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Tigers are close to trading Edwin Jackson

jdmyprez

By jdmyprez
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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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Ed Price is saying it is the Mets... Guess that ends the discussion!
Probably a pretty good deal for the Mets. If they aren't giving up Martinez or Havens, they really don't have much that is of great value prospect-wise. And he'll likely have some success in Citi Field.
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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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So seasons don't count if the first half was good and the second half was bad? Overall he had a very good season. Almost every one of his numbers has improved over the last 3 years. His innings have increased from 161 to 214 over the last 3 years with a 30 inning jump last year. I think we'd be giddy if our young pitchers showed the same progression. As for the 2nd half, we'd probably be chalking that up to a career high in innings for a 25 year old pitcher. His 2008 season in TB combined with last year show that this guy is no fluke. Is a a TOR pitcher? Who knows, but he'd got TOR stuff, IMO. If we had him, we'd be asking for the farm from another team. I'm just curious as to why some seem to be downgrading him as much as they are. I saw a pitcher with legit mid 90's stuff, a good breaking ball, and a very good changeup when he pitched against us last year. The numbers show a pitcher who is ascending year by year, despite a mediocre (terrible is much too strong a word, IMO) second half.

He clearly ran out gas as the season wore on. His stats actually deteriorated throughout the season, with each month getting worse and worse, culminating in this line for September/October:

7 GS, 44 IP, 50 H, 7 HR, 14 BB, 30 SO, .846 OPSA, 6.1 SO/9 (versus over 7 SO/9 in three of the first four months of the season)

All of this with a pitchers park in DET as a home field.

Regarding 2008, he was up-and-down throughout the season and once again crashed and burned in September/October:

5 GS, 27.1 IP, 45 H, 4 HR, 8 BB, 18 SO, .993 OPSA, 5.9 SO/9 (versus 6/4 and 6.5 SO/9 at the beginning of the year)

He definitely throws hard. His control is spotty and I would be surprised if his command ever got to the point where he could put up consistent front-end production.

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jdmyprez AAA

jdmyprez

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Ken Rosenthal is saying that Jackson is close to being dealt but again does not name who is after him. He does say that the Dodgers, Mets and Brewers are NOT after him. I am a bit surprised to hear the Dodgers have no interest.

I know we seem torn on whether we really want him or not but personally, I really,really hope the O's are in on this.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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Buster_ESPN:

The Tigers' asking price on Edwin Jackson is said by other teams to be very, very high at this point.

If their asking price was merely "high" I'd have lost all interest in Jackson. That it is "very, very high" makes me start actively hoping that we don't end up trading for him.

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jdmyprez AAA

jdmyprez

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If their asking price was merely "high" I'd have lost all interest in Jackson. That it is "very, very high" makes me start actively hoping that we don't end up trading for him.

I would have to agree with you. I am very high on bringing him to Baltimore but not at the risk of giving up key pieces to acquire him.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Again, his numbers show no bias towards his home park, so although I'm sure it didn't hurt him, he certainly did very well away from home as well. I'd agree that his 2008 September was a crash and burn but I think you're being a little hard on him for 2009. His ERA was under 3.00 entering September. He averaged over 6 innings per start as your stats show. He also maintained a solid K:BB ratio. Pitching another 30 innings than the previous year may have been the culprit or maybe he just pitches badly in September. I'm not sure we know yet but I think the increased workload is a logical explanation. Even if we go with the crash and burn theory, what does it mean. He crashed and burned in September 2008, and yet was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of 2009. Is there any reason to expect him not to pitch well next year, especially for the first 4 or 5 months of the season? Your calling his control spotty? I think the majority of ML pitchers would be happy with 3 walks per 9 innings. Not only that, but his control has improved every year. Furthermore, he maintained his control even when he wore down in September. As for front end production, he put up front end production for 4 months. His last two months were mediocre by ML standards but not completely awful. I just don't get your negative take on this guy.

The majority of ML pitchers are not front-end starters. His 4-seam has excellent velocity and not much life. His 2-seam is an upper-80s to low-90s pitch with some run. His command is bad. He misses up in the zone and can be very hittable because of it. I'd take him as a mid-rotation starter, but not as a #1 or a #2. I certainly wouldn't give up anything significant for him, considering BAL has plenty of arms to fill-in the middle of a rotation right now.

His last two months were not awful? Teams OPSed .845 against him from August through October. He allowed 13 homeruns in 75 IP.

Re: Control as spotty -- I don't want to re-type but here are his gamelogs on the same page (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1841&position=P&season=). He fluctuates greatly from game-to-game. Sometimes he throws strikes and sometimes he doesn't. He had, I believe, 8 starts of 4 or more walks allowed. I do not see him as a good bet to be a consistent producer. Give me six cheap years of Arrieta any day over rolling the dice on Jackson having everything click for a full season.

EDIT -- I actually took the time to look up the numbers. Using 100 IP as the cut-off, 62 pitchers posted a better BB/9 rate than Edwin Jackson.

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