Padres asking price for Adrian Gonzalez

[El Gordo]

The problem is that SP is so ephemeral that you need 3-4 top prospects to equal the value of a good position player. We are building around pitching. We simply don't have enough SP to trade for a good position player yet. If a couple of these guys emerge as TOR SP, then one good young SP can get you a good position player.

[Sports Guy]

Actually he hit 40 this season playing for the Pads in a pitchers park.

With a very high HR/FB%...Will he be able to sustain a level that lucky?

Nick had 20 homers & 87 RBIs in 2008

And 18 Homers & 101 RBIs this season

Gonzalez had 36 Homer & 119 RBIs in 2008 (16 more Home runs & 32 more RBI)

and this season 40 Homers & 99 Rbis (a little low but his slg % was 510 ..so I suspect he batted often with the bases empty)

In fact his SLG has been .500 the past 4 seasons. Its funny Nick hasnt had a .500 SLG since hes been in the majors.

SG I cant believe your trying to argue that Nick is a comparable player to Gonzalez ...It just isnt true. Dont argue the OPS with me because Gonzalez's job is ti hit homers & drive in runs.

You can put all of these stats out there...and you can discount the combo of defense and offensive stats like WAR but the bottom line is Markakis was worth more in 2008 than AGon was in 2009....And Nick was younger, had more service time, etc...

I am sure none of that matter because you are looking for that big homer number and ignoring the overall game but you are wrong on who was more valuable for his team in those years.

[Roll Tide]

The problem is that SP is so ephemeral that you need 3-4 top prospects to equal the value of a good position player. We are building around pitching. We simply don't have enough SP to trade for a good position player yet. If a couple of these guys emerge as TOR SP, then one good young SP can get you a good position player.

I dont disagree that it wouldnt be expensive. And is it thr right time.

I know AM doesnt want to ...But I wouldnt give up any of Tillman, Matusz, or Britton.

I'd offer a group that starts with

Jones, Guthrie, Snyder , & say C+ arm .... Jones would be valuable to them in return as hes from San Diego & would be a good draw. It would be a popular move for the fans.

I'd move Pie to CF & Leave Reimold in LF. Id them make Montanez the 4th OF or sign a 4th OF if I thought I could get a better one.

We can afford to lose a little in the OF as its over loaded. I've read AMs comment as most everyone here has.... I just believe most of what he says is for negotiating posture.

Id rather have Pie in CF & Gonzalez at 1B ...Than have Jones at CF ...Pie the 4th OF & some marginal guy at 1B ...By Marginal I mean a non power bat.

[crawjo]

For those who want AGon...Would you have dealt Tillman, Erbe, Snyder, Pie and Mickolio for Markakis after his 6.3 WAR season of 2008?

It's not about WAR. It's about addressing a position of NEED. Snyder is never going to have the bat to play first base regularly at the ML level. That's my assessment. I mean, if San Diego was higher on Jones than on Pie, I would see if I could swap Jones for Pie and then save maybe Erbe and Mickolio from the deal. And I don't DO the deal unless I sign Gonzalez to an extension as a condition to the trade, like what the Mets did with Santana a couple years ago.

We can keep talking around this in circles over and over again but this is all about assessment of talent. You are obviously lower on Gonzalez than I am, and higher on Tillman than I am. So debating the productiveness of this trade is pointless.

Is there anyone out there now that could be available in a trade that you would be willing to trade Tillman for? Or do you regard him as untouchable?

[Sports Guy]

It's not about WAR. It's about addressing a position of NEED. Snyder is never going to have the bat to play first base regularly at the ML level. That's my assessment. I mean, if San Diego was higher on Jones than on Pie, I would see if I could swap Jones for Pie and then save maybe Erbe and Mickolio from the deal. And I don't DO the deal unless I sign Gonzalez to an extension as a condition to the trade, like what the Mets did with Santana a couple years ago.

We can keep talking around this in circles over and over again but this is all about assessment of talent. You are obviously lower on Gonzalez than I am, and higher on Tillman than I am. So debating the productiveness of this trade is pointless.

Is there anyone out there now that could be available in a trade that you would be willing to trade Tillman for? Or do you regard him as untouchable?

I would consider moving Tillman for a guy that gives us 3+ years of service time.

For example, I would probably move Tillman in a deal for Votto...but there aren't many guys out there that I would move Tillman for.

[Singleton]

I dont disagree that it wouldnt be expensive. And is it thr right time.

I know AM doesnt want to ...But I wouldnt give up any of Tillman, Matusz, or Britton.

I'd offer a group that starts with

Jones, Guthrie, Snyder , & say C+ arm .... Jones would be valuable to them in return as hes from San Diego & would be a good draw. It would be a popular move for the fans.

I'd move Pie to CF & Leave Reimold in LF. Id them make Montanez the 4th OF or sign a 4th OF if I thought I could get a better one.

We can afford to lose a little in the OF as its over loaded. I've read AMs comment as most everyone here has.... I just believe most of what he says is for negotiating posture.

Id rather have Pie in CF & Gonzalez at 1B ...Than have Jones at CF ...Pie the 4th OF & some marginal guy at 1B ...By Marginal I mean a non power bat.

I doubt your offer is close to getting the deal done. They have Agonz under control for the next couple of years. A Jones will be arb eligible so he will not be chea beyond this year and the other players you offer aren't that exciting. They want youth and high level talent.

[GoldGlove21]

Well, you can be awed by those 36 homers but Nick was a more valuable player in 2008 than AGon was in 2009...Nick was also much younger and under control for a lot longer...ie much cheaper.

I hope the argument isn't that Nick was more valuable based on WAR.

According to Fan Graphs, based on Trade Value (posted on July 15, 2009):

#35: Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore: 0.5 WAR

After a monster 2008, his follow-up season hasn’t gone as well – his walks and power are down, and UZR no longer loves his defense in right field. The talent is still there, though, and as a 25-year-old with across the board skills, he’ll have more seasons like his 2008 in the future. The contract extension he signed will keep him in Baltimore through at least 2014, and while he’s no longer cheap, the salaries are discounted enough to still make him a big time asset.

#45: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego: 2.9 WAR

How different would the perception of Gonzalez be if he didn’t play half his games in a cavern? He’s posting a .273 ISO despite playing in the best pitchers park in baseball and rarely getting a pitch to hit because his teammates are so inferior. Oh, and then, there’s his contract – he’s set to make just $13 million through 2011. The Padres fans would riot if they dealt him, but his value will never be higher than it is now.

It is important to note the following players and their rank:

4.) Albert Pujols

5.) Matt Wieters

16. Joe Mauer

17.) Felix Hernandez

19.) Adam Jones

29.) Clayton Kershaw

35.) Nick Markakis

38.) Clay Buchholz

40.) Tommy Hanson

43.) Ryan Zimmerman

45.) Adrian Gonzalez

The system here is flawed for me because it doesn't combine fielding and hitting stats and puts a great emphasis on salary. In reality Pujols is an upgrade at first over just about anyone in the game and same can be said for Mauer at catcher. A guy like Wieters or Blanks can save you money at a key position, but if you do not spend that money on additional players then what have you really upgraded except the the owners bank roll? If you went by WAR for both then Gonzalez posted a combined WAR of 6.3 ($28.3M) and Markakis posted a combined WAR of 2.2 ($9.9M) according to Fan Graphs. The only first baseman worth more in 2009 were Pujols (8.4) and Fielder (6.8).

I will say this again, the Orioles will have one of the youngest (if not the youngest) teams in baseball for the next 2 years. You have severall players set to earn close to the league minimum this year and a few more that will earn less than $1M (Upwards of 18 of these players depending on how things shake out). If you were ever going to snag a key player and pay a huge portion of his contract up front, now would be the time to do it so additional players can be signed towards the end of the contract. It makes it easier to get good value for a player if he is owed less when you are trying to deal him.

I do not care how the Orioles do it, but pretending like they are shocked at free agent asking prices or the prices of good players via trade is not helping us. Andy MacPhail said that he almost did something stupid and had to step away from teh situation before making a mistake. I wonder what he was talking about when he made that statement.

[JTrea81]

Andy MacPhail said that he almost did something stupid and had to step away from teh situation before making a mistake. I wonder what he was talking about when he made that statement.

I think he was referring to almost letting Wieters walk and taking the comp pick. Peter Angelos stepped in and got that deal done IIRC.

[GoldGlove21]

I dont disagree that it wouldnt be expensive. And is it thr right time.

I know AM doesnt want to ...But I wouldnt give up any of Tillman, Matusz, or Britton.

I'd offer a group that starts with

Jones, Guthrie, Snyder , & say C+ arm .... Jones would be valuable to them in return as hes from San Diego & would be a good draw. It would be a popular move for the fans.

I'd move Pie to CF & Leave Reimold in LF. Id them make Montanez the 4th OF or sign a 4th OF if I thought I could get a better one.

We can afford to lose a little in the OF as its over loaded. I've read AMs comment as most everyone here has.... I just believe most of what he says is for negotiating posture.

Id rather have Pie in CF & Gonzalez at 1B ...Than have Jones at CF ...Pie the 4th OF & some marginal guy at 1B ...By Marginal I mean a non power bat.

Ok, I am all for giving up a Tillman who could be something special or average depending on how things play out, a guy like Snyder who would just be a prospect replacement for the position you just traded, a guy like Pie who is currently a 4th outfielder for us, and maybe a guy like Erbe or Hernandez (If it got the deal done), but I am not giving up Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, or Bell (Unless Beltre was signed).

After TB was defeated in the playoffs a few years ago the Rays went out and required the great Pat Burrell as a big time bat and look where that got them. The Rays caught lightning in a bottle with their young guys and teams like Boston and New York took notice and started to try and upgrade their team to compete in a division that is growing in parity and competiveness. That being said, does anyone really think that the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays have a chance when the Red Sox and Yankees are working to add additions like Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, and Matt Holliday? I just do not like our odds if we are waiting for our guys to develop to competive levels before making moves. By then you have to deal with extending your own players and now you have money tied up in veterans and young players. The Orioles should be getting those veterans now so they can make a run from 2010-2014. By then many of your young guys are likely to becomes expensive so something has to give.

[GoldGlove21]

I think he was referring to almost letting Wieters walk and taking the comp pick. Peter Angelos stepped in and got that deal done IIRC.

That is a solid guess, but the Orioles could have turned around and selected Matusz and Smoak back to back which would have worked out fairly well too.

[GoldGlove21]

It's not about WAR. It's about addressing a position of NEED. Snyder is never going to have the bat to play first base regularly at the ML level. That's my assessment. I mean, if San Diego was higher on Jones than on Pie, I would see if I could swap Jones for Pie and then save maybe Erbe and Mickolio from the deal. And I don't DO the deal unless I sign Gonzalez to an extension as a condition to the trade, like what the Mets did with Santana a couple years ago.

We can keep talking around this in circles over and over again but this is all about assessment of talent. You are obviously lower on Gonzalez than I am, and higher on Tillman than I am. So debating the productiveness of this trade is pointless.

Is there anyone out there now that could be available in a trade that you would be willing to trade Tillman for? Or do you regard him as untouchable?

There are a lot of players I would trade Tillman for if we were guaranteed an extension.

Votto

Fielder

Gonzalez

Mauer

Pujols

R. Howard

H. Ramirez

Clayton Kershaw

Zach Greinke

Feliz Hernandez

Yovanni Gallardo

Justin Smoak

Ryan Braun

Evan Longoria

David Wright

Zimmerman

Lester

Josh Johnson

CC Sabathia

Lincecum

Strasburg

That is just off of the top of my head.

[NJOriolesFan]

You don't go and get the "final piece" before the other pieces are in place. We are building the right way and need to be a little more patient.

It's not like we are trying to build a team to compete in the AL West. We need one that will sustain long term success competing with the Red Sox and Yankees.

[JTrea81]

You don't go and get the "final piece" before the other pieces are in place. We are building the right way and need to be a little more patient.

It's not like we are trying to build a team to compete in the AL West. We need one that will sustain long term success competing with the Red Sox and Yankees.

Why does Gonzalez have to be the final piece?

I would argue a player like a Jose Reyes or a Jimmy Rollins could be the final piece in 2012.

[NJOriolesFan]

I didn't mean you don't go and acquire that player but you don't trade away some of your best chips when Gonzalez MAY not be the ideal piece when everything else aligns itself.

[Roll Tide]

You don't go and get the "final piece" before the other pieces are in place. We are building the right way and need to be a little more patient.

It's not like we are trying to build a team to compete in the AL West. We need one that will sustain long term success competing with the Red Sox and Yankees.

We need to get some of the best available talent when its available. The Orioles have a gross of pitching talent & 2 potential star CF guys..... They have a good 3B candidate thats nearing the show. But as far as organizational depth most of our postion prospects are mediocre.