Jump to content

Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"


SilentJames

Recommended Posts

No. Pie was out of options, out of favor, had performed poorly in the majors and was blocked. Olson was basically that, too, just with less upside.

Trea suggests that Snyder is going to be a poor first baseman in the majors, but that his AFL performance would convince someone otherwise and fool them into taking him as a big part of a trade for the mythical established premium player.

I'm not saying he'll be a poor ML 1B man. I'm saying he'll take a few years to develop and he won't produce enough to be an adequate 1B man in the AL East.

For another team in another division, he might be perfect.

Billy Butler for instance (Snyder's comp) was only a 2.5 WAR player this year.

Youkilis and Teixeira were 5.5 and 5.2 WAR players respectively. That means we need to find 2.7 - 2.3 WAR somewhere else.

That 2.3 - 2.7 WAR may not matter to a team in the AL Central, but for the AL East when you need around 50.0 WAR total, every WAR counts...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 368
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I like your plan overall but disagree here. I see no need for a short-term replacement. As Gordo pointed out in another thread, there are very few SS who offer anything above a UZR/150 of 5 and an OPS of .750. We don't actually lose that much with Izturis at SS relative to the rest of the league. And what we get as a replacement is necessarily going to be expensive. I don't see the need short-term.

Naturally I agree.:laughlol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What time frame are we talking about now? 2010?

I think in 2010 we need to get a good look at Snyder and Bell so we can judge what they are, and what they are likely to become. Your assumption is that Snyder isnt going to be very good. I'm not convinced of that at all. I'd like to spend a good chunk of 2010 finding out.

For sake of argument, let's say Snyder gets called up some time in May and puts up a .280/.340/.440 line in 400 PA. What would you make of that? Personally, I'd say "good rookie year" and plan on him being my starting 1B for the foreseeable future. Obviously I don't want a .780 OPS 1B out there every year, but if I got that from Snyder at 23 I'd be projecting him as an .850 guy in the near future.

I think his assumption is that Snyder isn't likely to become Fielder, Howard, Pujols or he who can not be named.:laughlol:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The idea behind dealing Guthrie now and then replacing him with someone who may not be that much better, if better at all, is because Guthrie could get worse or stay above a 5 ERA(see 1970's latest article).

Yeah but so could the guy we sign right?

But right now, his actual stats say he was a #2 type guy for 2 years and a #4 for this year and got to the 200 IP mark.

That has value..Plus, he is still cheap and under control for a while...So, take advantage of that now and go get the player(s) you need and then replace him with one of the several guys out there that could do the same job or better as JG.

I don't know, I think that his replacement will clearly cost more than him and ultimately you have to determine if you think he is going to get worse or if you think he is the #2 stuff/#4 innings eater guy you talked about above. I get that if you think he is going to get worse then you sell now but if you think he is going to be the latter of your examples then I think the value he provides to the O's is much higher than what you would get trading him. Cheap, known (as opposed to a FA), good attitude, innings eater on a staff full of youngsters. I have no idea which direction the warehouse thinks he is going to go but to me if I think he is going to be the latter example you keep him. Pitching (especially on this team) is something we should be keeping not trading away. With that said, I am someone who believe everyplayer is tradeable given enough return but I just can't see how Guthrie is going to get enough return this offseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are right..I agree that those are bad examples.

I also agree that we need more talent and much better production out of the CI spots...But you where you are incorrect is saying that those needs to be addressed tomorrow...That's just not right.

The Orioles have to see what Snyder and Bell can do for them. You can't block them...Now, you can trade them and go from there but they shouldn't be dealt, especially Bell, for a 1-2 year option.

We are much weaker relatively at 3B and 1B than SS, and you are correct in saying these positions need not be addressed tiomorrow. You are incorrect however, in thinking that SS need be addressed tomorrow.:laughlol:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are much weaker relatively at 3B and 1B than SS, and you are correct in saying these positions need not be addressed tiomorrow. You are incorrect however, in thinking that SS need be addressed tomorrow.:laughlol:

But we have potential long term options at 3rd and 1st...nothing at SS. :rofl::rofl::laughlol::laughlol::rofl::laughlol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not saying he'll be a poor ML 1B man. I'm saying he'll take a few years to develop and he won't produce enough to be an adequate 1B man in the AL East.

For another team in another division, he might be perfect.

Billy Butler for instance (Snyder's comp) was only a 2.5 WAR player this year.

Youkilis and Teixeira were 5.5 and 5.2 WAR players respectively. That means we need to find 2.7 - 2.3 WAR somewhere else.

That 2.3 - 2.7 WAR may not matter to a team in the AL Central, but for the AL East when you need around 50.0 WAR total, every WAR counts...[/QUOTI bet we find those WAR at C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But we have potential long term options at 3rd and 1st...nothing at SS. :rofl::rofl::laughlol::laughlol::rofl::laughlol:

I definitely think we need an upgrade at SS, but the day after tomorrow, not tomorrow. You aren't going to find a SS for next year who is a significantly better hitter than Izturis without giving up a lot on defense and more in trade. Why trade Guthrie for Hardy(just about the only possibility) when you can keep Izturis and trade Guthrie for something else we need more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely think we need an upgrade at SS, but the day after tomorrow, not tomorrow. You aren't going to find a SS for next year who is a significantly better hitter than Izturis without giving up a lot on defense and more in trade. Why trade Guthrie for Hardy(just about the only possibility) when you can keep Izturis and trade Guthrie for something else we need more.

Because you aren't likely to bring in something as valuable as Hardy...The only reason we could get Hardy for Guthrie is because Hardy had an off year last year.

I would like to get some kind of established ML player for Guthrie if possible.

Now, if we can get a younger SS option, who is under control for longer, for Guthrie that would be fine..and preferred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely think we need an upgrade at SS, but the day after tomorrow, not tomorrow. You aren't going to find a SS for next year who is a significantly better hitter than Izturis without giving up a lot on defense and more in trade. Why trade Guthrie for Hardy(just about the only possibility) when you can keep Izturis and trade Guthrie for something else we need more.

What do we need more that we can get for Guts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely think we need an upgrade at SS, but the day after tomorrow, not tomorrow. You aren't going to find a SS for next year who is a significantly better hitter than Izturis without giving up a lot on defense and more in trade. Why trade Guthrie for Hardy(just about the only possibility) when you can keep Izturis and trade Guthrie for something else we need more.
Because you aren't likely to bring in something as valuable as Hardy...The only reason we could get Hardy for Guthrie is because Hardy had an off year last year.

I would like to get some kind of established ML player for Guthrie if possible.

Now, if we can get a younger SS option, who is under control for longer, for Guthrie that would be fine..and preferred.

I think you guys are closer to one another than the argument implies. The real argument for Hardy now is precisely the argument that Gordo applied to me in the other thread: what Hardy represents (if he returns even close to prior form) is so exceedingly rare that jumping the gun makes some sense.

If he's a .700-.800 OPS guy with a UZR over 5, then he's a very valuable commodity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes but he may not be as cheap, not under control for as long and may have issues in terms of injuries and reliablity(see Harden or Duscherer for example).

Huh?

The idea behind dealing Guthrie now and then replacing him with someone who may not be that much better, if better at all, is because Guthrie could get worse or stay above a 5 ERA(see 1970's latest article).

My response was the that guy you replace him with could also post a 5 ERA and thus my response "So could the guy you sign"

The point you make in the first quote would actually support not going after a FA in exchange for trading Guthrie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...