Breaking News: Per Balt. Sun, O's, Texas Agree to Deal to swap Millwood, cash for Ray

[Lucky Jim]

To be fair, prior to last year's damn-the-peripherals season, neither has Milwood -- and he's much more expensive.

Let's note his FIP the prior two years were 4.60 and 4.20. Which aren't that bad. And xFIPs of 4.8 and 4.2. So those ugly ERAs the previous years are as shaky as his gaudy ERA last year.

I think we can hope for 190 IP of 4.50 ERA with a strong likelihood that it's 4.75+ and some chance that he falls off a cliff (and a slightly smaller chance that he puts up a 4.20 ERA).

[RVAbird]

Very nice. Millwood is whatever, but this is exactly the profile of pitcher that MacPhail was after. Garland would have required 2+ years and probably wouldn't have wanted to come here. Millwood at least has some upside, but I'm not expecting better than a 4.50 ERA. Chris Ray was a DFA candidate and is no loss.

I wouldn't expect more than 3 MM being eaten on Texas' part, but I still like the deal.

Looks like we will have a rotation of:

Millwood

Guthrie

Bergesen

Matusz

Tillman

With Arrieta and Erbe waiting in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see us take a flyer on Bedard as well, assuming his medical records are okay.

[Birds08]

Let's say this goes down and we also sign Bedard. What does our rotation look like once Arrieta is ready?

[Stotle]

I would expect Millwood to give us what Guthrie gave us last year..maybe a little better.

But we have a staff that should eat innings, which should help a pen that has potential to be pretty good.

Its only one year and I think Ray should be non tendered anyway...So, this is essentially a 1 year FA contract for Millwood.

As I said, getting one of these stop gap, innings eaters to sign a one year contract to play here may be very difficult.

End of the day, this is a very good trade for us...Millwood isn't spectacular but this is a deal that could end up reaping huge benefits for us if Millwood has a good first half.

Worse case scenario...You have wasted money and Ray regains his old form...Still, its not a terrible worse case scenario.

I was probably being too half-empty with my response -- this is a more reasonable take. I'm not a believer in Millwood, but at the end of the day there is value in a 1-year deal so long as he's logging a lot of innings.

[byrdz]

Definitely OK with this as I don't thin Ray will regain his old form.

[McLovin]

Ray is replaceable.

Sad but true. A couple of years ago, this wasn't exactly true. It's the unfortunate reality of the moment though.

If true, this is a great deal. And it says a lot about Andy's state of mind - he's keeping the prospects.

[Boy Howdy]

Yeah that's a very good comp. Hopefully he can handle the AL East though. The MFY lit him up last year (6.35 ERA in 2 starts and 11IP), but he did very well against the Sox, Rays, and Jays (4-1 in 6 starts).

His team won both of those games, though.

I like the move. I really do, but it's funny when people describe him as a 200-inning guy. He's reached that mark exactly once in the last 6 years.

But I nitpick. He's won 155 major league games, turns 35 on Christmas Eve, and has made 29 or more starts in 10 of the last 12 years. Even though I still have bad feelings due to my anti-Braves allegiances, I'm glad he's apparently donning my favorite uniform and I think he'll be better than a lot of the drek we've been seeing.

[Going Underground]

Also Millwood is good with teammates and gives alot to charity.

http://www.bgcarltx.org/cms/index.php?mact=News,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=7&cntnt01returnid=66

[murrayfan420]

I was nervous about acquiring Millwood when Erbe’s name was being thrown around, but Ray isn’t a big loss.

Millwood

Guthrie

Bergesen

Matusz

Tillman

Not too shabby

[JTrea81]

Rosenthal also confirms deal is close:

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/6505868951

[Biff Tannen]

This would be a fantastic trade.

However, I'm having flashbacks of when we traded for Kris Benson. All along, it was "Julio for Benson," "Julio for Benson," "Julio for Benson." Then when the trade was official, it suddenly became Julio and Maine for Benson.

Here's hoping that's not how this turns out!

[Boy Howdy]

Let's say this goes down and we also sign Bedard. What does our rotation look like once Arrieta is ready?

I still haven't heard a believable projection of Bedard being anywhere but the DL 'til after the All-Star break.

[AgentOrange]

Sad but true. A couple of years ago, this wasn't exactly true. It's the unfortunate reality of the moment though.

If true, this is a great deal. And it says a lot about Andy's state of mind - he's keeping the prospects.

And he is going after teams that have decent over priced players and picking them up for almost nothing. Using our payroll flexibility. Good to see.

[Stotle]

Let's note his FIP the prior two years were 4.60 and 4.20. Which aren't that bad. And xFIPs of 4.8 and 4.2. So those ugly ERAs the previous years are as shaky as his gaudy ERA last year.

I think we can hope for 190 IP of 4.50 ERA with a strong likelihood that it's 4.75+ and some chance that he falls off a cliff (and a slightly smaller chance that he puts up a 4.20 ERA).

And it's a good deal if he does that and pitches to a #3/4. Even the worst case isn't awful (as RVA/SG point out). So long as he's healthy, eating innings and doesn't fall off a cliff, it's a fine deal -- and one MacPhail should be commended for finding, since it only puts BAL on the hook for 1-year and makes room for Arrieta or a better arm through FA/trade next year.

[byrdz]

Yeah that's a very good comp. Hopefully he can handle the AL East though. The MFY lit him up last year (6.35 ERA in 2 starts and 11IP), but he did very well against the Sox, Rays, and Jays (4-1 in 6 starts).

What pitcher hasn't been lit up by the Yankees?