Who is the #16 prospect?

[Tony-OH]

Steve Johnson is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Bergesen is a strong ground ball pitcher. Johnson strikes out a lot more guys than Bergesen. I really don't see the similarity.

And let me add he's got marginal stuff on top of it which is not a good combo for future success. However, he's a bulldog-type guy who has overachieved so I wouldn't count him out.

He'll be coming up soon...maybe the next pick

Maybe not...

[tywright]

Didn't want you guys to miss again.

Maybe you're missing...

[NCRaven]

Steve Johnson is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Bergesen is a strong ground ball pitcher. Johnson strikes out a lot more guys than Bergesen. I really don't see the similarity.

I know this wasn't directed to my post, since I didn't compare them as far as the type of pitcher that they are, just that both seem to be under-appreciated at the same point in their careers. But, your post points out something that deserves mention.

When Bergesen was put around #20, it was because of his low K rates. The comments seemed to be "yeah, he gets ground balls at this level, but his low K rates means that his stuff won't play at a higher level."

Now, Johnson has high K rates and still gets no credit for that since he has high flyball rates. I don't think it will be a surprise if he gives up more home runs than Bergesen. But, if he doesn't put a lot of men on base and the home runs are solo shots, he still has a chance to be very effective.

It just seems strange to me that low K rates lead to a lack of appreciation to Bergesen and much higher K rates result in little support for Johnson.

Guess I just like rooting for the underdog. After all, I am an O's fan!

[Frobby]

I know this wasn't directed to my post, since I didn't compare them as far as the type of pitcher that they are, just that both seem to be under-appreciated at the same point in their careers. But, your post points out something that deserves mention.

When Bergesen was put around #20, it was because of his low K rates. The comments seemed to be "yeah, he gets ground balls at this level, but his low K rates means that his stuff won't play at a higher level."

Now, Johnson has high K rates and still gets no credit for that since he has high flyball rates. I don't think it will be a surprise if he gives up more home runs than Bergesen. But, if he doesn't put a lot of men on base and the home runs are solo shots, he still has a chance to be very effective.

It just seems strange to me that low K rates lead to a lack of appreciation to Bergesen and much higher K rates result in little support for Johnson.

Guess I just like rooting for the underdog. After all, I am an O's fan!

Ground ball pitchers are the flavor of the month now that we've seen how Bergesen did compared to the higher-ranked David Hernandez. More seriously, though, Johnson allows more fly balls than Hernandez and strikes out fewer, so if you saw how Hernandez struggled with the HR's you have to be worried about how Johnson would do. His GB/FB ratio is the most extreme FB rate of any pitcher I know in the system.

[Three Run Homer]

I'm surprised by the amount of support for Givens in this poll. He's got a lot of the same pluses and minuses as Avery, plus he hasn't played any pro ball while Avery played at Delmarva this year at age 19 and put up respectable numbers; and there have to be some lingering concerns about Givens' makeup/attitude given the way the contract negotiations proceeded. I don't have a problem with Avery not making the list so far, but I'd be surprised if Givens winds up higher than Avery on Tony's list.

[wickedwitch]

I'm surprised by the amount of support for Givens in this poll. He's got a lot of the same pluses and minuses as Avery, plus he hasn't played any pro ball while Avery played at Delmarva this year at age 19 and put up respectable numbers; and there have to be some lingering concerns about Givens' makeup/attitude given the way the contract negotiations proceeded. I don't have a problem with Avery not making the list so far, but I'd be surprised if Givens winds up higher than Avery on Tony's list.

He has a big plus over Avery: he's a SS with a solid chance of being good enough to field like one in the majors. Avery doesn't really have a position yet, but whatever it is, it'll be lower on the defensive spectrum than SS.

[crawdad]

He has a big plus over Avery: he's a SS with a solid chance of being good enough to field like one in the majors. Avery doesn't really have a position yet, but whatever it is, it'll be lower on the defensive spectrum than SS.

I think much of Givens secondary value is that he projects to be a pretty decent reliever.

[QBsILLEST1]

I know this wasn't directed to my post, since I didn't compare them as far as the type of pitcher that they are, just that both seem to be under-appreciated at the same point in their careers. But, your post points out something that deserves mention.

When Bergesen was put around #20, it was because of his low K rates. The comments seemed to be "yeah, he gets ground balls at this level, but his low K rates means that his stuff won't play at a higher level."

Now, Johnson has high K rates and still gets no credit for that since he has high flyball rates. I don't think it will be a surprise if he gives up more home runs than Bergesen. But, if he doesn't put a lot of men on base and the home runs are solo shots, he still has a chance to be very effective.

It just seems strange to me that low K rates lead to a lack of appreciation to Bergesen and much higher K rates result in little support for Johnson.

Guess I just like rooting for the underdog. After all, I am an O's fan!

IMO a high flyball rate is more of a pitcher killer than a low K rate. Especially if you consider that the low K rate is accompanied by a high GB rate. So what if he isn't K'ing a ton of people if they are hitting the ball on the ground. Then you look at the flip side and say, so what if he(Johnson) has a high K rate if he gives up a ton of HRs.

But its more than just that, Bergy has excellent command and pitchability, hes just more of a complete package of a pitcher than Johnson. Johnson really only has the good K rate which doesnt compensate enough for extreme flyball rates and average stuff at best.

[Stotle]

He has a big plus over Avery: he's a SS with a solid chance of being good enough to field like one in the majors. Avery doesn't really have a position yet, but whatever it is, it'll be lower on the defensive spectrum than SS.

Respectfully, I disagree with the bolded. I know I am likely in the minority, but dating back to last summer I thought Givens's tendency to swipe at grounders and some of the stiffness in his actions would limit his overall defensive value. Furthermore, he has a wide frame that, theoretically, could diminish his range if it were to fill in too thick. I don't see him as a good bet to stick at SS and provide ML value -- though I understand why Jordan might think he's athletic enough to continue to develop. I also admit I could be way off in my appraisal, as I know sources like Baseball America have stated he's a good defender. I just don't see "safe bet" or even "good bet" with him on the defensive side. At least, not yet. Finally, when I saw him he didn't particularly set himself up well on throws and his arm action combined with this to adversely affect his accuracy, even if his arm strength is easily enough for the left side.

There are just a lot of holes on the positional player side of things for me, and I'm not surprised at all that he hasn't clocked in on the list, yet. I hope I'm very wrong, but I think relief arm is the way to develop him, though given what has been invested (a 2nd round pick) I understand giving him every chance to develop into a solid pro SS.

[Stotle]

I think much of Givens secondary value is that he projects to be a pretty decent reliever.

I agree, but he needs a fair amount of work on the mound, too. Most of his "projection" on the mound is in his ability to go mid-90s and touch 97 in shorter stints. His slider was inconsistent and his change-up is problematic since he throws it so hard and from that side-armed slot. I think there's potential there, but again I think it takes a bit of work (which is why I'd like to see him shifted there sooner rather than later, if that's his destination). All that said, I hope Jordan/Stockstill are right-on with developing him as a SS, and that he develops into a good one.

[AVencill]

In helping Tony come up with the list, while we were checking names and doing plenty of debating back and forth, I brought up the fact that Steve Johnson would be this year's Bergesen. Boy did I call that one!

[LookinUp]

In helping Tony come up with the list, while we were checking names and doing plenty of debating back and forth, I brought up the fact that Steve Johnson would be this year's Bergesen. Boy did I call that one!

Hopefully he's 2010's "2009 Bergesen" too.

[Hank Scorpio]

Ashur Tolliver!!!!!!!!

[Mooreisbetter27]

I also went with Givens and believe Johnson will be somewhere around the 20 range honestly. Just from some of the things Tony's said about him.

[JayThomas]

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