Why not Holliday?

[Sports Guy]

Sorry, but I think you're comment comes across as a bit naive. Holliday is the best FA bat avaliable...and we need a big bat in our lineup. We shouldn't let the fact that he doesn't play a position of need discourage us from pursuing him if his price tag does in fact drop. Luke Scott is a nonfactor in my opinion. I'm 100 percent convinced he will be traded. That would leave us with arguably five potential everday players (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pie, Holliday) to plug into four spots (counting the DH). Not a bad problem to have. It would also give us the flexibility to shop a Jones, Reimold, Pie type for a player that fills a position of need. I personally think an Ad.Jones for A.Gonzalez trade might have some potential and make sense for both sides. or maybe we could flip one for our SS of the future...

I guess that long-winded point I'm trying to make is that the best path between two points is not always a straight line.

Why?

How come the Yankees won in the lat 90s with really only one 30 homer hitter?

[Roll Tide]

Right now this guy has no market. None. Jason Bay is getting more attention than Holliday is.

Right now Holliday is too expensive for just about every team, with the Orioles being one of the few exceptions. We all know how methodical MacPhail is so he's willing to wait out the FA market, and Boras is just as methodical as an agent.

Nobody is giving Holliday Tex money, and he's not even likely to get 20 million per season.

I was proposing 6/114 for Holliday earlier this offseason, but right now, I doubt he even gets that. I think his best offer right now is going to be around 5/90 maybe and the Orioles could easily beat that.

This guy, while not the perfect fit as far as being a RH 1B man, is exactly what the Orioles need IMO.

Why Not????? You ask.... McPhail & Angelos are too cheap.

[Moose Milligan]

Because we have 4 above average OFers and pissing away 18+ million a year on another one is a stupid use of resources.

Bingo.

It doesn't get any easier than this, yet it won't stop the little McNugget from pining for Holliday or Bay.

[RShack]

Sorry, but I think you're comment comes across as a bit naive. Holliday is the best FA bat avaliable...and we need a big bat in our lineup. We shouldn't let the fact that he doesn't play a position of need discourage us from pursuing him if his price tag does in fact drop.

But what matters is not just how he hits. What matters is how much better he hits than whoever he's replacing in the lineup. It's the amount of improvement that matters, and since he plays a position where we look pretty good already, that lessens the amount of improvement he would provide.

Now, whether you think he's worth it in light of that, well, that's up to you. But you gotta remember that it's the net improvement that matters, not just his numbers in a vacuum...

[Moose Milligan]

The Cards made an offer to Holliday today. I don't see the Orioles making a formal offer anytime soon.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/cardinals-make-formal-offer-to-matt-holliday.html

Whoa, I thought there was practically no market for Holliday as of earlier this afternoon. Apparently the market has already set itself in the span of a few hours.

[JTrea81]

Whoa, I thought there was practically no market for Holliday as of earlier this afternoon. Apparently the market has already set itself in the span of a few hours.

I hardly call one team a market.

[JTrea81]

Why Not????? You ask.... McPhail & Angelos are too cheap.

And this is the reason Roch gives as well:

Roch,

In regards to Lackey, Holliday, and Bay...why wouldn't the O's be a possibility for any of them. Lackey is better than any pitcher in our organization. Bay or Holliday would be better than any hitter in our lineup. Why wouldn't the O's pursue these guys? If the front office is willing to pay Markakis $60M+ to put up an OPS+ of 109, why wouldn't we pay Holliday $100M to put up an OPS+ of 135? It just doesn't make sense. Our LF spot is far from settled...this is a spot for an elite hitter and Reimold/Pie/Scott do not fit that description.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think you know the answer if you've been following this team. They won't spend that kind of money. Not saying I totally agree, but they won't do it. And they're not concerned about the outfield. They're focused on corner infielders and the 'pen. Plus adding one more starter coming off injuries. - Roch

Looks like Roch is even convinced MacPhail won't spend enough to add premium talent.

Holliday will be a slight bargain compared to what Fielder and Gonzalez get after 2011 if they make it to FA. With only a few teams bidding on him, I doubt Boras gets even close to what he is looking for.

[wildbillhiccup]

But what matters is not just how he hits. What matters is how much better he hits than whoever he's replacing in the lineup. It's the amount of improvement that matters, and since he plays a position where we look pretty good already, that lessens the amount of improvement he would provide.

Now, whether you think he's worth it in light of that, well, that's up to you. But you gotta remember that it's the net improvement that matters, not just his numbers in a vacuum...

Lets be serious for a second. Are you really going to argue that Holliday would not be an upgrade over ANY of our OFs? That, in and of itself would make us a better team. And if we're able to trade an OF for young corner infielder or shortstop it would be icing on the cake.

For the sake of argument, lets say the O's sign Holliday and trade Ad. Jones for A-Gon (and Scott for a bullpen arm or 2nd tier prosect). You don't think we would be in a better position then we are now?

[RShack]

Lets be serious for a second. Are you really going to argue that Holliday would not be an upgrade over ANY of our OFs?

I never said that, and you know I never said that. I said the fact that we already have good OF'ers means that the amount of upgrade isn't as big a deal as some folks seem to think it is. And, no, I don't think that complicated schemes involving getting him and then trading other guys all around are likely to actually happen. Trades are harder to do than people think. Not saying it's impossible, but I think the chances are like one in a zillion...

[Lucky Jim]

But what matters is not just how he hits. What matters is how much better he hits than whoever he's replacing in the lineup. It's the amount of improvement that matters, and since he plays a position where we look pretty good already, that lessens the amount of improvement he would provide.

Now, whether you think he's worth it in light of that, well, that's up to you. But you gotta remember that it's the net improvement that matters, not just his numbers in a vacuum...

Not just that, it's actually the amount of improvement and the money spent for that improvement. Hypothetically, if Reimold or Pie cost $450,000 and provides 2.0 - 2.5 wins, and Holliday costs $20m and is worth 5.0-6.0 wins, then we're paying $19.5m for 3.0-3.5 wins. Which means we're paying $6m a win. Which means it's pretty inefficient. And that doesn't take into account any likely improvement of Reimold and the likely decline of Holliday.

[RShack]

Not just that, it's actually the amount of improvement and the money spent for that improvement. Hypothetically, if Reimold or Pie cost $450,000 and provides 2.0 - 2.5 wins, and Holliday costs $20m and is worth 5.0-6.0 wins, then we're paying $19.5m for 3.0-3.5 wins. Which means we're paying $6m a win. Which means it's pretty inefficient. And that doesn't take into account any likely improvement of Reimold and the likely decline of Holliday.

Well, I certainly agree with your basic point. At the same time, it's not just being cost-effective that matters, simply because there's only so many AB's to go around. Having a whole crew of cost-effective guys won't help if they collectively don't score enough. If we could get AB's for 3 of your Reimold's instead of 1 of your Holliday's, that would be one thing, but we can't. However, I'm sure we agree about this already, and are mainly just passing the time because there's nothing else to talk about.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I certainly agree with your basic point. At the same time, it's not just being cost-effective that matters, simply because there's only so many AB's to go around. Having a whole crew of cost-effective guys won't help if they collectively don't score enough. If we could get AB's for 3 of your Reimold's instead of 1 of your Holliday's, that would be one thing, but we can't. However, I'm sure we agree about this already, and are mainly just passing the time because there's nothing else to talk about.

Agree completely. Common sense, I think. Obviously, $450,000 is the baseline and getting .5 or 1 win out of that a guy isn't going to help - you don't lose any efficiency. Thus, that floor allows for some leeway. A lot of guys worth 2-3 WAR at the league minimum is a lot of value. And you can then spend the leftover elsewhere, where you've had a harder time finding valuable players.

[theobird]

Regardless of the debate around to sign or not to sign (we won't, so not much of a point), I think Holliday is really overrated. Sure, the guy tore it up after he was traded, but we see that time and time again when guys go to the NL. Heck, Julio Lugo was hitting the cover off the ball after he left, and he sat on the bench for the Bosox. When Holliday was in Oak, he was hardly an elite player. Sure, the park is a pitcher's park, but he still put up numbers that were not outstanding by any means. I don't want those concerns if I'm looking to shell out long term big bucks for a guy. Let someone else make the mistake of signing him to a 100 million+ contract. I'll stick with our current outfield and RF, who is just as good as Holliday in my mind.

I agree, I just don't see Holliday as a premier power hitter. The Red Sox jumped off the Holliday wagon because they were much more comfortable negotiating with Jason Bay, because Bay has proven to play well in the AL. I see it the same way. I would not be willing to pay Matt Holliday as much as Jason Bay, and the guy is asking for about 40% more! Somebody is going to get stuck with a very poor contract with this guy. He isn't worth it even if you had a whole in LF, and we do not. Pass.

[tvz1997]

I agree, I just don't see Holliday as a premier power hitter. The Red Sox jumped off the Holliday wagon because they were much more comfortable negotiating with Jason Bay, because Bay has proven to play well in the AL. I see it the same way. I would not be willing to pay Matt Holliday as much as Jason Bay, and the guy is asking for about 40% more! Somebody is going to get stuck with a very poor contract with this guy. He isn't worth it even if you had a whole in LF, and we do not. Pass.

I still would take Holliday over Bay, but I think you are right in questioning whether or not he is a real cleanup hitter. In fact, I think Lackey is closer to being a genuine ace than Holliday is to being a genuine scary cleanup hitter, but sometimes people take Holliday's prowess as a given because he is the best available hitter in a weak market.

[Leitch]

Matt Holliday is better than Jason Bay.

Matt Holliday is not better than several free-agents to be who we would not be able to afford if we were paying Matt Holliday a lot of money to play for the Orioles.

Matt Holliday is a little overrated, especially around here.