Who is the #3 prospect?

[crawdad]

I'm not looking at any numbers, just giving an impression based on having followed Arrieta's games on the internet very closely over the last two years.

Right, I am just trying to be explicit to prevent any confusion.

[TakebackOPACY]

My biggest question is when the national pubs come out with their rankings of each system and the league as a whole, how will Britton be viewed? We know Matusz is going to be in the top five overall and will likely be the top pitcher in all of the minors. The pubs have rated Arrieta highly before and I'd expect him to be in the Top 50 again this year. Josh Bell will likely be in the Top 100, maybe even Top 75 after his big summer this year.

Those three have all been rated highly before, but Britton burst onto the scene nationally this year for the first time. If Tony puts Britton ahead of Arrieta, he's saying that he believes Britton is among the 50 best prospects in all of baseball. Will anybody else agree with this? Will Britton be in the Top 100 when BA's rankings hit the Web and if so, where?

I think it's safe to say that Britton entered everyone's list of guys to keep an eye on, but that Tony will have him ranked significantly higher than most national publications. Here's the thing, though:

Tony does his rankings by asking himself, "Who would I rather have in my organization?" That may seem like common sense, but it is a different methodology. When you ask that question, you start to see how an unknown quantity who probably won't show up in the Top 20+ on anyone else's list (Coffey) can rightfully rank #9 on Tony's list.

On the other end of the spectrum from Coffey you could have Player X who is proven at 'AAA' and will likely get a chance in the majors, but you have a lot of information on Player X that leads you to believe he'll never be a major league stud. There is a very real possibility (if not probability) that Coffey may never accomplish what Player X has already accomplished. But that very small chance that Coffey could be a dominant major leaguer moves him WAY up when using Tony's methodology.

Tony's not wrong to rank him #9 and BA won't be wrong to leave him off their Honorable Mention list. They just came up with their lists using different methods. So the lists mean different things to the reader who tries to understand the method.

In the case of Britton and Arrieta, the typical methodology of the national publications would have Arrieta substantially higher. They're fine with ranking Britton a little low and saying 'AA' is where he has to make himself a premiere prospect. But using Tony's methodology, it's close to a pick'em.

[Tony-OH]

Are you guys ready yet? I'm done with Arrieta's wrap up after having one more conversation with a scout I know who has talked to many scouts about Arrieta.

[Tony-OH]

Just to extend upon this so there is not any confusion . . . the numbers give an indication, but it is a weak one. Scouting would be the way to go to figure it out.

That's why I always use each source to back each other up. You are absolutely correct, in a vacuum, the numbers don't mean a ton, but when you add in the scouting side, you find out that the stats back up what scouts were seeing.

[crawdad]

That's why I always use each source to back each other up. You are absolutely correct, in a vacuum, the numbers don't mean a ton, but when you add in the scouting side, you find out that the stats back up what scouts were seeing.

I would say that the scouts have the in on the analysis and that the stats seem to corroborate with what the scouts see. The stats do not exactly back them up. Kind of like if someone is 4 for 10 off fastballs and 1 for 10 off curveballs . . . it does not mean the player cannot hit a curveball. It seems to suggest that and the scouts may think he can't, but the numbers only go so far.