Number 13 Prospect: SS - Pedro Florimon

[QBsILLEST1]

Only ones that rated Matzek or Turner higher than Hobgood . Sorry that was just too easy.

But really, all those guys might have high projectability, but you need to incorporate what is mostly likely to happen to actually rate them. Most HS pitchers are never going to make it out of the minors.

Example Wirsch might be a #3 pitcher (There are very TOR of the rotation prospects, not a slight at Wirsch). What is that probability that he reaches it since he has pitched so little professionally?

Well, the guys I mentioned, only 1 was an HS arm. And also the guys I mentioned for the most part dont have a ton of projectability left. And yes, true most HS kids never make it out of the minors, but you could say the same for JuCo players and college players, but not all HS kids are created equal. I know you have to incorporate what might actually happen to them, thats called "projecting" them. Now, my point in my argument was more or less focused on the JuCo guys. Wirsch is too far away to project right now, he can be anywhere from a TOR to not in baseball, I need to see a bit more from him before I can make a solid judgement. But, when you are projecting a player, the reason you mention floor is to answer the question of basically worst case scenario(barring injury). Your projection should be in between your ceiling and your floor, so it accounts for what might happen to the kid.

[crawdad]

How realistic is it to expect anything from someone hitting the way Florimon has the two seasons prior to this?

I ask honestly....who are some examples of sub-600 OPSers with that BB/K rate and low SLG% that have made the bigs?

I just can't see how any scouting metric would trump those numbers...just awful.

Not sure how applicable, but Tony said he did a study on guys with 600 lines as a 19 year old and none of them became much of anything. I imagine that point is more true with 21 year olds who cannot do a thing. Of course, there are fielding and hitting differences here.

I'd say there are cases when prospects break out. Florimon may have been able to change something to help his contact rate. His plate discipline appears about the same.

He is a C+ kind of guy. No one tool really stands out, but he has a couple that could help.

[ejf1025]

Not sure how applicable, but Tony said he did a study on guys with 600 lines as a 19 year old and none of them became much of anything. I imagine that point is more true with 21 year olds who cannot do a thing. Of course, there are fielding and hitting differences here.

I'd say there are cases when prospects break out. Florimon may have been able to change something to help his contact rate. His plate discipline appears about the same.

He is a C+ kind of guy. No one tool really stands out, but he has a couple that could help.

Enough tools to make up the deficit tho? At best the guy is Robert Andino per the #s...most likely never getting to the bigs.

I just don't see how he could possibly be ahead of Steve Johnson or Mychal Givens, etc.

What could a scout possibly be seeing in this guy? I mean the guy better be the second-coming of Omar Vizquel out there.

[QBsILLEST1]

Not sure how applicable, but Tony said he did a study on guys with 600 lines as a 19 year old and none of them became much of anything. I imagine that point is more true with 21 year olds who cannot do a thing. Of course, there are fielding and hitting differences here.

I'd say there are cases when prospects break out. Florimon may have been able to change something to help his contact rate. His plate discipline appears about the same.

He is a C+ kind of guy. No one tool really stands out, but he has a couple that could help.

You have a guy like Givens who sounds fairly similar to Florimon here, good glove good arm, bat is the big question mark. But, Givens since he is 2 years younger has a higher ceiling and has a much much better chance IMO of developing the bat into atleast average since he has more developmental time, do you rate the guy who has had the chance to develop the bat and is faltering higher or the guy who hasnt had the chance and still could possibly develop closer to his ceiling higher?

If you have 2 track athletes, and you are anticipating for them both to beat the world's record for fastest mile. One of the guys is already halfway through and is about 15 seconds behind track. The other guy is still at the starting point, hasn't begun yet. Who do you think has the better chance of beating the record? Id go with the guy who still has a chance to start fresh...Is that a decent analogy? Basically I think Givens should be rated higher...

[RandyM]

Well, the guys I mentioned, only 1 was an HS arm. And also the guys I mentioned for the most part dont have a ton of projectability left. And yes, true most HS kids never make it out of the minors, but you could say the same for JuCo players and college players, but not all HS kids are created equal. I know you have to incorporate what might actually happen to them, thats called "projecting" them. Now, my point in my argument was more or less focused on the JuCo guys. Wirsch is too far away to project right now, he can be anywhere from a TOR to not in baseball, I need to see a bit more from him before I can make a solid judgement. But, when you are projecting a player, the reason you mention floor is to answer the question of basically worst case scenario(barring injury). Your projection should be in between your ceiling and your floor, so it accounts for what might happen to the kid.

I think we agree for the most part. I think where we disagree slightly is what is someone's projection. There aren't that many prospects that "really" project as true TOR's. You can say if the person improves their 40 command to a 60 and develops their slider which is a 50 to a 70, sure. That said being a projection of a #2 or even a #3 starter isn't a bad project to have. There are probably on 4 - 8 true TOR in baseball right now even though there are many more teams. This isn't a slight on our prospects.

[Tony-OH]

Honestly...I have to come back to this...

What am I missing here?

He OPS'd below .600 (!) at Delmarva in consecutive years...didn't break .300 slg...doesn't walk...strikesout a lot.

Sounds like a good month or two at Fred. is what got him here...

Not really feeling good about whoever is coming in below him.

Well, apparently you missed my explanation about why I think he struggled so badly in Delmarva. Regardless, he's at this point on the list because of his defense and his potential with the bat. Almost every major league shortstop made a ton of errors in the minors so that's not really a huge concern.

He showed show pop, he can run, and he certainly can play major league shortstop. At worse he could end up a decent utility guy because of his ability to play short and run a little. His bat is a question mark, no doubt, but that's why he's at #13. Are there some guys below him on the list that have higher ceilings? Certainly, but they also have a lot of question marks as well. If Avery or Hoes were plus defenders they would probably be over them but neither are at this juncture.

Honestly, there is one sure thing on this list and his name is Matusz. the rest of them you have to take all things into consideration and my opinion this is where Florimon falls. You guys may be right and he might fall flat on his face in Bowie next year, but if Luis Hernandez can find his way to the major leagues there is certainly no reason Florimon can't because he's a much better defensive player and had a jump in power at the age you want to see it despite not looking noticeably bigger.

[wickedwitch]

How realistic is it to expect anything from someone hitting the way Florimon has the two seasons prior to this?

I ask honestly....who are some examples of sub-600 OPSers with that BB/K rate and low SLG% that have made the bigs?

I just can't see how any scouting metric would trump those numbers...just awful.

I don't know how true this is with regards to Florimon, but looking at career minor league stats is next to pointless. When prospects improve, these improvements won't be shown in prior year's stats.

[Tony-OH]

How realistic is it to expect anything from someone hitting the way Florimon has the two seasons prior to this?

I ask honestly....who are some examples of sub-600 OPSers with that BB/K rate and low SLG% that have made the bigs?

I just can't see how any scouting metric would trump those numbers...just awful.

By the way, can I ask you why you are focusing on prior years stats instead of the ones from last year?

[ejf1025]

I don't know how true this is with regards to Florimon, but looking at career minor league stats is next to pointless. When prospects improve, these improvements won't be shown in prior year's stats.

I don't know if it is pointless at all...in fact, I would say putting up consecutive back to back sub-600 OPS seasons is very topical in re: projecting Florimon.

[ejf1025]

By the way, can I ask you why you are focusing on prior years stats instead of the ones from last year?

Because those stats represent almost 50% of his career ABs...and I couldn't find his 09 splits, which I believe will show a precipitous drop also.

[wickedwitch]

Florimon is not a MLer. This "flashy" defense I'm hearing has resulted in a terribly inconsistent shortstop. 35 Errors this season. That's a .935 fielding percentage. And that's his average through four minor league seasons.

This year, of the 22 SS as qualified by the Elias Sports Bureau, no everyday ML SS had a fielding percentage below .962 and that was a tie between Jason Bartlett and Cristian Guzman. Orlando Cabrera made the most errors of all everyday SS with 25 in 158 games. I can't imagine what kind of butcher Florimon would be at the ML level.

I know there's not much on defense in the minors, but fielding percentage is still almost worthless. And minor league fields are frequently in poor condition, which makes fielding harder.

FWIW, which may not be anything, TotalZone has Florimon as above average for both of the past two seasons.

[crawdad]

You have a guy like Givens who sounds fairly similar to Florimon here, good glove good arm, bat is the big question mark. But, Givens since he is 2 years younger has a higher ceiling and has a much much better chance IMO of developing the bat into atleast average since he has more developmental time, do you rate the guy who has had the chance to develop the bat and is faltering higher or the guy who hasnt had the chance and still could possibly develop closer to his ceiling higher?

If you have 2 track athletes, and you are anticipating for them both to beat the world's record for fastest mile. One of the guys is already halfway through and is about 15 seconds behind track. The other guy is still at the starting point, hasn't begun yet. Who do you think has the better chance of beating the record? Id go with the guy who still has a chance to start fresh...Is that a decent analogy? Basically I think Givens should be rated higher...

Florimon's swing looks better than Givens', but I have only seen a few of his swings. Givens might be able to make more changes on his swing.

[wickedwitch]

Because those stats represent almost 50% of his career ABs...and I couldn't find his 09 splits, which I believe will show a precipitous drop also.

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=465753

[Tony-OH]

Because those stats represent almost 50% of his career ABs...and I couldn't find his 09 splits, which I believe will show a precipitous drop also.

Are you still a plus member? It doesn't appear that you've read my take on him because his split numbers were in there.

[ejf1025]

Are you still a plus member? It doesn't appear that you've read my take on him because his split numbers were in there.

I am not...I actually thought it would just rollover...and just havent gotten around to re-upping.

So I have had to use the thread and the stats I could find...

He actually bounced back very well in August...which I wasn't aware of. June/July were terrible.