Schmuck: O's need a middle of the order bat

[Lucky Jim]

So basically you just say stuff and never have to back it up?:rolleyestf:

To be fair, it's easier to win an argument against an opponent you've made up wholesale.

[TGO]

To be fair, it's easier to win an argument against an opponent you've made up wholesale.

HEEEEEY GUYSSSSSS

[DrungoHazewood]

Frobby, you're a smart man. You know a lot about baseball. Nevertheless, I would ask you (and those who share your opinion) to rethink your stance on adding Jason Bay.

I think that Jason Bay is a perfect fit for this team. He would bring us a feared right-handed power hitter to bat fourth in our lineup. Just check out his major league numbers:

2007 - 21 HR, 84 RBI, .746 OPS

2008 - 31 HR, 101 RBI, .895 OPS

2009 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, .921 OPS

That is an amazing trend upward in his numbers from year to year. There is nobody who is either in our organization or who we are likely to get as a FA in 2010 who would fit our offensive needs better.

What are you worried about?

Moving Reimold to DH? That's no big deal (he might end up there anyway if his achilles tendon continues to be a problem).

The price? It's reported by the Boston Globe that he wants a five year $85M contract. I'd offer him a five year $90M contract in a heartbeat. He's 31 years old. Plug him in as the number 4 hitter and that's taken care of until 2014.

The O's wouldn't need to trade anyone to get him, He doesn't block our prospects at 1B and 3B, and he's worth it.

IMO, there's just no reason for the O's to wait for someone better to come along later - that is unless the O's are too pecuniary to ever compete in the AL East.

Don't you find it to be a little odd that you're proclaiming that a guy who's 31 and only two years removed from a .746 OPS season is going to be a solid cleanup hitter for each of the next five years, at $18M per, through his 36th birthday?

Aren't you a little concerned that he appears to be a poor defensive outfielder?

How is Bay $17M a year better than the 26-year-old Nolan Reimold? Or how is Bay in left and Reimold at DH $17M better than Pie in left and Reimold at DH? These resources can probably be used in a better fashion.

It's not usually smart to let the free agent market dictate how you build your team.

[ChesterPeake]

Don't you find it to be a little odd that you're proclaiming that a guy who's 31 and only two years removed from a .746 OPS season is going to be a solid cleanup hitter for each of the next five years, at $18M per, through his 36th birthday?

Aren't you a little concerned that he appears to be a poor defensive outfielder?

How is Bay $17M a year better than the 26-year-old Nolan Reimold? Or how is Bay in left and Reimold at DH $17M better than Pie in left and Reimold at DH? These resources can probably be used in a better fashion.

It's not usually smart to let the free agent market dictate how you build your team.

Name one Orioles player who you can reasonably project to ever come anywhere near the power numbers that Bay put up in 2008 and 2009. You reference his 2007 season but you ignore his more current 2008 and 2009 seasons and the fact that he has improved dramatically in each and every one of his major league seasons. That's a pretty weak argument on your part.

There are few players in baseball at any position that will ever put up the numbers Bay has put up. These type of players don't grow on trees. I don't think that the O's have the luxury of waiting to find the ideal fit (a player who plays the right position, is the right age, is a great hitter and defender, and who is bargain priced) as their cleanup hitter.

If you don't like Bay defensively, then move him to DH. Plenty of ML power hitters have continued to produce at age 36 so I would have no problem whatsoever signing him for 5 years. I really don't care what position he plays or how much he is paid because the O's can stiil get the other players they need to compete as long as Peter Angelos gets up off of his fat wallet and increases the payroll to a respectable level.

BTW, let's hope that the O's can develop a top power hitter from within their own organization because I think that Peter Angelos is too cheap to ever buy one, regardless of what the plan may be, according to AM.

The sad thing is that I think that O's fans have subconciously accepted having a second-tier team because they somehow think they should care about how much Angelos spends for players as much as he does. Personally, I don't give a rat's rear end how much Angelos has to spend to produce a winner. If it takes a $100M payroll to do so, that's fine with me.

[Lucky Jim]

Name one Orioles player who you can reasonably project to ever come anywhere near the power numbers that Bay put up in 2008 and 2009. You reference his 2007 season but you ignore his more current 2008 and 2009 seasons and the fact that he has improved dramatically in each and every one of his major league seasons. That's a pretty weak argument on your part.

There are few players in baseball at any position that will ever put up the numbers Bay has put up. These type of players don't grow on trees. I don't think that the O's have the luxury of waiting to find the ideal fit (a player who plays the right position, is the right age, is a great hitter and defender, and who is bargain priced) as their cleanup hitter.

If you don't like Bay defensively, then move him to DH. Plenty of ML power hitters have continued to produce at age 36 so I would have no problem whatsoever signing him for 5 years. I really don't care what position he plays or how much he is paid because the O's can stiil get the other players they need to compete as long as Peter Angelos gets up off of his fat wallet and increases the payroll to a respectable level.

BTW, let's hope that the O's can develop a top power hitter from within their own organization because I think that Peter Angelos is too cheap to ever buy one, regardless of what the plan may be, according to AM.

The sad thing is that I think that O's fans have subconciously accepted having a second-tier team because they somehow think they should care about how much Angelos spends for players as much as he does. Personally, I don't give a rat's rear end how much Angelos has to spend to produce a winner. If it takes a $100M payroll to do so, that's fine with me.

Albert Belle called. He'd like to borrow your fallacious absolute.

[DrungoHazewood]

Name one Orioles player who you can reasonably project to ever come anywhere near the power numbers that Bay put up in 2008 and 2009. You reference his 2007 season but you ignore his more current 2008 and 2009 seasons and the fact that he has improved dramatically in each and every one of his major league seasons. That's a pretty weak argument on your part.

There are few players in baseball at any position that will ever put up the numbers Bay has put up. These type of players don't grow on trees. I don't think that the O's have the luxury of waiting to find the ideal fit (a player who plays the right position, is the right age, is a great hitter and defender, and who is bargain priced) as their cleanup hitter.

If you don't like Bay defensively, then move him to DH. Plenty of ML power hitters have continued to produce at age 36 so I would have no problem whatsoever signing him for 5 years. I really don't care what position he plays or how much he is paid because the O's can stiil get the other players they need to compete as long as Peter Angelos gets up off of his fat wallet and increases the payroll to a respectable level.

BTW, let's hope that the O's can develop a top power hitter from within their own organization because I think that Peter Angelos is too cheap to ever buy one, regardless of what the plan may be, according to AM.

The sad thing is that I think that O's fans have subconciously accepted having a second-tier team because they somehow think they should care about how much Angelos spends for players as much as he does. Personally, I don't give a rat's rear end how much Angelos has to spend to produce a winner. If it takes a $100M payroll to do so, that's fine with me.

The vast majority of players, even Hall of Famers, aren't worth $18M a year at the age of 36. Jason Bay isn't what's separating this team from the playoffs. It's a number of things, including corner infielders, growth of position players, and the development and/or acquisition of top pitchers.

$100M or more payroll spent wisely when the time is right, is perfectly fine with me. I don't care about Peter Angelos and his bank account at all. I just care that the Baltimore Orioles have the resources to spend when the time is right, and blowing $100M on good-but-not-great free agents who play a position where the Orioles already have several good, young, cheap options means that it's harder to find the pieces they really need within their budget.

[Moose Milligan]

The vast majority of players, even Hall of Famers, aren't worth $18M a year at the age of 36. Jason Bay isn't what's separating this team from the playoffs. It's a number of things, including corner infielders, growth of position players, and the development and/or acquisition of top pitchers.

$100M or more payroll spent wisely when the time is right, is perfectly fine with me. I don't care about Peter Angelos and his bank account at all. I just care that the Baltimore Orioles have the resources to spend when the time is right, and blowing $100M on good-but-not-great free agents who play a position where the Orioles already have several good, young, cheap options means that it's harder to find the pieces they really need within their budget.

Too bad this excellent post will get ignored by the SPEND MONEY NOW crowd.

[Dr. FLK]

The vast majority of players, even Hall of Famers, aren't worth $18M a year at the age of 36. Jason Bay isn't what's separating this team from the playoffs. It's a number of things, including corner infielders, growth of position players, and the development and/or acquisition of top pitchers.

$100M or more payroll spent wisely when the time is right, is perfectly fine with me. I don't care about Peter Angelos and his bank account at all. I just care that the Baltimore Orioles have the resources to spend when the time is right, and blowing $100M on good-but-not-great free agents who play a position where the Orioles already have several good, young, cheap options means that it's harder to find the pieces they really need within their budget.

How do you define "when the time is right"? (Not being sarcastic here...just curious what your definition would be.)

[Hank Scorpio]

How do you define "when the time is right"? (Not being sarcastic here...just curious what your definition would be.)

When there's a need on the roster, the team is relevant enough for an available elite player to give a damn, and said player is available.

[Mackus]

The vast majority of players, even Hall of Famers, aren't worth $18M a year at the age of 36. Jason Bay isn't what's separating this team from the playoffs. It's a number of things, including corner infielders, growth of position players, and the development and/or acquisition of top pitchers.

I agree that Bay isn't a wise investment, but the argument against it that he won't be worth the last year of his contract isn't a good one, IMO.

If you're so concerned with every FA deal that you are only willing to sign guys you think will still be worth their salary in the last year of the deal, then you're never gonna sign anyone. Maybe you can build a team with only short-term FAs and developing/trading for talent, but its not all that likely.

At some point, you're gonna have to make a deal that helps you in the short term but that is likely to be in the best case overpaying and in the worst case an albatross for the final year. Maybe even the last two. We're not quite there yet, where the immediate impact is worth the long term drain, but we're going to be soon. You can't survive if you're only willing to give out contracts that are safe bets to still be looking good 4-5 years down the road. Some major long-term risk will eventually have to be taken.

[DrungoHazewood]

How do you define "when the time is right"? (Not being sarcastic here...just curious what your definition would be.)

Usually when the team has a talent level that you can project in the mid-80s in wins. Also helps when the free agent class actually has an excellent player at a position of need.

Most free agent deals are bad, and most huge free agent deals are really bad. They come closest to making sense when you're on the cusp of playoff revenues.

[Dr. FLK]

Usually when the team has a talent level that you can project in the mid-80s in wins. Also helps when the free agent class actually has an excellent player at a position of need.

Most free agent deals are bad, and most huge free agent deals are really bad. They come closest to making sense when you're on the cusp of playoff revenues.

I agree with that. It's just hard to know what to expect when you have so many young, unproven players. If a high percentage of our young guys meet or exceed potential this season, how many games do you think we can win? What is the ceiling of the current roster?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree that Bay isn't a wise investment, but the argument against it that he won't be worth the last year of his contract isn't a good one, IMO.

If you're so concerned with every FA deal that you are only willing to sign guys you think will still be worth their salary in the last year of the deal, then you're never gonna sign anyone. Maybe you can build a team with only short-term FAs and developing/trading for talent, but its not all that likely.

At some point, you're gonna have to make a deal that helps you in the short term but that is likely to be in the best case overpaying and in the worst case an albatross for the final year. Maybe even the last two. We're not quite there yet, where the immediate impact is worth the long term drain, but we're going to be soon. You can't survive if you're only willing to give out contracts that are safe bets to still be looking good 4-5 years down the road. Some major long-term risk will eventually have to be taken.

Yes, I know. The main point was that signing a pretty good left fielder to a long, expensive contract through his mid-30s doesn't make much sense for a team with two potentially very good left fielders already on the roster at a fraction of the cost.

I have no problem splurging on a player, even on a contract that won't be worth it in every year, as long as the player fits and the team is in a position to really benefit from his production.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with that. It's just hard to know what to expect when you have so many young, unproven players. If a high percentage of our young guys meet or exceed potential this season, how many games do you think we can win? What is the ceiling of the current roster?

It's hard to say. Most great leaps forward involve several good young players exploding at the same time. So they could contend as early as next year. But it's more likely the current roster is in the 70s in wins, and with a few trades or other acquisitions they could be pushed as high as the low 80s.

So, I think it would be unrealistically optimistic to think any number of free agents from this class could make the Orioles serious contenders in 2010.

[LookinUp]

Usually when the team has a talent level that you can project in the mid-80s in wins. Also helps when the free agent class actually has an excellent player at a position of need.

Most free agent deals are bad, and most huge free agent deals are really bad. They come closest to making sense when you're on the cusp of playoff revenues.

This is why a lot of folks can justify a big contract for Lackey now. We really aren't a mid-80's win team this year, but we could probably be next year.

This is the most frustrating part of AM's policy to me. I understanding growing the arms...but I wouldn't mind going for one special arm to help this franchise, understanding that the risk is higher than buying a bat.