BA Jim Callis Chat at ESPN

[Stotle]

I think it's a much safer pick than some of the other HS arms out there, but the more I've seen of him since, I do like him. It was well stated to say he looks like he could be a Joe Blanton type, it's not a bad comparison in the point being he looks to be a solid starter, not necessarily an all-star (as presently scouted) but a good bet to reach his ceiling, much like we were saying with Green. My argument has much more to do with not liking Green than loving Hobby, but I think he ends up a solid workhorse, and the rumblings I've heard have him working on a cutter, and he's got a different kind of grip on his change that is supposed to really help things. I really want to see him this upcoming season because it seems like JJ and company had a plan in mind when they drafted him, work is already under way and I'd like to see where they are going with it.

I kind of think of Hobgood as Brandon Workman without going to college, and I think if workman had come out last season he may have gone higher than he's being looked at right now.

Keep in mind through all of this that I would have drafted both Matzek and Wheeler over Hobby, but I would have taken all 3 over Green. Grant has had 3 not-so special seasons at USC, and then one good summer in the Cape. I think all of the hype was built around that one summer and I just don't buy it. I know I mentioned Tulo, but I should have clarified, I don't think he becomes ANYWHERE near him, I had used him when Green was coming out of the Cape season, but after seeing him last year I saw a lot more Bobby Crosby than Tulo.

I assume you mean you went back to old video and tht is what made you like him more, unless you were down in Bluefield for his less than eye-popping outings. I sort of understand what you are saying about Green, but aside from him leaking a bit (hips shifting towards 3B dugout entering weight transfer) I don't see much wrong with his mechanics. The biggest issue, to me, was simply hitting bad balls. He generates good bat speed and there is definitely pop there -- who know how much ultimately develops.

Regarding his not-so-special seasons, I guess I just disagree. These were his lines:

FR - .316/.388/.491

SO - .390/.438/.644

JR - .374/.441/.569

He hit for a lower average as a junior and increased his OBP. Again, the thing that jumps out is the drop in power, which looked to me in practice to be hitting bad balls rather than pitches he could drive. Now, that's not to say that commanding the strikezone isn't important. But he has a history of making hard contact with metal and wood -- last year he didn't do it. I saw him in March, April and May, and he looked good and bad throughout. I don't know if the hype caused him to push too much (I'm actually of the school that a red flag goes along with "pushing", though it doesn't kill their value for me).

In the field, he had good range and I saw him make one of the better plays of the year against UCLA. Hard grounder to the hole that hit off the 3B, Green stopped on a dime, dove to catch the ball redirected in the opposite direction and threw the guy out off balance (good arm strength). He isn't Tulo, but defensively who is? He had issues with throws and setting himself up, but that fits some with his schizo season. There are certainly performance-related questions, but the body and actions sure look impressive. Just my opinion, and I have no issue with disagreement.

[allstar1579]

I assume you mean you went back to old video and tht is what made you like him more, unless you were down in Bluefield for his less than eye-popping outings. I sort of understand what you are saying about Green, but aside from him leaking a bit (hips shifting towards 3B dugout entering weight transfer) I don't see much wrong with his mechanics. The biggest issue, to me, was simply hitting bad balls. He generates good bat speed and there is definitely pop there -- who know how much ultimately develops.

Regarding his not-so-special seasons, I guess I just disagree. These were his lines:

FR - .316/.388/.491

SO - .390/.438/.644

JR - .374/.441/.569

He hit for a lower average as a junior and increased his OBP. Again, the thing that jumps out is the drop in power, which looked to me in practice to be hitting bad balls rather than pitches he could drive. Now, that's not to say that commanding the strikezone isn't important. But he has a history of making hard contact with metal and wood -- last year he didn't do it. I saw him in March, April and May, and he looked good and bad throughout. I don't know if the hype caused him to push too much (I'm actually of the school that a red flag goes along with "pushing", though it doesn't kill their value for me).

In the field, he had good range and I saw him make one of the better plays of the year against UCLA. Hard grounder to the hole that hit off the 3B, Green stopped on a dime, dove to catch the ball redirected in the opposite direction and threw the guy out off balance (good arm strength). He isn't Tulo, but defensively who is? He had issues with throws and setting himself up, but that fits some with his schizo season. There are certainly performance-related questions, but the body and actions sure look impressive. Just my opinion, and I have no issue with disagreement.

Some video of him in a BP session at CY in June, and some older video for comparison, I'm not making that trip to WV unless I'm getting paid

I think the problems I have with Green are more mental than physical, if you remember I was one sticking up for Green when the tide turned on him last year, but like you said, suddenly swinging at bad pitches for whatever reason isn't a good sign for me. I always said he should be good enough to play average defense in the ML at SS, but a guy that regresses when the money is on the line so to speak is something to keep an eye on.

Maybe it was a nagging injury that he didn't want to admit to, maybe it was the pressure of being a top prospect, whatever the issue going up and down like he did in 3 seasons worries me. I like his ability to hit for average, I don't like his power to translate at the higher levels mostly because I think he sees a steady diet of outside offspeed stuff once the book gets out on him, and I don't know that he can drive the stuff out there. I haven't seen him live or as much as you have, but I thought he was drifting towards 3rd a bit in his swing, which would give him power middle/in but on the outside black he'd be a slap hitter. I don't know how long his swing is and if he can even hit those, but by the contact numbers I'm going to guess he didn't hit .290 without being able to slap some balls the other way.

I guess when I say "not so special" I was focusing more on his power output as that seems to be what most people tie his success to.

Curious question...who would you take between G. Beckham, Green and Colon?

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not sure how I see "workhorse" or "Joe Blanton-type" as a higher upside than Green, whose upside is, at a minimum starting MLB SS w/ average defense and an above-average bat.

Obviously, there's a risk that he won't stick at SS, but that shouldn't effect an estimate of his upside.

[allstar1579]

I'm not sure how I see "workhorse" or "Joe Blanton-type" as a higher upside than Green, whose upside is, at a minimum starting MLB SS w/ average defense and an above-average bat.

Obviously, there's a risk that he won't stick at SS, but that shouldn't effect an estimate of his upside.

Can you really say there is an upside as a minimum? Upside should be the maximum. I think there is a good chance he stalls out and becomes a UTL guy at best. That's just me though and I could easily be wrong.

I just think between the two Hobgood has the better chance of becoming a solid ML regular, as if for no other reason there are 5 SP on every team, and only 1 SS.

[Sports Guy]

Just because the draft was really weak in college hitters doesn't mean that that all of a sudden makes Green a better hitter. Green is going to be a low on base guy who's going to strike out a bit. He has some power potential but the only place he's ever really displayed it was on the Cape. He hit a total of 15 homers in 3 full seasons at SC. He's a career 32 SB/16 CS in college so he doesn't look to be any stolen base threat. Even if he stays at SS, the odds on him being a being a good hitter are not good, IMO. I wouldn't have cried if we had picked him but I never liked what his college stats showed. The video I saw of him this year showed a batter with serious problems though I'm sure it is correctable. This was a weak draft. Jordan rolled the dice on a pitcher with #1 or #2 starter potential (according to the scouts).

Anyway, you called him an established college bat. I questioned that description and instead of answering it, you went off on some tangent.

First of all, who cares how many homers he hit? What a worthless stat to bring up.

Secondly, if you want to look at potential power, which is usually the last thing to come, look at his extra base hits in college. He had 83 XBH in what basically amounts to a full season worth of ML at bats in his 3 college seasons.

Now, I don't like the higher K numbers from Green but his average in the last 2 college seasons are very nice but a high BA in college isn't exactly rare.

I think the power potential is there and he has good size which he can probably build on some with the proper training.

I think Green could be a 750-825 OPS type guy...If he can play above average defense, maybe he is JJ Hardy.

I would rather have that ceiling, which could help us within 2 years, then the Scott Erickson ceiling that may be 5 years away.

But I can see why others would go the other way too.

[Stotle]

Some video of him in a BP session at CY in June, and some older video for comparison, I'm not making that trip to WV unless I'm getting paid

I think the problems I have with Green are more mental than physical, if you remember I was one sticking up for Green when the tide turned on him last year, but like you said, suddenly swinging at bad pitches for whatever reason isn't a good sign for me. I always said he should be good enough to play average defense in the ML at SS, but a guy that regresses when the money is on the line so to speak is something to keep an eye on.

Maybe it was a nagging injury that he didn't want to admit to, maybe it was the pressure of being a top prospect, whatever the issue going up and down like he did in 3 seasons worries me. I like his ability to hit for average, I don't like his power to translate at the higher levels mostly because I think he sees a steady diet of outside offspeed stuff once the book gets out on him, and I don't know that he can drive the stuff out there. I haven't seen him live or as much as you have, but I thought he was drifting towards 3rd a bit in his swing, which would give him power middle/in but on the outside black he'd be a slap hitter. I don't know how long his swing is and if he can even hit those, but by the contact numbers I'm going to guess he didn't hit .290 without being able to slap some balls the other way.

I guess when I say "not so special" I was focusing more on his power output as that seems to be what most people tie his success to.

Curious question...who would you take between G. Beckham, Green and Colon?

Well, Beckham because I have the benefit of seeing that his bat speed was enough to outweigh the arm bar. I don't think he'll necessarily hit for a high average, but he's already reached the majors and had some success there. I don't think he's a particularly good defensive SS, but he should be a solid ML regular.

Colon is a ML 2B to me -- I don't think the range plays at SS. He'd likely fit in third, though I like his approach and strikezone command. Great hands and clean around the bag. Isn't a stretch that he could stick at SS, either -- I just like him a little better at 2B right now.

Green has the highest ceiling of the two, for me. I don't think he'll hit for a great average, but could be a .285-.300 hitter and if he figures out which pitches to drive could be a legit 20 HR bat. That offensive potential out of SS is more valuable to me than the other two, but at this point Beckham is a sure fire ML regular, which I take over two unknowns.

[allstar1579]

Well, Beckham because I have the benefit of seeing that his bat speed was enough to outweigh the arm bar. I don't think he'll necessarily hit for a high average, but he's already reached the majors and had some success there. I don't think he's a particularly good defensive SS, but he should be a solid ML regular.

Colon is a ML 2B to me -- I don't think the range plays at SS. He'd likely fit in third, though I like his approach and strikezone command. Great hands and clean around the bag. Isn't a stretch that he could stick at SS, either -- I just like him a little better at 2B right now.

Green has the highest ceiling of the two, for me. I don't think he'll hit for a great average, but could be a .285-.300 hitter and if he figures out which pitches to drive could be a legit 20 HR bat. That offensive potential out of SS is more valuable to me than the other two, but at this point Beckham is a sure fire ML regular, which I take over two unknowns.

Fair enough. I've just been debating that one myself for a couple days, I compared Beckham with Green for a while last year.

How do you like Green's chances at 2nd? I don't see 3rd working for him personally but that's because I don't see him more than 5-7 HR but if you see 20 potential then he might work for you there.

[Stotle]

Fair enough. I've just been debating that one myself for a couple days, I compared Beckham with Green for a while last year.

How do you like Green's chances at 2nd? I don't see 3rd working for him personally but that's because I don't see him more than 5-7 HR but if you see 20 potential then he might work for you there.

I think he's a little big for second. If forced to shift from SS I think it will be because he grows out of it, and I can't see him having quick enough feet to stick as a ML 2B. If he's only producing 5-7 HR, I don't think it will matter anyway. I can't see him as a ML regular with that kind of production. Orlando Hudson is a pretty impressive glove at 2B and he still got up into the double-digits during his prime years. Green would have to be a pretty advanced defender at short (in my opinion) to have enough value to stick as a bottom of the order bat.

Regarding Green/Beckham, they are different players to me. Beckham was very workman-like in the field and borderline stiff. He made a lot of impressive plays charging, but was limited in his range up-the-middle and was most impressive in the hole on choppers, rather than balls he had to go down to and then plant or throw across his body. At the plate, Beckham was a bat speed guy whose game was really power. He looked for balls to drive out. Green had a bit more balanced approach to my eye, looking more to hit where pitched. I think part of his issue his junior year was that he was trying to jerk the ball a little too often, rather than just driving what he was given. Just thoughts...

[allstar1579]

I think he's a little big for second. If forced to shift from SS I think it will be because he grows out of it, and I can't see him having quick enough feet to stick as a ML 2B. If he's only producing 5-7 HR, I don't think it will matter anyway. I can't see him as a ML regular with that kind of production. Orlando Hudson is a pretty impressive glove at 2B and he still got up into the double-digits during his prime years. Green would have to be a pretty advanced defender at short (in my opinion) to have enough value to stick as a bottom of the order bat.

Regarding Green/Beckham, they are different players to me. Beckham was very workman-like in the field and borderline stiff. He made a lot of impressive plays charging, but was limited in his range up-the-middle and was most impressive in the hole on choppers, rather than balls he had to go down to and then plant or throw across his body. At the plate, Beckham was a bat speed guy whose game was really power. He looked for balls to drive out. Green had a bit more balanced approach to my eye, looking more to hit where pitched. I think part of his issue his junior year was that he was trying to jerk the ball a little too often, rather than just driving what he was given. Just thoughts...

That's cool, just asking. I didn't see too much of Beckham in the field, so I didn't know entirely what to expect out of him. I did watch a lot of batting footage though, so I totally get what you mean about the different approaches. Like I said earlier though I think in the end people learn to pitch Green on the outside and either he learns to be a slap hitter that capitalizes on mistakes, or he tries to pull too much that he can't reach and you see more seasons like last season. Thanks for all the input, appreciate it.