Big 10 wants to expand

[Birds of B'more]

I wasn't sure in what forum to put this, but since the Big 10 is historically a football conference, and expansion will most likely happen with football revenues in mind, this seemed most appropriate. Now the big question is, whom? I think they will once again make the first call to Notre Dame, and Notre Dame will again say "no." After that, there seem to be several logical choices. The two that make the most sense are Pittsburgh and Missouri. Both of them seem to fit the profile athletically and geographically. Academics seem to play a role with the Big 10, and Pitt has an edge there. But Missouri would pull in fans/viewers from a larger market, something to consider with the Big 10 Network. Either way, I would guess that either of those two schools would jump at the chance if invited to join. Here are some other schools I've heard mentioned, but I suspect they would be less likely candidates than the aforementioned two.

Rutgers - NYC market is a draw, academics are good, and Joe Pa has been an advocate for adding them...but they really don't bring much in terms of prestige in either football or basketball.

Syracuse - If Boeheim has as much pull as I think he does, Syracuse won't want to leave the Big East...and while they have some history, their football program has been a joke the past decade.

Maryland - Maryland would be a nice addition as far as a large media market that the conference does not have a reach in yet, and they fit academically...but the Terps don't add much football-wise and basketball-wise it's unlikely MD would want to leave the ACC for the Big 10.

Kentucky - Like MD, they are a basketball school...but being in the SEC they probably get good money from shared football revenues and may not want to give that up. They geographically fit in, but currently rank lower than all other Big 10 schools academically. No major media market within state borders either.

West Virginia - Athletically they would appear to be a nice fit. But academically they aren't up to Big 10 standards and they don't add a significant media market.

Nebraska - Great football tradition, nothing hoops-wise. No big media markets. And doubt NEB would want to break up their traditional football rivalries anyway.

And, of course, if the Big 10 poaches a team already in a BCS conference, that will certainly set off a ripple effect of expansion, starting with the conference that loses a member to the Big 10. I think if Missouri goes, then the Big 12 has an easy choice to replace them....TCU (which is who they should have invited way back in the beginning instead of Baylor). If the Big East loses Pitt, then a replacement is not so obvious for them. For football, they needed to expand anyway....but the Big East always has been and always will be a basketball conference, so if they lose one member from their 16-team conference they can really only replace them with one new school. For football purposes, East Carolina or Central Florida might make sense. Or maybe they could consider bringing Temple back, this time as a full member, since Al Golden seems to be doing a nice job of finally building a football program there.

[JamesI]

I can safely say Syracuse won't leave the Big East, but Pitt or West Virginia could.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Notre Dame makes way too much sense. The Big 10 will have to call them again once their exclusive TV contract with NBC expires.

[ShaneDawg85]

Notre Dame makes sense but I just can't see them joining a conference. Unless NBC gets tired of them and throws up their hands because they aren't "Notre Dame" anymore, if the independent tv contract is there Notre Dame isn't joining a conference.

Might Kansas be another option? They have less success than the other schools, and I don't know about their academics, since the Big Ten is big on that. But they've been a program bubbling under the surface, save for 2007, and if Turner Gill can take them to the next level they could be a program on the rise. Lets also face the reality that the Big 12 is always going to be about Texas, Oklahoma, and sooner or later, again, Nebraska. Every few years you might get a Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, or Missouri who can throw a wrench in there, but it's pretty much going to come down to those three schools.

The traditional rivalries more than likely play a part in whether or not a school would want to leave, which is something Missouri might possibly lose by leaving the Big 12, specifically against Nebraska. But at the same time, if a school really wanted to keep it's rivalry going, I'm sure they wouldn't let changing conferences get in the way. There's no way Kansas and Missouri won't play every year. Not a chance.

Is it possible for schools to play a sport in one conference and play another sport in a different conference? Notre Dame is an independent in football, but play in the Big East in basketball. Or is this just a short list of examples?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Colin Cowherd made an excellent argument for Rutgers, surrounded by the fact that the Big 10 would gain a slice of the NYC market.

[PaulBako]

Colin Cowherd made an excellent argument

Is that the first time???!!!!

[Birds of B'more]

Notre Dame makes sense but I just can't see them joining a conference. Unless NBC gets tired of them and throws up their hands because they aren't "Notre Dame" anymore, if the independent tv contract is there Notre Dame isn't joining a conference.

Might Kansas be another option? They have less success than the other schools, and I don't know about their academics, since the Big Ten is big on that. But they've been a program bubbling under the surface, save for 2007, and if Turner Gill can take them to the next level they could be a program on the rise. Lets also face the reality that the Big 12 is always going to be about Texas, Oklahoma, and sooner or later, again, Nebraska. Every few years you might get a Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, or Missouri who can throw a wrench in there, but it's pretty much going to come down to those three schools.

The traditional rivalries more than likely play a part in whether or not a school would want to leave, which is something Missouri might possibly lose by leaving the Big 12, specifically against Nebraska. But at the same time, if a school really wanted to keep it's rivalry going, I'm sure they wouldn't let changing conferences get in the way. There's no way Kansas and Missouri won't play every year. Not a chance.

Is it possible for schools to play a sport in one conference and play another sport in a different conference? Notre Dame is an independent in football, but play in the Big East in basketball. Or is this just a short list of examples?

I doubt it. Geographically Kansas doesn't fit and it wouldn't add as many TV homes as Missouri for the BTN. That's the same reason that I doubt they'd add Nebraska. And whomever the Big 10 invites, they will have to become a full-member in all sports, or they won't be invited.

I'm still thinking it's either Pitt or Missouri, with Syracuse and Rutgers a possibility too but slimmer chances.

[Birds of B'more]

Is that the first time???!!!!

I'm checking all the headlines to see if hell froze over.

[VThokies]

When I first saw the headline, I thought Pitt was the obvious choice.

But if we are discussing Nebraska, Kansas, etc. from the Big12, why wouldn't Iowa State be a better choice? It doesn't expand your TV/Recruiting markets, but you get the Cy-Hawk rivalry game inconference. I remember that being a motivation to add VT to the ACC, so I don't see why it wouldn't be considered here..

[RShack]

Notre Dame makes sense but I just can't see them joining a conference. Unless NBC gets tired of them and throws up their hands because they aren't "Notre Dame" anymore, if the independent tv contract is there Notre Dame isn't joining a conference.

I bet NBC isn't thrilled with the ND contract. Anybody know how long it lasts?

ND is the obvious match for the Big 10. In fact, I think they once had serious discussions about making ND part of the Big 10 about basketball and other sports, just not football. The only bad thing about it is that it would prevent ND from playing teams from all over, which they have traditionally been pretty good about doing.

[Birds of B'more]

I bet NBC isn't thrilled with the ND contract. Anybody know how long it lasts?

ND is the obvious match for the Big 10. In fact, I think they once had serious discussions about making ND part of the Big 10 about basketball and other sports, just not football. The only bad thing about it is that it would prevent ND from playing teams from all over, which they have traditionally been pretty good about doing.

It goes through the 2015 season. I have no idea what the ratings have looked like the past two seasons, but it was renewed right after the 3-9 season in 2007, and ratings did take a hit that year.

The TV ratings last year, when Notre Dame went 3-9, averaged a 1.9 rating and a five share, down from an average ratings of 3.0 and a seven share in 2006 when they were 10-3 and ranked No. 17 and a 3.6 rating and a nine share in 2005 when they were 9-3 and No. 9. The previous low ratings for Notre Dame football on NBC were 2.4 ratings and six shares in both 2003, when the Irish finished 5-7, and 2001, when they finished 5-6.

My opinion, unless Notre Dame returns to being a premiere team in college football (and I don't see it happening in the current environment) then the ratings will probably continue to decline, but will do so very slowly. ND does not have mass appeal to younger audiences who have no recollection of their glory days. Maybe some younger people follow them because older members of their family do, but even that won't keep up if they have year-after-year of mediocre seasons. But the large national following that they do currently have will probably remain mostly loyal and might be enough for NBC to re-up again in a few years. Plus, we can't forget there is a significant legion of fans who tune in to NBC because they despise ND and simply enjoy watching them lose....think of it is O's fans tuning into YES via MLBTV.com or MLBEI during a season when the Yankees are on their way to losing 100 games.

That said, Notre Dame tends to be rather myopic when it comes to their football....so I think they probably expect that they will win at least five national titles in the next decade, will have multiple Heisman winners over the same period, and that the cash flow from NBC will go on forever. Therefore, any overtures about joining the Big 10 over the next year or so will be summarily dismissed in South Bend.

[Birds of B'more]

Notre Dame unlikely Big Ten candidate

The Big Ten's decision to study expansion brings back an oft-asked question -- would Notre Dame consider joining the conference, which includes a number of its regional football rivals?

The answer is no, athletic director Jack Swarbrick says, according to the Chicago Tribune.

No surprise there, although I did fond this part a bit surprising.

Swarbrick acknowledged that the major football conferences make even more money from their own media contracts than the $9 million Notre Dame is paid annually by NBC for football rights. Big Ten schools receive about $20 million a year in TV and radio rights fees, according to the report.

But Swarbrick said the football program considers factors other than revenue, according to the Tribune.

"All of this has a lot more to do with our priorities than it does with business issues," Swarbrick said, according to the Tribune. "Our independence is tied up in a lot of the rivalries we have. We play Navy every year and have the tradition of USC weekends. Frankly, it works pretty well to play USC in October at home and in November at their place."

If true, that tells me that perhaps there is a point when Notre Dame will have to join a conference (as a full member) as the cost of operating all college athletics programs continue to increase. But I had always thought they were making more money from NBC than they ever would by sharing the pie in the Big 10.

[FanSince88]

It would make lots of sense for ND to join the Big Ten. This would be a great time for them to do it. Lots of their big rivalries are with the Big Ten anyway (Mich and Mich St.), and nothing's stopping them from continuing their Navy, USC or Pitt series. It would be a supreme act of hubris on their part to decline, and it's sad that's what everyone's expecting them to do.

[FanSince88]

I'm a Pitt fan and I for one enjoy seeing Pitt in the Big East. It has been great for the basketball program. I find the Big East much more interesting than the Big Ten in both basketball and football. Big Ten football bores me, quite frankly. It's too traditional. In the Big East there are lots of lean, hungry, up and coming teams from major cities that are willing to try just about everything to get wins. It's an exciting place to be. The Big Ten is too set in their ways. I've never been a fan of bloated state universities (athletically or academically), and that's what the Big Ten is all about. By contrast, Big East schools are more the "city" colleges with stronger local roots. I'm more in favor of that.

[RShack]

Swarbrick acknowledged that the major football conferences make even more money from their own media contracts than the $9 million Notre Dame is paid annually by NBC for football rights. Big Ten schools receive about $20 million a year in TV and radio rights fees, according to the report.

Well, hell, if that's really true, then not joining the Big 10 is just about ND getting over their damaged pride. This reminds me of how Bama boosters and fans screwed up the Tide's program for 25 years waiting for the next guy whose voice sounded gravelly like Bear Bryant's voice, instead of accepting that an era had passed and that they needed to do things differently if they wanted to climb back to the top. (They wouldn't even give Bobby Bowden a freaking interview, and coaching Bama was his big goal in life.)

The only disadvantage to joining the Big 10 that I can see is that it might cost ND their traditional polling advantage. If they're pretty good, they seem to get an extra 5 or 6 spots in the polls just for being ND. If they got good again, and had the same record as a few other schools who were in the hunt for the BCS title game, they'd likely get one of the two slots that matter, just because they're ND. Not sure if that would happen if they were in the BCS system as part of the Big 10 and thus had to win the Big 10 just to get a Rose Bowl spot...