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Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"


SilentJames

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Yeah, the positional adjustment is huge for Izturis.

Although, every SS would get that positional adjustment. He's pretty much a league average SS. The positional adjustment is 7.5 runs over a full season (150 games). So basically if you take that into account, he's a 1.0 WARSS. And since replacement is values at 20 runs per 600 PAs, he's essentially a -1.0 WAASS (wins above average short stop). That's a rough calculation obviously, but he's a tad below league average at SS. If we can upgrade without it costing too much obviously we should look at it, but he's not a major problem by any stretch of the imagination. Especially not at his salary.

Right. This is my point. His positional value relative to his typical positional cost is the argument for keeping him if there are no long-term answers.

I'm not completely against bringing Hardy in for two years, btw. It would just depend on cost. I think we romanticize him a bit around here.

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Or he stays healthy over the course of a full season, plays everyday and wears down enough that it effects his range and he isn't worth a full win.
Ok Trea, wanna make up any more made up scenarios to fit your conclusion?

You're not gonna come out ahead if you are arguing that Izturis is an awful SS, unless we're using a very different degree of the word "awful". He's below average, but he's above replacement, even considering just shortstops.

An upgrade would be nice, but unless its a longer-term solution, its far from a necessity.

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Need to highlight the fact that you emphazise "established" and never once mention "good". Atkins was terrible, Feliz can't hit, DeRosa is 34 and had a .752 OPS, Lowell might have been the worst defensive player in MLB, Crede hit .225 and is only in the majors because of his glove, and Morales was coming off a season where he hit .213 with 3 homers and spent most of the year in Salt Lake City.

The Orioles will be fine without an established player at every position. I'm sure every one of those teams would have been more than happy to bench a Crede or a Atkins if they had a guy like Bell or Snyder knocking on the door.

If you noticed though there is a "good" established player at at least one of those corner spots for each playoff team.

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Ok Trea, wanna make up any more made up scenarios to fit your conclusion?

You're not gonna come out ahead if you are arguing that Izturis is an awful SS. He's below average, but he's above replacement, even considering just shortstops.

An upgrade would be nice, but unless its a longer-term solution, its far from a necessity.

And further, the distribution of his skills leans in the direction the O's favor, for now.

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Ok Trea, wanna make up any more made up scenarios to fit your conclusion?

You're not gonna come out ahead if you are arguing that Izturis is an awful SS. He's below average, but he's above replacement, even considering just shortstops.

An upgrade would be nice, but unless its a longer-term solution, its far from a necessity.

Don't forget his defensive "inconsistencies."

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You lost me here. Not really sure what you're talking about.

Sorry - WAR is built of component parts, largely hitting and fielding. Right now, for the O's, not all 1.3-2.0 WAR SS are created equal, because they're trying to favor good defense w/ their young pitching. Thus, Izturis makes more sense than a guy with a plus SS bat but sub-par SS glove.

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I will say if we do want to go with an Izturis type at SS, then we'll need to do better than Snyder at 1B IMO.

If SS is going to be that weak offensively, the offense has to be made up at other positions.

You do understand distribution, right? That whatever lag can be spread across an entire team. In no way - literally NO way - does carrying Izturis mean that 1B specifically need to produce more than Snyder. It particularly doesn't mean this when it is unclear just how much Snyder will produce.

That's inane. I'm sure the universe sings in perfect harmony inside your head, but it's sure as hell baffling from the outside.

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He has put up UZRs of 9+ and 10+ over the last two years. Defensive inconsistencies are not a concern. Outside of extreme youth, he only had down years when he was injured, had surgery, and first came back. A three year blip. Before that he was exceptional (UZR of 12+) and the last two years he has been elite (UZR of nearly 10 on average).

Let's not manufacture arguments.

LOL...Oh, just a 3 year blip? Who is the one manufacturing arguments now?

In his career, his UZR/150 is 5.3..He was very good in 2004, 2008 and 2009...The other years, below average. So yes, that is inconsistency but hey, why should a lawyer let facts get in the way of things..Twist that argument any which way you can.

I mean, you are ok with projecting out how good he would have been this year had he played all season but yet you didn't use that injury and coming back from injury excuse for this year..but why would you? :rolleyes:

In his entire career, he has been worth 5.1 wins....Not that great.

As I said, there is enough talent available at SS where this should be an area where this team makes a big improvement.

Unless traded, Izzy can stay on the team as our UTI IFer and get 1 or 2 starts a week...That would be fine.

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He has put up UZRs of 9+ and 10+ over the last two years. Defensive inconsistencies are not a concern. Outside of extreme youth, he only had down years when he was injured, had surgery, and first came back. A three year blip. Before that he was exceptional (UZR of 12+) and the last two years he has been elite (UZR of nearly 10 on average).

Let's not manufacture arguments.

Agreed. The guy is a stud in the field. His "inconsistencies" last year lasted maybe two weeks. He's a top notch defensive SS and there are no two ways about it.

It all boils down to whether we can carry a .640 OPS bat.

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LOL...Oh, just a 3 year blip? Who is the one manufacturing arguments now?

In his career, his UZR/150 is 5.3..He was very good in 2004, 2008 and 2009...The other years, below average. So yes, that is inconsistency but hey, why should a lawyer let facts get in the way of things..Twist that argument any which way you can.

I mean, you are ok with projecting out how good he would have been this year had he played all season but yet you didn't use that injury and coming back from injury excuse for this year..but why would you? :rolleyes:

In his entire career, he has been worth 5.1 wins....Not that great.

As I said, there is enough talent available at SS where this should be an area where this team makes a big improvement.

Unless traded, Izzy can stay on the team as our UTI IFer and get 1 or 2 starts a week...That would be fine.

Really? Are you actually equating an appendectomy to major shoulder surgery? One clearly had an impact on his numbers. The other was a just a freakish thing.

I think durability is something of a concern. I don't think his defense is.

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Really? Are you actually equating an appendectomy to major shoulder surgery? One clearly had an impact on his numbers. The other was a just a freakish thing.

I think durability is something of a concern. I don't think his defense is.

His defense isn't LIKELY to be a concern but you can't ignore the possibility that if his defense slips even a little bit, that he will not be worth a damn for us...No reason not to look for an imeediate replacement for him but I agree that it should be an upgrade, not another no hit, good field guy.

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In his career, his UZR/150 is 5.3..He was very good in 2004, 2008 and 2009...The other years, below average. So yes, that is inconsistency but hey, why should a lawyer let facts get in the way of things..Twist that argument any which way you can.
And you know better than most that you have to weigh the more recent history over stuff that is older.

Izturis may have some inconsistencies, but he's been pretty consistent recently. I think its pretty fair to say that he is very likely to be a 1.0-1.5 WAR player at SS next year.

Again, my main conclusion is that it would be nice to upgrade, and there are certainly options to do so out there and if they come at the right price we should jump at it, but an upgrade at SS for 2010 cannot possibly be described as a necessity.

This argument is separate from the need for us to find someone to be our SS from 2011 and beyond. That I agree is a necessity, I think we just disagree over the urgency involved there. We need to find that guy sometime before 2011, if that pops up now, we should pounce but against its not a necessity to find out 2011 SS during the offseason before 2010.

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If you noticed though there is a "good" established player at at least one of those corner spots for each playoff team.

So? There have been hundreds of playoff teams. I guarantee many of them didn't have premium talent or established players or whatever your criteria for success is at first and third. The 2005 Angels won 95 games with a terrible first baseman and no regular at third. The 2003 Cubs went to the playoffs and didn't really have a regular at first or third. The '03 Giants had aging, mediocre platoon players at each infield corner. The '06 Padres had Adrian Gonzalez in essentially his rookie year, and Vinny Castilla who was essentially dead.

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