Padres asking price for Adrian Gonzalez

[weams]

...and what if our pitching doesn't pan out?

Then

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[crawjo]

I would do the deal if Tillman were the centerpiece, but not if Matusz was. I would then immediately set to work extending Gonzalez.

He's worth it because he fills a position of greater need than Tillman does. He's 27 years old, has produced at least a 126 OPS+ each of the last four years, hits for power, gets on base, and plays good defense.

Value-wise I think he's similar to Teixeira, so I'd offer him something in a similar range, maybe 8 years, $160 million. I bet he'd take that.

We'd have our cleanup hitter set until the middle of the next decade. Between the young arms we already have and free agency, I feel confident we could find another #2 starter to replace Tillman.

Matusz I feel has a higher upside and will be a legit TOR in a couple years. I don't trade him for anybody.

[crawjo]

I feel in these conversations people act as if pitching is everything and offense is nothing, or vice versa. The reality is you need your young hitters and your young pitchers to pan out. When you are in the position the Orioles are in, you have to be prepared to take calculated risks with EITHER your young pitchers or your young hitters, depending on the opportunities that present themselves. You can't dogmatically hold onto one to the exclusion of the other just because somebody was once quoted as saying "Grow the arms, buy the bats."

The truth is a Tillman-for-Gonzalez type deal could blow up in the Orioles' faces. Tillman could become an ace and Gonzalez could peak at 29 and be average by 31 and then below average after that, his huge contract an albatross on the neck of the franchise. But damned if I can see a way for this team to ever compete in the AL East without a premier bat somewhere in the infield.

[jdouble777]

I feel in these conversations people act as if pitching is everything and offense is nothing, or vice versa. The reality is you need your young hitters and your young pitchers to pan out. When you are in the position the Orioles are in, you have to be prepared to take calculated risks with EITHER your young pitchers or your young hitters, depending on the opportunities that present themselves. You can't dogmatically hold onto one to the exclusion of the other just because somebody was once quoted as saying "Grow the arms, buy the bats."

The truth is a Tillman-for-Gonzalez type deal could blow up in the Orioles' faces. Tillman could become an ace and Gonzalez could peak at 29 and be average by 31 and then below average after that, his huge contract an albatross on the neck of the franchise. But damned if I can see a way for this team to ever compete in the AL East without a premier bat somewhere in the infield.

I'm pretty sure Weiters is going to be that very soon, Markakis has to be borderline, if Reimold gets better he could be borderline, Jones has every reason to be considered there or close and likely to be so soon... We have bats, we do not have shutdown pitchers. Tillman is also very cheap for a very long time.

[Sports Guy]

You can quip all you want about not wanting to trade our young pitchers, but when you start questioning A-Gon's value you really start to lose your creditability. A-Gon, posted the numbers he did last season in a 1) pitchers park and with 2) absolutely no protection around him in the lineup. Imagine what he could do even in a mediocre lineup.

Read that again...LAST SEASON!

If you want to alk about credibility, let's see some reading comprehension...Prior to LAST SEASON, he hadn't even eclipsed the 4 WAR mark.

There is nothing saying he will continue to be as good as last season, even if he leaves Petco.

Last year, he saw his BB % jump almost 8%...That isn't a level he will likely keep up..You talk about him in a mediocre lineup...That actually helped his OBP a lot.

People talk about Petco..Well, his HR/FB % this pasts eason was a very high 22%..What happens to that level?

I think AGon is a very solid player but he has become GREATLY overrated on this board...He just came off his 27 y/o season which, despite what people want to believe and think, is still the season where a lot of players peak...He may never see another season like he did last year...You can not pay for him, both in terms of prospects AND salary, based on his 2009 season...That's when you get stuck into terrible long term deals and shake your head at the loss of all the players that went on to become solid contributors.

So, next time you want to question someone's credibility, come to the table with some knowledge of the situation.

[MrOrange82]

Read that again...LAST SEASON!

If you want to alk about credibility, let's see some reading comprehension...Prior to LAST SEASON, he hadn't even eclipsed the 4 WAR mark.

There is nothing saying he will continue to be as good as last season, even if he leaves Petco.

Last year, he saw his BB % jump almost 8%...That isn't a level he will likely keep up..You talk about him in a mediocre lineup...That actually helped his OBP a lot.

People talk about Petco..Well, his HR/FB % this pasts eason was a very high 22%..What happens to that level?

I think AGon is a very solid player but he has become GREATLY overrated on this board...He just came off his 27 y/o season which, despite what people want to believe and think, is still the season where a lot of players peak...He may never see another season like he did last year...You can not pay for him, both in terms of prospects AND salary, based on his 2009 season...That's when you get stuck into terrible long term deals and shake your head at the loss of all the players that went on to become solid contributors.

So, next time you want to question someone's credibility, come to the table with some knowledge of the situation.

One thing that strikes me as interesting...compare AGon's 25-27 y/o seasons to Aubrey Huff's. AGon's demonstrate slightly more power, but considering everything else...

I'm not saying that AGon is going to wind up with a Huff-like career. Just agreeing with the above, and reiterating that AGon should NOT be included in the category of players that includes Teixeira, et al. Given the players it'd likely take to pry him away from the Padres, AGon simply isn't worth the Orioles' time, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

One thing that strikes me as interesting...compare AGon's 25-27 y/o seasons to Aubrey Huff's. AGon's demonstrate slightly more power, but considering everything else...

I'm not saying that AGon is going to wind up with a Huff-like career. Just agreeing with the above, and reiterating that AGon should NOT be included in the category of players that includes Teixeira, et al. Given the players it'd likely take to pry him away from the Padres, AGon simply isn't worth the Orioles' time, IMO.

The thing that cracks me up about all of this is that people simply aren't using their heads...If the Orioles are willing to give up 4-5 good young players, spearheaded by Tillman, then they can get a better player than AGOn and one under team control for longer.

Even if guys aren't theoretically available, when you are offering big time packages, all of a sudden, guys magically are available.

[crawjo]

I'm pretty sure Weiters is going to be that very soon, Markakis has to be borderline, if Reimold gets better he could be borderline, Jones has every reason to be considered there or close and likely to be so soon... We have bats, we do not have shutdown pitchers. Tillman is also very cheap for a very long time.

I meant in addition to Wieters. Wieters has to get there as well. Look at the offenses that power Boston and New York. Now look at Baltimore. We need premier bats at multiple positions if we are going to compete.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Jones becomes a premier bat. I doubt he ever has a better season than Markakis did in 2008. Markakis I think can become a very solid .320/.400/.490 type hitter in his career, but this club still needs somebody who can get on base AND mash, and it has to be prepared to pay through the nose if necessary for it.

[crawjo]

One thing that strikes me as interesting...compare AGon's 25-27 y/o seasons to Aubrey Huff's. AGon's demonstrate slightly more power, but considering everything else...

Huff never drew anything close to 119 walks in a season, as Gonzalez did last year.

[MrOrange82]

The thing that cracks me up about all of this is that people simply aren't using their heads...If the Orioles are willing to give up 4-5 good young players, spearheaded by Tillman, then they can get a better player than AGOn and one under team control for longer.

Even if guys aren't theoretically available, when you are offering big time packages, all of a sudden, guys magically are available.

I'd agree. I think Tillman might've lost a little luster with Oriole fans last season because he didn't perform as well as Matusz during his audition. We're all so afraid of being caught holding the proverbial bag again (like with Matt Riley and so many others)...

Put together a package like Tillman, Snyder, Pie and Erbe/?/?, and I'd wager that most major league teams would, at least, blink, regardless of who we were asking for in exchange, especially if we're just talking about getting back a single player.

AGon, good as he is, isn't worth the combination of players listed above, plain and simple.

[MrOrange82]

Huff never drew anything close to 119 walks in a season, as Gonzalez did last year.

Point wasn't that AGon is no better than Huff, point was that AGon's true value probably falls somewhere in between players like Huff and the real difference makers we'd like to see the Orioles acquire.

AGon is a solid player. The cost/benefit of acquiring him, however, favors not acquiring him, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Huff never drew anything close to 119 walks in a season, as Gonzalez did last year.

You wanna know who else never came close to 119 walks prior to last year? AGON!

He had a spike in his BB rate ala Nick did in 2008 and we saw how much that came down.

AGon was usually a 360ish OPS guy...You are trading a boatload for the 407 OBP guy...You are trading for a 550 slugging guy...he was never really better than 500 before.

Do you not see the problem here?

[wildbillhiccup]

Read that again...LAST SEASON!

If you want to alk about credibility, let's see some reading comprehension...Prior to LAST SEASON, he hadn't even eclipsed the 4 WAR mark.

There is nothing saying he will continue to be as good as last season, even if he leaves Petco.

Last year, he saw his BB % jump almost 8%...That isn't a level he will likely keep up..You talk about him in a mediocre lineup...That actually helped his OBP a lot.

People talk about Petco..Well, his HR/FB % this pasts eason was a very high 22%..What happens to that level?

I think AGon is a very solid player but he has become GREATLY overrated on this board...He just came off his 27 y/o season which, despite what people want to believe and think, is still the season where a lot of players peak...He may never see another season like he did last year...You can not pay for him, both in terms of prospects AND salary, based on his 2009 season...That's when you get stuck into terrible long term deals and shake your head at the loss of all the players that went on to become solid contributors.

So, next time you want to question someone's credibility, come to the table with some knowledge of the situation.

Did you just gave me the proverbial hand without even citing a single tangible fact to support your argument? A-Gon's respective hr/rbi numbers over the last three seasons -30/100, 36/119 and 40/99. Even if he regresses a bit he's still going to be a lock for 35/100 (with a solid batting avg) for years to come.

And you're going to have to do better then "despite what other people believe" to make a case that most players still peak at 27 years old. Even if that's true, I'd counter with the fact that good players are now productive for a longer period of time, given advances in training, medical treatment, etc. And did you just really try to argue that A-Gon's A-Gon was literally pitched around every AB. It's amazing he was even able to post the numbers he did. Sure, his walks might come down a bit if he's playing in a better lineup, but we're also likely to see a spike in his power numbers because he'll be seeing better pitches to hit. And just think of how much better he'll make the players hitting in front of him...

If you don't think it's in our best interest to trade young pitching for A-Gon or to trade for A-Gon in general that's fine. Heck, my personal thoughts are we'd be better off shopping Ad.Jones or Markakis to the Pads for him, based on our OF depth, but to question his productivity is a bit "out there:. If I had to compare A-Gon to a player of yesteryear, it would be Palmeiro, with the potential to be better. I think we'd all be ectastic to have Palmeiro, in his prime, batting clean-up for the Os in 2010.

[MithrilRider]

I'm with SG and the anti-acquiring Gonzalez crowd. I don't get why people think one meaningful year of him is worth giving up what it would take to get him. We aren't sniffing the playoffs next year so it doesn't matter that much to me in the long run what he contributes to this team in 2010. He's hitting free agency after 2011, no way he doesn't test those waters. I guess some people are just impatient and need that big splash, but I don't want to give up all those years of control on the guys to get him when over the next 2 years he isn't going to help us in the grand scheme of things. People have to see the big picture. Even if, for those 2 years, he is the guy he was last year, I don't think it's worth acquiring him.

[CumberlandFan]

*************disregard this post, I made some stupid remarks.