Do we overrate our pitching prospects' chances of success?

[jmmarvel]

Right, but the odds of getting 2 aces are higher with 4 cards. If you trade any cards away before you look at them, you have to hope you didn't trade your aces and keep the jokers.

Nice metaphor

[Orioles West]

Stotle brings up a good point...Why can't we be Oakland east?

No AL Pennants in the Beane era. I'd rather aim higher.

-Don

[Hank Scorpio]

Haynes vs. Tillman is a very intriguing comp other than Tillman being a year younger at his ML debut.

Tillman appears to have a slightly better K/9 ratio, but otherwise they appear to be similar MiL pitchers.

[33rdst]

Right, but the odds of getting 2 aces are higher with 4 cards. If you trade any cards away before you look at them, you have to hope you didn't trade your aces and keep the jokers.

This makes sense to me. Macphail has the very difficult job of trying improve the club while evaluating his young talent. It's a process.

While, in general, most pitchers will not pitch 162 innings/yr as Frobby says, I think the Orioles sample is skewed toward success since they were were all selected from the top of the talent pool. PLus, their success in the minors supports the likelihood of success in the majors.

[ShaneDawg85]

No AL Pennants in the Beane era. I'd rather aim higher.

-Don

Zero playoff appearances in Baltimore since 1997. I definitely want to aim MUCH higher. I'll take multiple division titles and playoff appearances, and yes, failing to get beyond that, over not getting anywhere near there at all.

[brooksie05]

I'd be pleased with Tillman taking the ball every 5th day and posting an ERA below 5.00 in 2010. I'm hoping for better than that, but I think it may take a year or two before we see Tillman really break out. In the meantime, I'm just hoping for a solid, healthy pitcher.

Any chance we start Tillman in Triple A?

[Mackus]

Any chance we start Tillman in Triple A?

Zero chance unless he gets hurt.

[hoosiers]

Our top four pitchers are not a random grouping and should not be treated as a normal group of four young pitching prospect - other than perhaps a normal attrition rate. One must also acknowledge that our top 3 were in the BA Top 80 entering last season meaning that the lowest of the group - Arrieta might have been the best pitching prospect in several organizations in baseball.

Tillman and Matusz were rated among BA's Top 10 prospects at mid-season. So, all of the guys may not pan out, but, relatively speaking, we are far, far ahead of the vast majority of other organizations in their accumulated young pitching talent. It's only appropriate to have well-above average expectations for these four well-above average pitching prospects, IMO.

Further, we have both a strength in numbers as well as in quality. It's why we are now so excited about the development of Brad Bergesen as opposed to a year ago. And it appears this last draft will produce several arms worth getting excited about.

[Orioles West]

Zero playoff appearances in Baltimore since 1997. I definitely want to aim MUCH higher. I'll take multiple division titles and playoff appearances, and yes, failing to get beyond that, over not getting anywhere near there at all.

I don't think there are any magic bullets in any approach, but the stockpiling of young pitchers as we are currently seems like a really good start.

That said the A's have hovered far closer to Oriole level since they were swept in the ALCS in 2006 than playoff contender.

-Don

[Frobby]

No AL Pennants in the Beane era. I'd rather aim higher.

-Don

I'm very reluctant to judge a team's GM by post-season success. Sometimes, in a short series, the breaks just don't go your way.

If I'm going to criticize Beane, I'd rather point out that he has now had three consecutive losing seasons.

[Mackus]

I don't think there are any magic bullets in any approach, but the stockpiling of young pitchers as we are currently seems like a really good start.

That said the A's have hovered far closer to Oriole level since they were swept in the ALCS in 2006 than playoff contender.

-Don

Winning or losing in the playoffs is more of a function of who's hot late in the season, who's healthy, and just plain who gets the lucky breaks over a very short stretch than it is a function of your overall blueprint for success.

If you have a plan that can build your team into a consistent playoff contender, then you have a plan that can win you a World Series. You've just gotta get a bit lucky to win the Series on top of all the hard work of making the playoffs. Obviously the more playoff appearances you make, the better chances you have of getting that title or, if you're really lucky, titles.

You wouldn't say the Braves of the 90s were a poor model because they only won one title, would you?

[Tx Oriole]

We absolutely overrate our young pitching's chances IMO.

It's funny how everybody suddenly forgets about Hayden Penn, Garrett Olson, Daniel Cabrera and on and on...

These guys are not guaranteed to succeed.

I think Matusz has the best chance, followed by Britton because of his groundball tendencies, but Arrieta is a huge question mark if he'll stick in the rotation or have to move to the bullpen.

Tillman I think could be a TOR in another division and another park, particulary one like Comerica or PETCO which is more flyball pitcher friendly. OPACY is very unforgiving to flyball pitchers, as is Yankee Stadium, so there's two AL East parks Tillman is already at a disadvantage in. I think he'll only be a #3-4 starter in the AL East because of this.

Nor are they guaranteed to fail either.

[RShack]

Winning or losing in the playoffs is more of a function of who's hot late in the season, who's healthy, and just plain who gets the lucky breaks over a very short stretch than it is a function of your overall blueprint for success.

If you have a plan that can build your team into a consistent playoff contender, then you have a plan that can win you a World Series. You've just gotta get a bit lucky to win the Series on top of all the hard work of making the playoffs. Obviously the more playoff appearances you make, the better chances you have of getting that title or, if you're really lucky, titles.

People keep saying this, but I don't buy it. Getting bounced in the 1st round isn't always just luck. Just because it's a small sample of games doesn't mean the results are about luck.

You wouldn't say the Braves of the 90s were a poor model because they only won one title, would you?

Of course it wasn't a poor model, they had great sustained success.

At the same time, they were built for 162 games, not 7, and it showed.

[Mackus]

People keep saying this, but I don't buy it. Getting bounced in the 1st round isn't always just luck. Just because it's a small sample of games doesn't mean the results are about luck.

Of course it wasn't a poor model, they had great sustained success.

At the same time, they were built for 162 games, not 7, and it showed.

Find where I said it was purely luck.

How were they built for 162 and not for 7? Either the Braves or the Athletics. What's the one thing everyone wants the most in a short series? Did the Braves and A's have it?

[mweb]

People keep saying this, but I don't buy it. Getting bounced in the 1st round isn't always just luck. Just because it's a small sample of games doesn't mean the results are about luck.

Of course it wasn't a poor model, they had great sustained success.

At the same time, they were built for 162 games, not 7, and it showed.

Isn't great pitching a big plus in the playoffs?