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Mlbtraderumors.com predicts Delgado to the O's

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted
1. There is a potential of course, but Holliday is more proven than our core. None of those players you have listed profile as a #4 hitter. Holliday has filled that spot successfully, on playoff teams.

I think the downside is looking at what he did in Oakland, but even there he had an .860+ OPS as a #4 hitter and the one poor month in April kind of skews his performance as an Athletic. So while he may be overpaid, you still have an .850+ OPS in the cleanup spot. That's not much of a downside if you ask me. It's not like the guy is going to turn into Vernon Wells IMO. As I've said I think he'll be worth about 25 WAR during his 6 year contract.

2.

Roberts - 625 AB (.775-.825)

Markakis - 625 AB (.800-.900)

Wieters - 550 AB (.750-.850)

Jones - 600 AB (.750-.850)

Reimold - 525 AB (.775 -.850)

Pie - 300 AB (.725-.775)

Weighted avg low side: .766 OPS

Weighted avg high side: .842 OPS

Mean: .804 OPS

Given those #'s I'd say the most likely scenario without good (premium) offensive support is on the low side .775-.790 OPS

He's been worth 20 WAR his first 6 years. I doubt he exceeds this during the next 6, which will include at least 3 years of decline.

EDIT: My apologies to Matt he was 29 WAR his first 6 seasons. Still don't think he does 20 WAR the next 6.

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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

Posted
Posted
1. There is a potential of course, but Holliday is more proven than our core. None of those players you have listed profile as a #4 hitter. Holliday has filled that spot successfully, on playoff teams.

I think the downside is looking at what he did in Oakland, but even there he had an .860+ OPS as a #4 hitter and the one poor month in April kind of skews his performance as an Athletic. So while he may be overpaid, you still have an .850+ OPS in the cleanup spot. That's not much of a downside if you ask me. It's not like the guy is going to turn into Vernon Wells IMO. As I've said I think he'll be worth about 25 WAR during his 6 year contract.

2.

Roberts - 625 AB (.775-.825)

Markakis - 625 AB (.800-.900)

Wieters - 550 AB (.750-.850)

Jones - 600 AB (.750-.850)

Reimold - 525 AB (.775 -.850)

Pie - 300 AB (.725-.775)

Weighted avg low side: .766 OPS

Weighted avg high side: .842 OPS

Mean: .804 OPS

Given those #'s I'd say the most likely scenario without good (premium) offensive support is on the low side .775-.790 OPS

3 bottles of beer on the wall...(hiccup)....3 bottles of beer....(burp)...you take one down, pass it around :new_beer:...2 bottles of beer on the wall. :puke:

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
1. There is a potential of course, but Holliday is more proven than our core. None of those players you have listed profile as a #4 hitter. Holliday has filled that spot successfully, on playoff teams.

I think the downside is looking at what he did in Oakland, but even there he had an .860+ OPS as a #4 hitter and the one poor month in April kind of skews his performance as an Athletic. So while he may be overpaid, you still have an .850+ OPS in the cleanup spot. That's not much of a downside if you ask me. It's not like the guy is going to turn into Vernon Wells IMO. As I've said I think he'll be worth about 25 WAR during his 6 year contract.

2.

Roberts - 625 AB (.775-.825)

Markakis - 625 AB (.800-.900)

Wieters - 550 AB (.750-.850)

Jones - 600 AB (.750-.850)

Reimold - 525 AB (.775 -.850)

Pie - 300 AB (.725-.775)

Weighted avg low side: .766 OPS

Weighted avg high side: .842 OPS

Mean: .804 OPS

Given those #'s I'd say the most likely scenario without good (premium) offensive support is on the low side .775-.790 OPS

So, without any of these guys being hurt or anything like that and with almost all of them being young and likely improving, you have dropped your prediction for them 30-40 points.

Why have you done this? Is it because you need to make that look worse to justify your poor argument about why we need a bat right now?

Seems to me that is what it is. Hard to believe that you feel there is a drop like that for anything other than your little agenda.

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ejf1025 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ejf1025

Posted
Posted
So, without any of these guys being hurt or anything like that and with almost all of them being young and likely improving, you have dropped your prediction for them 30-40 points.

Why have you done this? Is it because you need to make that look worse to justify your poor argument about why we need a bat right now?

Seems to me that is what it is. Hard to believe that you feel there is a drop like that for anything other than your little agenda.

Yes...it's actually astonishing to see.

I don't know when he made that original prediction, but there has been no baseball played to justify this shift.

Clearly, he has been backed into a corner that his circular logic won't get him out of...so why not just change one part of your argument completely in order to suit another.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

Posted
Posted
So, without any of these guys being hurt or anything like that and with almost all of them being young and likely improving, you have dropped your prediction for them 30-40 points.

Why have you done this? Is it because you need to make that look worse to justify your poor argument about why we need a bat right now?

Seems to me that is what it is. Hard to believe that you feel there is a drop like that for anything other than your little agenda.

:laughlol:

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
1. There is a potential of course, but Holliday is more proven than our core. None of those players you have listed profile as a #4 hitter. Holliday has filled that spot successfully, on playoff teams.

I think the downside is looking at what he did in Oakland, but even there he had an .860+ OPS as a #4 hitter and the one poor month in April kind of skews his performance as an Athletic. So while he may be overpaid, you still have an .850+ OPS in the cleanup spot. That's not much of a downside if you ask me. It's not like the guy is going to turn into Vernon Wells IMO. As I've said I think he'll be worth about 25 WAR during his 6 year contract.

Is there anything backing up YO other than YANFAPPRN (your aching need for a premium player right now)?

Look at Holliday's admittedly imprecise BR comps through age 28:

1) Wally Berger. Last good year at 30.

2) Berkman

3) Magglio Ordonez. Worth $15M-$20M once or twice since he turned 30.

4) Chick Hafey. Fell off the planet at 30.

5) Dave Parker. .800 OPS twice after turning 30.

6) Fred Lynn. Poster boy for O's decline in mid 80s.

7) Larry Walker.

8) Tim Salmon. Last premium year at 31.

9) Bobby Abreu.

10) Mike Sweeney. Last premium year at 28.

No, that's no guarantee of failure. But seems that most players fall apart in their early to mid 30s. Walker might be the only guy on that list worth a 6/120 deal signed on his 30th birthday. Some of them wouldn't have been worth a 2/20 contract.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted
3 bottles of beer on the wall...(hiccup)....3 bottles of beer....(burp)...you take one down, pass it around :new_beer:...2 bottles of beer on the wall. :puke:
When you se the P word you:new_beer: when I see it I have to :puke: Oh well at least I'm losing weight.:laughlol:
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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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Posted
So, without any of these guys being hurt or anything like that and with almost all of them being young and likely improving, you have dropped your prediction for them 30-40 points.

Why have you done this? Is it because you need to make that look worse to justify your poor argument about why we need a bat right now?

Seems to me that is what it is. Hard to believe that you feel there is a drop like that for anything other than your little agenda.

No it's because I'm skeptical of these young guys being able to swim by themselves when thrown into the deep end...

Markakis has already struggled when he was made the primary offensive force. Ditto for Jones. Delgado by himself won't take much of that burden away from them IMO. Reimold will be coming off of surgery and always seems to have some sort of nagging injury and he's basically a RH Luke Scott that is prone to extended cold streaks. Pie is a huge WC because of his August that looks like an outlier than a trend at this point.

Carlos Delgado isn't much of a flotation device to help these guys IMO...

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
No it's because I'm skeptical of these young guys being able to swim by themselves when thrown into the deep end...

Markakis has already struggled when he was made the primary offensive force. Ditto for Jones. Delgado by himself won't take much of that burden away from them IMO. Reimold will be coming off of surgery and always seems to have some sort of nagging injury and he's basically a RH Luke Scott that is prone to extended cold streaks. Pie is a huge WC because of his August that looks like an outlier than a trend at this point.

Carlos Delgado isn't much of a flotation device to help these guys IMO...

What's the difference between Delgado and the 2008 Rays' expensive premium flotation device, Cliff Floyd?

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