people on this board that think we'll win the WS next year, let's avoid alleging that there are.

Everyone knows that more moves are needed, there's simply disagreement on just how much is required.

I think it's more of a matter of when it should be done and a matter of being for or against trading a lot of young talent to get established players.

But yes, despite what some on here would lead us to believe, at least just about everyone knows that moves are needed at some point.

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I think it's more of a matter of when it should be done and a matter of being for or against trading a lot of young talent to get established players.

But yes, despite what some on here would lead us to believe, at least just about everyone knows that moves are needed at some point.

I agree. I've been a strategic timing proponent for a long time. The more information we have when we make our moves, the less chance that we make a mistake, create a redundancy, and or buy too soon.

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I think that is a good idea but I doubt they are growing on trees and if they were they wouldn't be of much help to us in the next 2-3 years. Guys like Tulo, Reyes, and Rollins will be costly, if they become available. The fact is, if you can find yourself a SS who fields as well as Izzy and can get on base enough to give you a .700 OPS you'd be lucky. That could be Hardy, (except in his case he wont be getting on base, he will be slugging) but if it were to turn out that it is, and you had traded for him, you are not likely to get more han 2 years from him. If he performs that well, he will most likely want to go FA.

Maybe. Maybe not. Honestly, I don't know. I do know that an advanced college SS will generally progress quickly. That said, perhaps you're right, and SSs are so rare that it's just silly to go after them.

I'd certainly exhaust my options looking for a SS before I'd turn to 1B and 3B, mostly because I think there's an excellent chance that both Bell and Snyder turn out to be productive, and cheap guys at 1B and 3B.

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Maybe. Maybe not. Honestly, I don't know. I do know that an advanced college SS will generally progress quickly. That said, perhaps you're right, and SSs are so rare that it's just silly to go after them.

I'd certainly exhaust my options looking for a SS before I'd turn to 1B and 3B, mostly because I think there's an excellent chance that both Bell and Snyder turn out to be productive, and cheap guys at 1B and 3B.

The kind of SS you want, a .750 OPS 6-8 UZR are pretty rare. A .700 OPS -6-8 SS might not be. But a prospect who projects to that will take some time to develop. In the mean time, I am sayng you are better off with good field no hit guys, like Itzuris, than giving up the farm in trade for young SS like the Escobars or Andrus or spending a boatload on FA, like Reyes or Rollins.
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Forget about the offense comparison, I just cannot get over how extreme the difference is between the Angels/Yankees starting pitching and bullpen to the Orioles. A lot of discussion is floated around here on a daily basis about the Orioles becoming competitive in the AL East but if you just look at the difference that exists between true WS contenders in the Angels and Yankees and how their starting pitching and bullpen performs and you can see the Orioles are not even in the same zip code when it comes to talent and performance. I seriously doubt even one Oriole BP pitcher would even make either team's roster for example. Anyone who actually thinks the Orioles could possibly compete with either of these teams next season is living in Fantasy Land. You could combine the best position players, starters, and bullpen between the Orioles and Toronto and still not realistically compete with either team next year.

Not to be picky but JJ makes both teams. He lost confidence, wore down and maybe was miscast but he is a good pitcher. The thing is that an effective BP is reliant on a starting rotation to limit the number of innings. I cringe when I see people say six innings is a quality start. Identifying good relievers is maybe the most difficult for a scout to do. Look at Darren Oliver of the Angels. People would have screamed if AM had brought him in but he has been big for the Angels.

You are right though until we fix the pitching we will not compete, but it is conceivable that Matusz, Tillman become solid and along with a key acquisition help stabalize the staff.

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Forget about the offense comparison, I just cannot get over how extreme the difference is between the Angels/Yankees starting pitching and bullpen to the Orioles. A lot of discussion is floated around here on a daily basis about the Orioles becoming competitive in the AL East but if you just look at the difference that exists between true WS contenders in the Angels and Yankees and how their starting pitching and bullpen performs and you can see the Orioles are not even in the same zip code when it comes to talent and performance. I seriously doubt even one Oriole BP pitcher would even make either team's roster for example. Anyone who actually thinks the Orioles could possibly compete with either of these teams next season is living in Fantasy Land. You could combine the best position players, starters, and bullpen between the Orioles and Toronto and still not realistically compete with either team next year.

Hallelujah. This is why I don't understand the philosophy of "buy the bats, grow the arms." Why limit yourself this way? I admire that it's a "take" and a philosophy. But what's the rationale?

When you can completely change the balance of any 5-game series if you have three stud starters... why wouldn't you make your #1 priority every season to have the three BEST TOR starters in your division - whether you bought them, grew them or beamed them in from Planet Zebulon?

Hell. If the Orioles would have landed Sabbathia and Burnett and Pettite this year - which is what the Yankees did (Pettite was a FA, yes?) - and the Yankees would have had Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain and whoever else starting 1,2,3... you really think the Orioles would not have won the season series?

My point is... I hope Andy expands his philosophy to include top-tier FA pitchers... and that he starts this year. The other thing is, FA starters make even more sense when you realize that they don't have to have much chemistry with the rest of the team (other than the catcher). A "lone wolf" FA starter who's kind of a jerk, like Clemens, can still win you World Series rings... unlike a "lone wolf" free agent outfielder like Milton Bradley who is out there EVERY game rubbing his teammates the wrong way, etc.

That's why I think MacPhail's philosophy is backwards on this question. I would prefer we buy the starters (only elite ones) and grow the bats.

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There is no way in hell this team will be 500 or better unless they replace 95 % of the bullpen and you know that ain't gonna happen.:eek: There is no way a team can win with such a crappy BP. They have the worst in the division by a mile.

I think Uehara and Johnson are good enough to pitch in the bullpen for most teams in the game. I think Meredith and Hendrickson could pitch in the bullpen for half of the teams in the league. That just isn't good enough in the AL East. This team could use a start reliever and another one or two above average relievers. I have mentioned this on numerous occasions, but I would like to see the Orioles deal Scott to the Cubs for Marmol and Caridad (I like that kid).

On the flip side once some of our young starters find their true calling and shore up our starting rotation we should see a number of quality pitchers moved to the bullpen. The Yankees have Hughes and Chamberlin in the bullpen! I pray for a day when the Orioles can move guys like Tillman and Arrieta to the bullpen without sacrificing their starting rotation.

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