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Baseball Prospectus's Top 11


wickedwitch

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Five-Star Prospects

1. Brian Matusz, LHP

Four-Star Prospects

2. Josh Bell, 3B

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP

4. Zach Britton, LHP

Three-Star Prospects

5. Matt Hobgood, RHP

6. Brandon Erbe, RHP

7. Brandon Synder, 1B

8. Mychal Givens, SS

9. Caleb Joseph, C

Two-Star Prospects

10. Brandon Waring, 1B/3B

11. Cameron Coffey, RHP

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9752

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12. Steve Johnson

13. Kam Mickolio

14. Troy Patton

15. Michael Ohlman

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Adam Jones, CF

3. Chris Tillman, RHP

4. Brian Matusz, LHP

5. Felix Pie, OF

6. Josh Bell, 3B

7. Jake Arrieta, RHP

8. Zach Britton, LHP

9. Matt Hobgood, RHP

10. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Summary: The Orioles’ system is no longer elite, but it's for all of the right reasons, as they've graduated the type of talent to the big leagues that could potentially change the direction of the franchise. As a snapshot in time, however, it is an average system at best that is highly unbalanced in favor of pitching.

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Pretty good validation of Tony's list here. I'm glad to see Tony's not the only one ranking Coffey pretty high.

I'm not sure I agree that Bell is a 4-star prospect. Or another way to put it: I think Bell and Snyder belong in the same category.

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Summary: The Orioles’ system is no longer elite, but it's for all of the right reasons, as they've graduated the type of talent to the big leagues that could potentially change the direction of the franchise. As a snapshot in time, however, it is an average system at best that is highly unbalanced in favor of pitching.

I like this summary. The decline in the ranking of our system relative to the other teams is due to graduating players more so than our top prospects not fulfilling their potential.

Two more drafts with spend over $9M will put us back inside the top 10, IMO.

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Pretty good validation of Tony's list here. I'm glad to see Tony's not the only one ranking Coffey pretty high.

I'm not sure I agree that Bell is a 4-star prospect. Or another way to put it: I think Bell and Snyder belong in the same category.

I wonder if you have this right. Is this a sort of validation of Tony's list, or are the BP folks actually considering Tony one of the foremost experts on the O's, and actually taking some of their lead from him?

I can't imagine that any O's list aside from an internal one created by the likes of McPhail and Stockstill would have any more validity than what Tony puts together. I'm sure that some non-Oriole somewhere could be more in the know, but I'm not aware of that person and I haven't seen their list.

I bet BP, BA and others take their lead from this board, to some extent anyway.

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I like this summary. The decline in the ranking of our system relative to the other teams is due to graduating players more so than our top prospects not fulfilling their potential.

Two more drafts with spend over $9M will put us back inside the top 10, IMO.

I would love to have 2 more drafts of us spending a total of $18 mil, but thats not necessary for us to be top 10 again. We just need for the guys we drafted this year to get some PT and step up like many of them should. We have the talent in the system as we speak to become a top 10 system, but of course 2 more years of the same will solidify the idea. But we have several guys who could jump to the top of the list almost immedietely(Coffey, Ohlman, Bundy, Beal, Wirsch, Henry, Tolliver, Cowan, Hobgood, Martin, Avery, Hoes) Any of these guys could break out next year and have such good skillsets that they could become top prospects. At this point, we are just waiting for some of them to break out, so all we have to look at is a bunch of depth and breakout candidates......

And I agree, both SNyder and Bell belong in the same category, and judging by Snyder's approach that I saw in the AFL Rising Stars game, he could end up better than Bell....

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12. Steve Johnson

13. Kam Mickolio

14. Troy Patton

15. Michael Ohlman

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Adam Jones, CF

3. Chris Tillman, RHP

4. Brian Matusz, LHP

5. Felix Pie, OF

6. Josh Bell, 3B

7. Jake Arrieta, RHP

8. Zach Britton, LHP

9. Matt Hobgood, RHP

10. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Summary: The Orioles’ system is no longer elite, but it's for all of the right reasons, as they've graduated the type of talent to the big leagues that could potentially change the direction of the franchise. As a snapshot in time, however, it is an average system at best that is highly unbalanced in favor of pitching.

Re: Pie...really?

This makes me want to start a thread in the Orioles forum. I think I will.

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Good stuff on Britton:

4. Zach Britton, LHP

DOB: 12/22/87

Height/Weight: 6-2/172

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 3rd round, 2006, Weatherford HS (TX)

2009 Stats: 2.70 (140.0-123-55-131) at High-A (25 G)

Last Year’s Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: The unheralded lefty continued to put up big numbers while earning glowing scouting reports.

The Good: Britton's sinker is among the best in all of the minor leagues. Sitting at 89-92 mph, it features a powerful dropping action that led to a 3.4-to-one ratio of ground-balls to flies that improved to a remarkable 4.8 ratio in 12 starts after the All-Star break. He can dial the pitch up to 95 mph when he's willing to sacrifice movement, while he has a solid slider to add a horizontal aspect to his game. He's long and loose, with clean mechanics and an easy, repeatable delivery.

The Bad: Britton's changeup is still a work in progress, and it’s no more than a show-me pitch at this time. He has occasional trouble controlling his pitches, as he likes to work down in the zone, leading the sinker to end up too low. He'll need to mix his pitches more as he moves up the ladder.

Ephemera: Weatherford, Texas is known as the Peach Capital of Texas, and is home of the annual Parker County Peach Festival every July. Britton's ERA in July 2009 was 4.05, his highest single mark during the year. Homesickness? You make the call.

Perfect World Projection: Britton draws some wide-ranging views from scouts, as there were some who felt he should be three spots higher or lower than this ranking. There are many who think he has true star potential.

Path to the Big Leagues: By the time he's ready, the Orioles should already have a solid rotation, so his arrival should coincide with much less pressure on him than what's being experienced by the current crop of young arms.

Timetable: Britton will begin 2010 in Double-A, and probably won’t see Baltimore until 2011.

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As a snapshot in time, however, it is an average system at best that is highly unbalanced in favor of pitching.

AM would say this is by design. So I don't feel too bad about this as long as we're trading for the bats we need.

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Good stuff on Britton:

Very good stuff. We need to follow him closely to see if that changeup will come around this year. If he can make that an average pitch, he has no reason to not be atleast a mid rotation guy. I am very happy to hear that he keeps the ball low. This is the biggest problem with our nonsinker ball pitchers.

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Pretty good validation of Tony's list here. I'm glad to see Tony's not the only one ranking Coffey pretty high.

I'm not sure I agree that Bell is a 4-star prospect. Or another way to put it: I think Bell and Snyder belong in the same category.

Not to mention having him ranked ahead of Arrieta and Britton.

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12. Steve Johnson

13. Kam Mickolio

14. Troy Patton

15. Michael Ohlman

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Adam Jones, CF

3. Chris Tillman, RHP

4. Brian Matusz, LHP

5. Felix Pie, OF

6. Josh Bell, 3B

7. Jake Arrieta, RHP

8. Zach Britton, LHP

9. Matt Hobgood, RHP

10. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Summary: The Orioles’ system is no longer elite, but it's for all of the right reasons, as they've graduated the type of talent to the big leagues that could potentially change the direction of the franchise. As a snapshot in time, however, it is an average system at best that is highly unbalanced in favor of pitching.

It makes me feel better that they have Tillman ahead of Tusz, since it seemed as though many people (including me) no longer had great expectations for Tillman. Matusz is such a sure thing that having 3 guys ahead of him is a pickmeup.

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It makes me feel better that they have Tillman ahead of Tusz, since it seemed as though many people (including me) no longer had great expectations for Tillman. Matusz is such a sure thing that having 3 guys ahead of him is a pickmeup.

Tillman's prospect status is much different than Matusz. Matusz's is as hgih as it is based off of the pitcher that he already is, Tillman's is based off of how good he is now, and the fact that he is expected to continue get much better. With Matusz, basically what you see is what you get(he will accomplish some minor refinement) but what we see with Tillman now won't look the same next year and the year after that. He is turning into a Greinke-like pitcher, but is younger and behind Matusz developmentally, so you don't see it as a finished product yet, but when it is a finished product, it sure will be pretty.

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