Padres asking price for Adrian Gonzalez

[Sports Guy]

1. It depends on what I am giving up. If the Padres only want two blue chippers, I'd probably do it without an extension. However if they want 3 or more, an extension would be required.

2. I'd give him 8/160 ripping up the last two years of his deal.

So, you are willing to give up 2 potential long term blue chip prospects to have a guy for 2 years in hopes that we may compete in 1 of them?

My god Jtrea...How on earth can you possibly think that is a smart move?

BTW. Jtrea you are wrong about the "keep away" game...I would rather see the Red Sox lose 4 or 5 top level prospects/ML ready guys and overpay him in an extension...That is better for us.

[JTrea81]

So, you are willing to give up 2 potential long term blue chip prospects to have a guy for 2 years in hopes that we may compete in 1 of them?

My god Jtrea...How on earth can you possibly think that is a smart move?

BTW. Jtrea you are wrong about the "keep away" game...I would rather see the Red Sox lose 4 or 5 top level prospects/ML ready guys and overpay him in an extension...That is better for us.

How is it good for us when they can just draft replacements for those players or sign international prospects?

Losing prospects does not hurt the Red Sox one bit. The Red Sox have no problems acquiring talent.

The only thing that it will do for us is just make it that much harder to beat them.

[hoosiers]

The BoSox can't afford to let AGon go somewhere else, IMO. That lineup is getting pretty old and has a lot of performance deterioration and injury risk to it.

[Dr. Andrews]

There's a keep away part of this too that's too big to ignore. Boston covets Gonzalez and they do not have the power prospects in the minors to fill that 1B position.

By trading for Gonzalez, you keep him away from a division rival and force them to pay huge $ for Fielder or Howard or trade for a player that isn't quite as good.

Any trade with Boston will come with an extension most likely as Gonzalez wants to play for the Red Sox, and it wouldn't shock me to see that extension be below market.

So if we let the Red Sox trade for him, we'll have to face him and Mark Teixeira for 36 games for at least the next 6 years.

And you can say that trading prospects hurts the Red Sox but it really doesn't as they can easily replace those prospects as they are willing to spend internationally and in the draft.

If we let the Red Sox grab Gonzalez, we might as well forget about the playoffs in this division for quite some time IMO unless we can counter with a big move of our own. And since MacPhail wants to put blinders on and just have the Orioles focus on themselves, I doubt that happens.

Sometimes, I feel that you are the one with "blinders" on. Do you watch the same games that I do?

Orioles pitching (rankings based on entire MLB...not just the AL):

Team ERA: 5.15 (the worst)

Team Earned Runs given up: 817 (the worst)

Team BAA: .288 (the worst)

Now tell me how trading away our highest ranked pitching prospects in 9 years (to Matt Riley who subsequently had 2 Tommy John surgeries and never really got a shot in the majors), is the answer to our GLARING NEED/PROBLEM. I'm not saying we don't need a big bat within the next 2 years to compete, because we do, but we're not THE WORST hitting team in baseball at the moment by any means...and a solid year at the plate by Wieters/Bell/Snyder can significantly improve on the Zaun/Mora/Huff ordeal that we had last year. We were, however THE WORST pitching team in all of baseball in 2009, and sadly, not even an addition like AGonz can overcome an 817 Earned Runs deficit. The pitching is broken, and you're advocating trading the repairmen that will potentially fix it...that doesn't make sense to me.

[JTrea81]

Sometimes, I feel that you are the one with "blinders" on. Do you watch the same games that I do?

Orioles pitching (rankings based on entire MLB...not just the AL):

Team ERA: 5.15 (the worst)

Team Earned Runs given up: 817 (the worst)

Team BAA: .288 (the worst)

Now tell me how trading away our highest ranked pitching prospects in 9 years (to Matt Riley who subsequently had 2 Tommy John surgeries and never really got a shot in the majors), is the answer to our GLARING NEED/PROBLEM. I'm not saying we don't need a big bat within the next 2 years to compete, because we do, but we're not THE WORST hitting team in baseball at the moment by any means...and a solid year at the plate by Wieters/Bell/Snyder can significantly improve on the Zaun/Mora/Huff ordeal that we had last year. We were, however THE WORST pitching team in all of baseball in 2009, and sadly, not even an addition like AGonz can overcome an 817 Earned Runs deficit. The pitching is broken, and you're advocating trading the repairmen that will potentially fix it...that doesn't make sense to me.

Who's to say Chris Tillman or Jake Arrieta will fix the pitching? They may not be better than a 4th starter. People are so confident that those two will reach their ceilings and become the next Palmer and Mussina, but what happens if they don't? Aren't they more valuable to us in a trade for a hitter that will give us 5-6+ WAR per season vs. 3-4 combined?

And what good is it having a Palmer or Mussina if they keep losing games 4-2 because the offense is poor?

The Orioles need to improve in both hitting and pitching and acquiring guys like Garrett Atkins and Hank Blalock aren't going to do much for you in the hitting dept.

And it's not like Snyder and Bell are a lock either. Bell is more likely to succeed than Snyder IMO, but neither has proven themselves at AAA yet.

[Frobby]

Ah, back to this topic, eh?

I will say, the players mentioned in the OP are a reasonable asking price, if AGon would agree to an extension as part of the deal. But that's such a huge "if" that it probably isn't worthy of any further discussion.

[OrioleFanatic2008]

If it actually came down to us vs. the Red Sox, it would be pretty tough for our headliners to top theirs.

Say they're package is headlined by Bucholtz and Casey Kelly, wouldn't we potentially need 3 of our prime guys to match or even top that?

[Dr. Andrews]

Who's to say Chris Tillman or Jake Arrieta will fix the pitching? They may not be better than a 4th starter. People are so confident that those two will reach their ceilings and become the next Palmer and Mussina, but what happens if they don't? Aren't they more valuable to us in a trade for a hitter that will give us 5-6+ WAR per season vs. 3-4 combined?

And what good is it having a Palmer or Mussina if they keep losing games 4-2 because the offense is poor?

The Orioles need to improve in both hitting and pitching and acquiring guys like Garrett Atkins and Hank Blalock aren't going to do much for you in the hitting dept.

And it's not like Snyder and Bell are a lock either. Bell is more likely to succeed than Snyder IMO, but neither has proven themselves at AAA yet.

Who's to say that they won't? It goes both ways. When you are THE WORST in a particular area, it seems to me that that area should be addressed...and 1 year of Millwood is not the answer. I know we've had a bad track record recently with pitching prospects, but, to throw them at a 2 year rental that will require the biggest contract ever given by this organization to extend is ridiculous, IMO.

I saw Terry Francona being interviewed at the winter meetings, and stressed the importance of pitching matchups. We don't have one player that I'd feel confident putting against Beckett, Lester, Sabathia, Burnett, Shields, Garza, or Halladay. Last year, those were instant losses, plain and simple.

We need to be balanced to compete and I don't think you get that balance from being the worst in any particular area. To achieve this balance, the pitching situation will require the most attention going forward.

[clarence]

So, you are willing to give up 2 potential long term blue chip prospects to have a guy for 2 years in hopes that we may compete in 1 of them?

My god Jtrea...How on earth can you possibly think that is a smart move?

BTW. Jtrea you are wrong about the "keep away" game...I would rather see the Red Sox lose 4 or 5 top level prospects/ML ready guys and overpay him in an extension...That is better for us.

The fact that he can't grasp this speaks volumes. It's the same reason I want to see one of the yanks or bosox trade for Halladay. One of them has him in 2011, so they might as well lose some top prospects to get him, instead of a bunch of top prospects from outside the division bringing more talent to the ALEast.

[Sports Guy]

How is it good for us when they can just draft replacements for those players or sign international prospects?

Losing prospects does not hurt the Red Sox one bit. The Red Sox have no problems acquiring talent.

The only thing that it will do for us is just make it that much harder to beat them.

This is true but that's the way it goes...The more talent they lose, the better...especially when it is a key part to their rotation.

I think Buchholz could easily be more valuable to the Red Sox over the next 5-8 years compared to AGon.

[JTrea81]

If it actually came down to us vs. the Red Sox, it would be pretty tough for our headliners to top theirs.

Say they're package is headlined by Bucholtz and Casey Kelly, wouldn't we potentially need 3 of our prime guys to match or even top that?

Well that's what the OP was getting at.

The Sox don't have the ML ready talent that the Orioles do.

Tillman, Arrieta/Erbe and Felix Pie for example would be more valuable IMO than a package the Sox could put together because they can all help SD next year.

Casey Kelly is going to pitch full time for the first time next season in A ball. Westmoreland is at least two years away.

Pie can slide into CF now, Tillman can slot into the rotation. Arrieta or Erbe could slide into their bullpen.

[weams]

And Adrian Gonzales could break his jaw in a bar fight...

[Sports Guy]

AGon hadn't even had a WAR of 4 until 2009..which was the season he turned 27..which is still, historically speaking, your peak season.

[JTrea81]

This is true but that's the way it goes...The more talent they lose, the better...especially when it is a key part to their rotation.

I think Buchholz could easily be more valuable to the Red Sox over the next 5-8 years compared to AGon.

Gonzalez is a 5-6+ WAR player.

Buchholz I don't see being more than a 3-4 WAR player at best. Keep in mind Buchholz isn't a spring chicken (26 in August next season). He's likely about to hit his peak very soon as pitchers tend to peak slightly earlier than hitters.

[Sports Guy]

Gonzalez is a 5-6+ WAR player.

Buchholz I don't see being more than a 3-4 WAR player at best. Keep in mind Buchholz isn't a spring chicken (26 in August next season). He's likely about to hit his peak very soon as pitchers tend to peak slightly earlier than hitters.

He has been this ONCE IN HIS CAREER!

Quit acting as if last year was the freaking normal season for AGon!!!!