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Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"


SilentJames

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Well being sure makes you a better judge of talent than me I guess. I simply feel that before we trade away valuable pitching prospects (thus creating another hole) we should see what we have here. We won't know if he is overrated until he gets here. All we ask is that you give these guys the same opportunity you championed for Scott Moore before trading away half the farm system for 2 years of Fielder or AGON.

That's fine if you want to delay competing until 2012 as I think that is exactly what will happen. MacPhail is already saying there's no set timetable so we could keep "rebuilding" as long as he wants.

I don't want to see that happen. I'm sick of missing the playoffs for 12 straight years. I don't want to see us miss them for 14 straight.

The rebuilding period should be over. We've got the core in place now. It's time to augment it with premium established talent and win games.

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I have no problem with the thought that Snyder isn't likely to be our long term first baseman....I have serious doubts about that...Not so much about Bell though.

I also am fine with adding a long term solution at first...but the guy you acquire has to have 3+ years of service time.

IF you can't acquire that guy, then sign Nick Johnson, Delgado, Glaus or someone else like that...Use that player as a stop gap and see how Snyder progresses this year.

Those 2 plans should be the way to go...Trading 4 or 5 prospects for 1 player and then sign that player to some absurd contract is a poor way of doing things..makes no sense for where we are as a team.

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Not really, besides Markakis and maybe Wieters, I don't see a 4-5 WAR position player on the Orioles.

And we don't play in the NL West, we play in the AL East.

Nolan Reimold, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones (if he reverts to 08 defensively), and Matt Wieters are all potential 4-5 win players. Will all of these guys be? no.

This excludes guys like Snyder and Bell who aren't yet on the big league team, but those guys obviously have the potential to be 4-5 win players.

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I have no problem with the thought that Snyder isn't likely to be our long term first baseman....I have serious doubts about that...Not so much about Bell though.

I also am fine with adding a long term solution at first...but the guy you acquire has to have 3+ years of service time.

IF you can't acquire that guy, then sign Nick Johnson, Delgado, Glaus or someone else like that...Use that player as a stop gap and see how Snyder progresses this year.

Those 2 plans should be the way to go...Trading 4 or 5 prospects for 1 player and then sign that player to some absurd contract is a poor way of doing things..makes no sense for where we are as a team.

This is exactly what we should do.

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Bottomline, we're not making the playoffs next year without a ton going right, so there's no need to trade a bunch for Fielder/AGon. So evaluate Snyder and Bell regardless of where they're playing, see how the rest of the team does, then re-evaluate what needs to be done to become a contender.

So if Synder and Bell don't look to be answers, fine, do something about that when that conclusion is reached.

It's not even like there's good long-term solutions available at those positions anyway.

Maybe Fielder and AGon are available, but good chance they aren't, and even if they are, they will cost a lot. Which brings us back to the WAR aspect, to get the added WAR of Fielder/AGon compared to Synder, you have to deal others who are expected to produce a decent amount of WAR for us.

This is a big part of the argument that continues to fly over Trea's head..That and the idea of young players improving greatly and older players declining.

Combine those ideas with the idea that we just spend money to replace those who we dealt for Fielder/AGon and you are then potentially getting locked into bad contracts, losing draft picks and just overall hurting the future.

And why? So Trea can feel better about the potential of contention in 2011.

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I'd want a stopgap yes, but I'm convinced Smoak is a LT solution that will be on the level of Teixeira, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Fielder etc. A 5.0+ WAR player.

I'm not convinced Snyder is, hence why we need to get a LT solution on the level of a Gonzalez or Fielder.

Bell might be a LT solution for 3B, but he's got to be able to hit LHP much better.

So even after Smoak struggled this year in the minors, you think he will be a perrenial .900+ OPS player.

He has an .856 career Mil OPS and .452 SLG. Don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be a very good player, likely better than Snyder, IMO. However, it isn't likely he will be on the level of the players you mentioned and the gap between him and Snyder is much smaller than you think.

I don't think anyone can know at this point how good a major league player Smoak will be. I'd call his first season a success. Remember, Wieters didn't even play AAA at all in his first year after the draft. But I'd almost never be willing to vouch that a player will be a 5.0 WAR player until they've done it.

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One point about the Yanks:

Yes, they will always buy players and have plenty of talent, however, I think it's clear that things could not have went much better for them this year. Other than ARod missing time early, they've had great health, especially considering the age of many of their guys.. Jeter had his best year in forever, and others had bigger years than you would expect, while few disappointed.

Arod, Jeter,and Posada should be declining quite a bit as a group in the near future. Matsui and Damon are free agents. Even Tex will likely start declining within a few years.

In terms of pitching, Pettitte is a free agent, Rivera is close to 40, and their two big signings from last year will likely decline/get hurt at some point during their long deals.

So while our young guys are improving and reaching their primes, the Yanks core will be declining.

Again, they'll add plenty of talent, but this is still something to keep in mind.

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When I hear the name Billy Butler for Snyder's comp and see in a Q+A that he'll get RBIs but will hit less than 20 HRs, I'm sure.

People are overrating Snyder on this board IMO because they want to desperately see a homegrown Oriole at 1B. He's a feel good story.

But is it really worth making it that much harder to compete to have that feel good story happen?

You read a comp for Snyder anywhere (Callis, Neyer, Tony) and make up your mind that your are certain of his ceiling? Wow.

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I don't think anyone can know at this point how good a major league player Smoak will be. I'd call his first season a success. Remember, Wieters didn't even play AAA at all in his first year after the draft. But I'd almost never be willing to vouch that a player will be a 5.0 WAR player until they've done it.

This is a very fair assessment, I wasn't trying to call Smoak's season a failure.

However, my overall point was that it is completely ridiculous to say with 100% certainty that Smoak will be a 5.0 WAR player and Snyder will not be a LT solution when they're numbers show that they are pretty comparable as hitters.

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One point about the Yanks:

Yes, they will always buy players and have plenty of talent, however, I think it's clear that things could not have went much better for them this year. Other than ARod missing time early, they've had great health, especially considering the age of many of their guys.. Jeter had his best year in forever, and others had bigger years than you would expect, while few disappointed.

Arod, Jeter,and Posada should be declining quite a bit as a group in the near future. Matsui and Damon are free agents. Even Tex will likely start declining within a few years.

In terms of pitching, Pettitte is a free agent, Rivera is close to 40, and their two big signings from last year will likely decline/get hurt at some point during their long deals.

So while our young guys are improving and reaching their primes, the Yanks core will be declining.

Again, they'll add plenty of talent, but this is still something to keep in mind.

The other 29 teams are the Yankees farm system. They won't decline in talent for long, because as their older talent declines, the deals will expire and $ will be freed up to sign younger players. The Yankees will be all over the 2011-2012 market and subsequent ones beyond.

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BTW a comment on the actual topic of the thread:

The thing I love from Snyder is how he says it is his goal to win the first job. He understands that nothing is going to be handed to handed to him.

His mindset is going to serve him very well, IMO. He's another one with his head on straight.

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The other 29 teams are the Yankees farm system. They won't decline in talent for long, because as their older talent declines, the deals will expire and $ will be freed up to sign younger players. The Yankees will be all over the 2011-2012 market and subsequent ones beyond.

Of course they will, but Arod and Jeter likely aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and they will decline. Those two along with Posada and Rivera have been a huge reason for their success, and with those guys declining or gone, it will hurt the team. It's not like it's easy to replace one of the best 5 players ever, the best closer ever, a 1st ballot HOF SS, and a HOF caliber catcher, especially when some of those same guys are at those positions, but just not nearly as good as they used to be.

So again, I'm not saying they'll fall off dramatically, but they aren't likely to consistently have years as good as this year.

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The other 29 teams are the Yankees farm system. They won't decline in talent for long, because as their older talent declines, the deals will expire and $ will be freed up to sign younger players. The Yankees will be all over the 2011-2012 market.

It is true that a lot went right for the Yankees in '09. But you are also correct, the Yankees will always reload. They had to put up with a couple of lousy years from Giambi, but his contract ended and they replaced him with Tex. The best you can hope for with the Yanks is that they misfire on a pitcher who gets hurt, or will hold on to an old favorite just a bit too long. I was amazed this year that Posada is still producing; he still has two years to go at $13 mm per. Damon, Matsui and Pettitte all have expiring contracts and it will be interesting to see what the Yanks do with them. My guess is Pettitte will be invited back, but the two OFs will get either no offer or a 1-2 year offer.

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BTW a comment on the actual topic of the thread:

The thing I love from Snyder is how he says it is his goal to win the first job. He understands that nothing is going to be handed to handed to him.

His mindset is going to serve him very well, IMO. He's another one with his head on straight.

Yeah, this thread has gotten WAY off course. Whatever you think of Snyder's ability or readiness to play in the majors, there's nothing NOT to like about his work ethic and attitude. I'd love to have him be a success and be an Oriole for a long time.

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