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Who would you trade for... Uggla/Cantu?


amateurfan

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Uggla is no Holiday though. He's not considered top tier talent that many teams will go after (hence why only 2 seem to want him now) and in the Oakland example, Beane took a risk because he thought if things break right his team could contend during the one year he had Holiday.

That's not true for us. We will not contend in 2010 so the risk in acquiring him to flip is greater.

Finally, the move backfired on Beane. He gave up more to get Holiday than he got in return -- though I suppose this point could be debated.

If it doesn't cost us much of a prospect than I'm ok to get him but I expect in the real world we'd have to give up a decent/good prospect and banking on the fact that we'd get just as good a player back in trade down the road is a risk. I'm not even sure it is debateable.

I don't know, I think a two time All Star would be considered a pretty high level player. BTW didn't Beane get St. Louis' top third base prospect in the Holiday deal?

Have you looked at Uggla's numbers over the past several years. I think you are undervaluing him.

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Roch is saying "that a young second-line starting pitcher might get it done, someone who doesn't have to be major league ready in 2010. The Marlins' minor league pitching is pretty thin. The outfield and bullpen also are areas that could be addressed."

Who would qualify as a second line starting pitcher?

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No chance am I trading Arrieta straight up for him.

I would move Erbe or DH and another player for him.

AM has said he wouldn't move any core players for a bat...Maybe he thinks he can get Uggla for less than core players?

I think this a reasonable deal and one that is consistent with what we are hearing from Roch.

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Roch is saying "that a young second-line starting pitcher might get it done, someone who doesn't have to be major league ready in 2010. The Marlins' minor league pitching is pretty thin. The outfield and bullpen also are areas that could be addressed."

Who would qualify as a second line starting pitcher?

Erbe? I'm not sure what "second-line" means.

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I think you can say the same about Cantu, though Cantu lacks the double-chin and beer-belly look that Wiggy sports.

Someone needs to explain to me why Cantu would not be a good option for a 1B/3B stop gap. He hits for some power and has been a better hitter against lefties than Uggla.

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Roch is saying "that a young second-line starting pitcher might get it done, someone who doesn't have to be major league ready in 2010. The Marlins' minor league pitching is pretty thin. The outfield and bullpen also are areas that could be addressed."

Who would qualify as a second line starting pitcher?

Steve Johnson?

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I'm not sure I understand the formula you're using. We would basically be getting a +10M in production over two years(Production value minus salary). Wouldn't it be easy to assume that Snyder or Arrieta alone would give the Marlins +10M in production over the 6-7 years they'll be there. Also, I think we would have him for 3 years, not 2.

Uggla may have three years of arbitration left. I thought it was 2.

Your assumption is that Snyder and Arrieta can be MLB starters. That is a sizable assumption. The method I used was one where the basic worth of a player falling in a certain range on a prospect list . . . how that relates to value.

Now, your +10MM comment is production over salary. Why would we divorce the two? There is a certain worth of the player's performance and then there is the worth of not paying him the true market value.

So a player would be worth actual worth + discount. So if Uggla was a 16MM player, he would be worth 16MM. If we only paid him 12MM . . . then he is actually worth 20MM. Only valuing him with the difference ignores his actual value.

For instance that would be saying that if Teixeira costs 24MM and puts up 24MM in worth . . . he should be free in a trade. That just is not the case.

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I wouldn't touch Uggla if any of those guys had to be in the package. I'd much rather go for a short term deal with a free agent.

Right and if the free agent market is depressed again . . . it would probably lower the asking price on Uggla as well.

He does have a league average bat and some decent peripherals at positions where offense is not the easiest to find.

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I like the idea of Uggla if we feel he can play a passable 3B defensively.

I definitely would not trade Arrieta or Britton for him. Erbe I'd be hesitant as well. If I'd trade for him would depend on what the offer needs to be. I do like him as a 3B for 2010 and then a DH in 2011 if Bell takes over the 3B job. Might not be the best fielder, but he'll give us some much-needed power.

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Uggla may have three years of arbitration left. I thought it was 2.

Your assumption is that Snyder and Arrieta can be MLB starters. That is a sizable assumption. The method I used was one where the basic worth of a player falling in a certain range on a prospect list . . . how that relates to value.

Now, your +10MM comment is production over salary. Why would we divorce the two? There is a certain worth of the player's performance and then there is the worth of not paying him the true market value.

So a player would be worth actual worth + discount. So if Uggla was a 16MM player, he would be worth 16MM. If we only paid him 12MM . . . then he is actually worth 20MM. Only valuing him with the difference ignores his actual value.

For instance that would be saying that if Teixeira costs 24MM and puts up 24MM in worth . . . he should be free in a trade. That just is not the case.

So, couldn't you say that this formula isn't very practical?

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Some people are really reaching here with offers equivalent to bags of poo. Packages headlined by Steve Johnson or Jason Berken aren't getting it done.

Erbe or Hernandez plus another player is about the limit in terms of believability.

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Someone needs to explain to me why Cantu would not be a good option for a 1B/3B stop gap. He hits for some power and has been a better hitter against lefties than Uggla.

Uggla's more disciplined and will hit a few more homers, and he's got a better chance to eventually be a Type A free agent, but Cantu probably makes better contact, is a little younger, and looks more athletic. Uggla's a little better, but yeah - If you have to get 1 or the other and it's just for a 3B/1B stop gap, go for whichever one costs you less in prospects.

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So, couldn't you say that this formula isn't very practical?

I'm confused by what you mean.

If Tex is worth 30MM . . . and his salary is 24MM . . . then he is practically worth 36MM. 30MM for his performance and 6MM that could be spent elsewhere.

You seemed to suggest that the worth of a player in trade was equal only to the difference between worth and performance.

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I'm confused by what you mean.

If Tex is worth 30MM . . . and his salary is 24MM . . . then he is practically worth 36MM. 30MM for his performance and 6MM that could be spent elsewhere.

You seemed to suggest that the worth of a player in trade was equal only to the difference between worth and performance.

Right, my mistake. Also, just curious, how did you arrive at the value for Arrieta, Snyder, Britton etc.

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Uggla and or Cantu? Rosenthall says we're interested in Uggla but would a package for both Uggla and Cantu work? I realy like Uggla as a third base option and Cantu seems to have found himself in Florida. What do you think it would take?

Rosenthal also said that if the Marlins traded Uggla they would want to keep Cantu.

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