BA Jim Callis Chat at ESPN

[Lucky Jim]

Green is closer to his ceiling, but Hobgood has a higher ceiling.

But Green may be MUCH closer to his ceiling, while Hobgood's ceiling is only marginally higher than Green's. Hypothetically.

[allstar1579]

But Green may be MUCH closer to his ceiling, while Hobgood's ceiling is only marginally higher than Green's. Hypothetically.

Funny you said that, because I had originally written that Hobgood's ceiling was MUCH higher, but then I took it out because I knew the debate that was going to stir up, and I'm too tired for all that tonight.

[Lucky Jim]

Funny you said that, because I had originally written that Hobgood's ceiling was MUCH higher, but then I took it out because I knew the debate that was going to stir up, and I'm too tired for all that tonight.

I won't argue it. But I disagree. Strongly.

[allstar1579]

I won't argue it. But I disagree. Strongly.

Thanks. Home alone with the kid for 5 days, I just don't have it in me. I'll give you an I.O.U.

I respect that though, in the end I could be really wrong, but I just don't have the good feelings about Green that I had about G. Beckham, and I took a lot of heat for Beckham, so who knows.

[Lucky Jim]

What do you put more stock in, the draft prognosticators or the ML teams who send scouts and crosscheckers to scout these guys?

How many ML teams felt Green was a top ten talent when it was time to put up or shutup?

Was that about talent, or perceived demands?

[allstar1579]

I respect your opinion enough to ask why you think this. After his Soph year in College, Green goes to the Cape, and is the best player in a league of prospects with a wooden bat. He heads into his Jr year as the 2nd ranked player overall, and the best position player in the draft.

For whatever reason (draftitis, injury, stagnation) Green did not live up to expectations last-year... but that did not erase his past-accomplishments.

What was Hobgood doing in HS to show that he had a superior ceiling? Yes, he showed he could also hit a bit, in addition to what he achieved on the mound. However, going into the last days of the draft, nearly every draft prognosticator had Hobgood in the late 1st-round. If his pure talent had shown him to have a higher ceiling, would not most people have ranked him higher?

I am fine with the O's and Jordan identifying the player they wanted, and selecting him. It is their career, they should take the player they want... but besides being less-likely to reach his own ceiling, I fully question the idea that he is a player with more overall talent than Green.

Ok, I'll bite, but don't hold it against me if I'm not the most coherent right now...Green always looked solid but not spectacular for me, I thought of him somewhere between Tulo and Bobby Crosby (and I know that gap has grown recently). I was curious about him last season, but it was one I needed to see him take that next step forward, and instead he took two back.

Hobby flew under the radar until right before the draft, as you said, mid-late 1st round, but by draft week it was not just the O's that were in on him in the top 10, but just because the national mock draft guys weren't on him, don't worry, quite a few teams were in on him late. I don't know if that is based more on the ability to sign him quick compared to some of the other top HS arms, or just the amount of projectability he's got. Big strong kid, looks like a good bet to add some velo, a legit plus curve already and a good feel for a change that looks like it will improve.

What it comes down to is I think that Green was rated highly because of the premium of his position, and if I were to compare him to 3 SS prospects past present and future, I'd rank them G. Beckham, C. Colon, and then G. Green. I see him being solid, but never a real difference maker or an all-star, but Hobgood looks to be a very solid starter with potential to be a great starter since he is much younger than Green as well.

[allstar1579]

Was that about talent, or perceived demands?

I didn't think he was ever asking for anything really outrageous. I could be wrong because the only people who knew were a couple scouts, some GMs and his people, but it's not like he was asking for Ackley money.

[Stotle]

All in my opinion...

I still don't understand the idea of Hobgood having big upside and projection. Aside from improving his endurance (in-game and over a season) and improving his change-up, what growth are people expecting? Where is the extra velocity going to come from? He's already got some effort in his delivery and some recoil in his arm action. His command most likely wont ever be anything special unless he softens his landing some. His curve has plus spin and is a great pitch when on right now, but I don't see him adding depth or bite, and he already throws in around 78-81, right?

Isn't he essentially Tillman now minus the change-up and without the room for projection in his frame and stuff? I don't mean to hammer the kid, and I certainly know that my opinion is far from something that should carry evaluative weight when compared to the pros, but this doesn't seem like a super complicated case. Open question to all of the high-ceiling Hobgoblins, what am I missing? Or is it as simple as deferring to Jordan and his staff? I am honestly asking because I want to know what I'm not seeing so I don't do the same thing in the future.

[NoVaO]

I wouldn't of drafted Hobgood at No. 5 -- I'd have gone one of Wheeler, Matzek, or Turner -- but Green is not the slam dunk prospect many think he is.

He doesn't walk much and he struck out almost twice as often as he walked (this was true all three of his years at USC). He didn't show a lot of present power last year and he regressed in almost every area of his game as a junior. In addition, his defense at shortstop is being questioned and he'll lose a lot of his value if he has to move off the position.

Don't get me wrong...he's a very good prospect, but I don't think he's the guy we'll be wishing we drafted over Hobgood when all is said and done.

[McNulty]

All in my opinion...

I still don't understand the idea of Hobgood having big upside and projection. Aside from improving his endurance (in-game and over a season) and improving his change-up, what growth are people expecting? Where is the extra velocity going to come from? He's already got some effort in his delivery and some recoil in his arm action. His command most likely wont ever be anything special unless he softens his landing some. His curve has plus spin and is a great pitch when on right now, but I don't see him adding depth or bite, and he already throws in around 78-81, right?

Isn't he essentially Tillman now minus the change-up and without the room for projection in his frame and stuff? I don't mean to hammer the kid, and I certainly know that my opinion is far from something that should carry evaluative weight when compared to the pros, but this doesn't seem like a super complicated case. Open question to all of the high-ceiling Hobgoblins, what am I missing? Or is it as simple as deferring to Jordan and his staff? I am honestly asking because I want to know what I'm not seeing so I don't do the same thing in the future.

Quite frankly, I think his ceiling is Joe Blanton. In and of itself that isn't a bad thing, but at 1:5, not so much.

[Ruzious]

Ok, I'll bite, but don't hold it against me if I'm not the most coherent right now...Green always looked solid but not spectacular for me, I thought of him somewhere between Tulo and Bobby Crosby (and I know that gap has grown recently). I was curious about him last season, but it was one I needed to see him take that next step forward, and instead he took two back.

Hobby flew under the radar until right before the draft, as you said, mid-late 1st round, but by draft week it was not just the O's that were in on him in the top 10, but just because the national mock draft guys weren't on him, don't worry, quite a few teams were in on him late. I don't know if that is based more on the ability to sign him quick compared to some of the other top HS arms, or just the amount of projectability he's got. Big strong kid, looks like a good bet to add some velo, a legit plus curve already and a good feel for a change that looks like it will improve.

What it comes down to is I think that Green was rated highly because of the premium of his position, and if I were to compare him to 3 SS prospects past present and future, I'd rank them G. Beckham, C. Colon, and then G. Green. I see him being solid, but never a real difference maker or an all-star, but Hobgood looks to be a very solid starter with potential to be a great starter since he is much younger than Green as well.

That's where I think your logic starts to fall apart. He's already filled out - unlike most of the projectable HS pitchers. That means he's much more likely than those who haven't filled out - to have hit his physical peek - especially with regard to his fastball. And if Green has close to Tulo potential (and I'm not saying he does - but you mentioned him), then he's gotta be the better prospect.

[Frobby]

I will leave it to those of you who have seen these guys play and who try to really understand scouting techniques to debate the ceilings of Hobgood and Green. But I will say this: there is no doubt that Jordan is out there on a limb with this pick. If Hobgood pans out, Jordan is going to look like a genius who wasn't afraid to believe in himself and his scouting team. If he fails, then he's going to look like a fool who lost an opportunity to choose a more highly regarded and much safer player and got burned. Only time will tell what it will be.

I would have picked Green, but then again, I'm not a scout. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping Jordan will be proven right, or at least not proven horribly wrong.

[Sports Guy]

I don't hate the Hobgood pick but I think Green, Wheeler and Matzek should have gone ahead of him.

Green has a lot of mixed reports but you know what, they all do and Green is an established college bat at a premium position.

[Sports Guy]

This is not really true. If so, he would have been a no brainer at #5. I guess it depends on what "established college bat" means. There are serious questions about his bat.

Wait, you mean to tell me that a draft propsect had questions about him and moxed reviews?

NO WAY!..That never happens!

As Chris said, he was the slam dunk best hitter entering his senior season...He showed he could hit with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod league.

The only real question, to me, was can he stay at SS...Because if he can and if he can be an average or better defensive SS, he only needs to post a 700+ OPS to be a league average SS.

I think he would have been a better than league average SS...and he will be in the majors, barring injury, by 2012 and probably 2011.

[allstar1579]

All in my opinion...

I still don't understand the idea of Hobgood having big upside and projection. Aside from improving his endurance (in-game and over a season) and improving his change-up, what growth are people expecting? Where is the extra velocity going to come from? He's already got some effort in his delivery and some recoil in his arm action. His command most likely wont ever be anything special unless he softens his landing some. His curve has plus spin and is a great pitch when on right now, but I don't see him adding depth or bite, and he already throws in around 78-81, right?

Isn't he essentially Tillman now minus the change-up and without the room for projection in his frame and stuff? I don't mean to hammer the kid, and I certainly know that my opinion is far from something that should carry evaluative weight when compared to the pros, but this doesn't seem like a super complicated case. Open question to all of the high-ceiling Hobgoblins, what am I missing? Or is it as simple as deferring to Jordan and his staff? I am honestly asking because I want to know what I'm not seeing so I don't do the same thing in the future.

I think it's a much safer pick than some of the other HS arms out there, but the more I've seen of him since, I do like him. It was well stated to say he looks like he could be a Joe Blanton type, it's not a bad comparison in the point being he looks to be a solid starter, not necessarily an all-star (as presently scouted) but a good bet to reach his ceiling, much like we were saying with Green. My argument has much more to do with not liking Green than loving Hobby, but I think he ends up a solid workhorse, and the rumblings I've heard have him working on a cutter, and he's got a different kind of grip on his change that is supposed to really help things. I really want to see him this upcoming season because it seems like JJ and company had a plan in mind when they drafted him, work is already under way and I'd like to see where they are going with it.

I kind of think of Hobgood as Brandon Workman without going to college, and I think if workman had come out last season he may have gone higher than he's being looked at right now.

Keep in mind through all of this that I would have drafted both Matzek and Wheeler over Hobby, but I would have taken all 3 over Green. Grant has had 3 not-so special seasons at USC, and then one good summer in the Cape. I think all of the hype was built around that one summer and I just don't buy it. I know I mentioned Tulo, but I should have clarified, I don't think he becomes ANYWHERE near him, I had used him when Green was coming out of the Cape season, but after seeing him last year I saw a lot more Bobby Crosby than Tulo.