Tigers are close to trading Edwin Jackson

[Mackus]

How good are those predictive numbers at actually predicting how individual P's perform?

Not pitchers-as-a-group, but predicting how Person-X will perform? How exact and reliable are the predictions you're referring to?

They are a lot more reliable than ERA and wins and things like that.

I don't know the exact R-squared value, but the fancy stats like xFIP do a much better job of predicting how a guy will pitch in the future than ERA and win totals and the like. That's extremely true for groups, but still holds for individuals, although obviously there is a lot more volatility with individuals than groups.

There really isn't any way to account for if a guy just flat out plays better or worse. That's just up to the player. But if given the same level of overall performance, look to things like xFIP for what a guy will do the next season much more reliably than ERA.

[Lucky Jim]

Why is it such a big deal that some folks are suspicious of Jackson's 2009 success?

No one is banking on those numbers being absolute predictions of his future performance. All anyone has really said is that they see too many potential issues - in their opinion - for them to confidently predict anything more than a middle of the rotation starter. As Stotle said, that's actually a compliment. They see him as something akin to Guthrie last year and the year before. (Not exactly the same, but there are some real similarities.)

Essentially, someone - at the time - outpitching his actual performance, with some possibility of regression due to largely unsustainable peripherals (BABIP, LOB %, etc.)

Of course there's a possibility that Jackson's true talent means that those seemingly unsustainable components are in fact sustainable. But that mere possibility is clearly not obvious enough for folks to anoint a guy who has had one good year into the realm of TOR - or likely TOR - starters.

The reasonable position on peripherals is to know that they're not absolute, but also to know that if a performance seems anomalous it's more than likely temporary.

It's hardly a radical position, as this article on Fangraphs supports (from a mixture of statistical and PitchFX data):

By the time right-hander Edwin Jackson got shipped from Tampa Bay to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce, he had acquired the pejorative “thrower, not a pitcher” tag.

You’re likely familiar with Jackson’s story by now. By 19, he was in AA and whiffing over a batter per inning. Prior to the 2004 season, Baseball America named Jackson the best prospect in a Dodgers top 30 list that included the likes of Franklin Gutierrez, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Russell Martin.

BA gushed that Jackson was “the complete package,” fitting “the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee.” He beat Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday. Jackson looked poised to take LA by storm.

Except he didn’t. The next three years of Jackson’s career were essentially lost, as he got pummeled in AAA and the majors. He couldn’t find the strike zone with a GPS. Exasperated, L.A. jettisoned Jackson to Tampa Bay in January of ‘06 for middle relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. From 2004-2006, Edwin posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 between AAA Las Vegas and Durham. He was a mess.

Two seasons in Tampa’s rotation produced FIP’s of 4.90 and 4.88, respectively. After Jackson’s trade to the Tigers, we chronicled his tenure with the Rays. His ERA dropped dramatically from 2007 to 2008 (5.76 to 4.42), but that supposed progress seemed questionable. Jackson’s walk rate improved, but that came at the expense of considerably fewer K’s. His BABIP dipped 50 points from ‘07 to ‘08, thanks to historically improved D in Tampa.

One season later, Jackson’s ERA has again dipped by a big margin. In 2009, he registered a 3.62 ERA in 214 frames. With the Tigers facing a payroll crunch (I suppose that can happen when a club has a combined $65.5M tied up in Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson in 2010), Detroit is reportedly willing to listen to offers for Jackson. Is Edwin finally making good on the Baseball America’s bold prognostication?

The 26 year-old did make legitimate progress this past season. His K/BB ratio climbed from 1.4 to 2.3, as he raised his K rate to 6.77 per nine frames while issuing 2.94 BB/9. However, Jackson’s performance was more commensurate with a low-to-mid four’s ERA than his mid-three’s mark. He benefitted from a .281 BABIP, which helps explain the discord between his 3.62 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

Jackson’s searing mid-90’s fastball wasn’t all that special (-0.41 runs/100), but a biting upper-80’s slider (+1.89) made life difficult for opposing batters. He improved his outside-swing percentage from just 21.7% in 2008 to a healthy 27.2% in ‘09 (25% MLB average).

As he reached unprecedented territory in terms of innings pitched, Jackson appeared to hit the wall:

April-June (6.98 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.25 FIP)

Fastball/100 pitches: +1.06

Slider/100 pitches: +2.0

Z-Contact%: 87.5

Zone%: 49.6

F-Strike%: 58.4

July-September (6.56 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.35 FIP)

Fastball/100: -1.75

Slider/100: 1.82

Z-Contact%: 88.7

Zone%: 46.8

F-Strike%: 50.8

MLB avg Z-Contact% is 87.8%

MLB avg Zone% is 49.3%

MLB avg F-Strike% is 58.2

Keep in mind that the run values for the fastball and slider are subject to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In Jackson’s case, he had a an extremely low BABIP during the first three months, while giving up few homers. In the second half, his BABIP regressed, as did his HR/FB rate.

But even so, Jackson clearly had problems locating from July onward. His rate of pitches thrown within the strike zone fell three percentage points, and his first-pitch strike percentage plummeted from league-average territory to barely over 50 percent.

In all, Jackson provided 3.5 Wins Above Replacement for the Tigers, a performance worth nearly $16M on the open market. The former Dodger and Ray has two years of team control left.

Jackson clearly took a step forward in 2009, but it’s important not to get too caught up in his ace-like ERA in the first half or his punching bag act in the second half. The truth lies somewhere in between those two extremes. A top-of-the-line arm? Not at the present moment. But Jackson looks like an above-average starter.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/gauging-edwin-jackson

The bolded sections support what others on here have said. Is there upside potential for more? Sure. I doubt anyone denies that. There's just a difference in how people gauge the probability of that happening.

[sangar]

Maybe it’s for former Oriole Sherrill? - Just my 2 cents.

If nothing else it would make for a nice story line;

"Dodgers trade former Oriole for former Dodger who was traded for a former Oriole and Dodger".

If we hurry and resign Hendrickson maybe we can get in on the act too.

[rhall]

Yeah, I guess all of those early exits are why he finished with the 16th highest amount of innings pitched in all of baseball last year.

I was speaking more towards a likely outcome of someone who pitches the way Jackson does.

To Jackson's credit, he stayed healthy last year, racking up 33 starts. 30+ starts go a long way towards hitting that 200 IP mark, which in today's day in age will place you among the season leaders.

One thing that helped Jackson average almost 6.5 innings per start over those 33 starts is that Detroit let him rack up high pitch counts. He averaged a hair over 105 pitches per start and over a stretch from the end of June to the beginning of August he threw at least 110 pitches in 7 out of 8 starts. In 4 of those starts, he had 4 walks or more. Obviously, he did a good job of battling to try and give his team a chance to win. He went 2-1 in those 8 starts with Detroit winning 5 out of 3. But it wouldn't be hard to see some managers pulling him out of games earlier, which would pull down his season IP total. If he averaged only 1/2 of an inning less per game than he did last year, he doesn't hit that 200 inning mark. That just goes to show how fickle end of season numbers can be.

It's not always just how the numbers look at the end of the season, but how you accumulate them. The baseball season is a marathan, and the best players can play at a consistent level.

I also want to point out that I don't think anyone (myself included) is saying Edwin Jackson isn't a good player. He's already established himself as a mid-rotation starter, and probably still has the ceiling to be a #2. The question is, is he a good bet to reach that ceiling? How does his actual value compare to his perceived value? That's the issue for me.

[rhall]

Because people ignore things when it doesn't fit their argument. Just like Stotle first pointing to Jackon's walk rate as being 62nd in baseball as evidence of spotty control. When it was pointed out that 62nd was actually in the top half he went to a different set of statistics.

That's pretty nitpicky, IMO. That ranking looked pretty firmly in the middle of the pack to me, which I think was Stotle's point. You said that most pitchers would be happy to have Jackson's walk rate, and Stotle pointed out that most pitchers DO have Jackson's walk rate.

EDIT: Oops, that's what I get for not reading through the thread to catch up. I pretty much just restated one of Stotle's earlier posts. Sorry for the redundancy.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't know but I'd bet that Jackson's 2007 predictive numbers didn't accurately predict what he'd do in 2008 and his 2008 numbers didn't accurately predict what he'd do in 2009. Whatever happened to the numbers just showing you what the guy actually did do? lol

You know as well as the rest of us that ERA and other "numbers just showing you what the guy actually did", well... ummm... don't. ERA, taking one example, shows us what he did, masked by his defense, further masked by his home park, again masked by his luck, and further obscured by his home official scorer's tendency to mark things an error or a hit. But you knew that. And if you'd highlighted that it would make the job of selling Edwin Jackson's future harder, so you passed.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Well, forget about Jackson.

What a monster 3 way deal between NY, Arizona and Det.

Yankees get Granderson...Oh boy!

[murrayfan420]

It must be nice rooting for teams who make a splash.

[Lucky Jim]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Well, forget about Jackson.

What a monster 3 way deal between NY, Arizona and Det.

Yankees get Granderson...Oh boy!

That's not the world-changing big deal it was a few years ago. He's trending downward in all areas, no? (He bounced back to slightly above average defensively this year from a bad 2008) but his hitting has declined steadily.

Still good value, but not the end of the world.

[clapdiddy]

That's not the world-changing big deal it was a few years ago. He's trending downward in all areas, no? (He bounced back to slightly above average defensively this year from a bad 2008) but his hitting has declined steadily.

Still good value, but not the end of the world.

Honestly, I like what Detroit got in this deal.

[ChaosLex]

That's not the world-changing big deal it was a few years ago. He's trending downward in all areas, no? (He bounced back to slightly above average defensively this year from a bad 2008) but his hitting has declined steadily.

Still good value, but not the end of the world.

He's a MFY now.

Therefore, he'll have an All-Star caliber year. Book it!

[Mackus]

I don't think this is an enormous win for the Yankees.

Granderson was only a very tiny bit above average with both the bat and glove last year (6.0 RAA w/ Bat, 1.6 RAA w/ glove), the bulk of his value the last couple years has been nearly completely due to being a CF who plays everyday.

He'll probably bounce back to the 7+ WAR player he was in 2007 as soon as he steps foot in Yankee Stadium, but if he doesn't, this won't be a fantastic move for them.

I do think the Tigers got a real nice return for those two guys.

[Stotle]

Honestly, I like what Detroit got in this deal.

I agree. I heard:

DET got back Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer and Phil Coke;

ARI got Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy; and

NYA got Curtis Granderson

If that's the case, I think NYA was silly, DET did very well, and ARI will lose a bit with Jackson taking his 1+ HR/9 to the Chase Field.

Good move by DET.

[Stotle]

I don't think this is an enormous win for the Yankees.

Granderson was only a very tiny bit above average with both the bat and glove last year (6.0 RAA w/ Bat, 1.6 RAA w/ glove), the bulk of his value the last couple years has been nearly completely due to being a CF who plays everyday.

He'll probably bounce back to the 7+ WAR player he was in 2007 as soon as he steps foot in Yankee Stadium, but if he doesn't, this won't be a fantastic move for them.

I do think the Tigers got a real nice return for those two guys.

Agreed. DET did really well, and I would go so far as to say I dislike the move for NYA.

[Mackus]

Agreed. DET did really well, and I would go so far as to say I dislike the move for NYA.

I don't think you can make a determination from there end until you see how Granderson responds to that park and with their team.

It wouldn't be the first time they picked up someone coming off a few down years and he immediately bounces back. If he gets back to being a 5-6 WAR player, this is a huge win for him. Even if he stays in the 3-3.5 WAR range, its a nice addition, although the guys they give up are certainly very talented.