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Who is the #3 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who is the #3 prospect?  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. Who is the #3 prospect?

    • Jake Arrieta
      77
    • Zach Britton
      83


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I'm gonna go with Britton.

I personally think Arrieta is still ahead of him, so I voted that way.

Also, I think it'd be hysterical if Tony has been dropping all these hints that Britton would be ahead of him, which has lead to a ton of debate and discussion and furor over the last few days especially and then to go and give us a big "gotcha!" and put Arrieta ahead of Britton anyways.

Lastly, I don't think there is any need to have a poll for #2 and subsequently #1 after this. Outside of seeing what funny names or players Tony would come up with as the "other" options.

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Since I don't want to give it away (although I doubt few don't know by now which way I'm going to go), all I will say is that I think I have the smoking gun in the stats that separates two and it's not just GO/AO.

Well if that didn't give it away then I don't know what would.;)

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Since I don't want to give it away (although I doubt few don't know by now which way I'm going to go), all I will say is that I think I have the smoking gun in the stats that separates the two and it's not just GO/AO.

Hmmmmmmm.......Regardless of what youve hinted at, folks still are making it pretty close. Im very itnerested to hear your smoking gun stat. Pitches per at bat? LD % I doubt would be it for Jake though is his apparently was pretty bad in Norfolk this year, I doubt its that though because he was working on things and I doubt youd hold that against him in a small sample AAA stint.....

Only big thing I can find that wasnt discussed was LOB% and it favors Jake over the course of his career which I guess means he holds runners better. Or it could be because Zach gets so many GBs, a lot of the runners he will allow on base, get erased ebfore theyre considered LOB based off of double plays especially. Im sure he induces a good bit more double plays than Jake so I guess that stat is quite unhelpful...

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Since I don't want to give it away (although I doubt few don't know by now which way I'm going to go), all I will say is that I think I have the smoking gun in the stats that separates the two and it's not just GO/AO.

Alright, I was just staring at the Minor League Baseball Split site for a while....here's my guess.

Once he got to Norfolk, Arrieta seemed to be money the first 3-4 innings then seems to hit a wall(whether or not he could push through that depended on the game). The results aren't bad but there's a spike in the 5th and later innings. Britton on the other hand doesn't appear to become that much more hittable as the game wears on.

This trend also seems to carry through the season. Arrieta seems to be more hittable as his innings load accrues, Britton seems to be amazingly consistent month to month.

Now that I'm on record with a guess, I can't wait to see how far from correct I am :)

With all the heated discussion surrounding this write up, I'll certainly be on right at 11 to find out. This is better than sweeps week.

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Alright, I was just staring at the Minor League Baseball Split site for a while....here's my guess.

Once he got to Norfolk, Arrieta seemed to be money the first 3-4 innings then seems to hit a wall(whether or not he could push through that depended on the game). The results aren't bad but there's a spike in the 5th and later innings. Britton on the other hand doesn't appear to become that much more hittable as the game wears on.

This trend also seems to carry through the season. Arrieta seems to be more hittable as his innings load accrues, Britton seems to be amazingly consistent month to month.

Now that I'm on record with a guess, I can't wait to see how far from correct I am :)

With all the heated discussion surrounding this write up, I'll certainly be on right at 11 to find out. This is better than sweeps week.

Nah, not a significant number of innings. That would be a misuse of stats to lean on that. You could use scouts and managers who think that, but that data just is not large enough to merit much discussion on it. You could say it looks like this, but there could be many explanations for the way the data kind of looks.

It would be similar if I stuck my heels in the ground and said that Bergesen became a good pitcher when he occasionally broke out his curve. It kind of looks like that is the case, but in no way is that solid. Likewise, it may look like Arrieta becomes less efficient as the game wears on, but push comes to shove . . . you would never rely on those numbers. Just like you will never find me publishing an article on Bergesen's curveball.

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I do think Jake's stamina, both in games and as the season progresses, is in question. Not to say he couldn't answer those questions in 2010, but they do lurk there.

Scouting-wise I could see that as a possibility. Number-wise . . . just is not a useful set of data.

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Scouting-wise I could see that as a possibility. Number-wise . . . just is not a useful set of data.

Just to extend upon this so there is not any confusion . . . the numbers give an indication, but it is a weak one. Scouting would be the way to go to figure it out.

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Scouting-wise I could see that as a possibility. Number-wise . . . just is not a useful set of data.

I'm not looking at any numbers, just giving an impression based on having followed Arrieta's games on the internet very closely over the last two years.

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Nah, not a significant number of innings. That would be a misuse of stats to lean on that. You could use scouts and managers who think that, but that data just is not large enough to merit much discussion on it. You could say it looks like this, but there could be many explanations for the way the data kind of looks.

It would be similar if I stuck my heels in the ground and said that Bergesen became a good pitcher when he occasionally broke out his curve. It kind of looks like that is the case, but in no way is that solid. Likewise, it may look like Arrieta becomes less efficient as the game wears on, but push comes to shove . . . you would never rely on those numbers. Just like you will never find me publishing an article on Bergesen's curveball.

Yeah, not a large sample size. I thought I had had prefaced my statement but I guess I left it out. The case for Britton being consistent is certainly stronger than the case for Arrieta tiring. Like I said, I'm just curious and eager for the write-up and throwing ideas against a wall.

That said, I do believe that Britton is the better prospect than Arrieta, but I've said that before. I'm pretty high on both of them and glad that we can have the debate about who's the better prospect.

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