Red Sox Working Hard for A-Gon. Why Not Us?

[GoldGlove21]

This reminds me of the rumors that we might trade Roberts for Chris Getz and Gavin Floyd of the White Sox before we signed him to an extension.

The fact that Gavin Floyd was from Maryland somehow made it easier to gloss over his poor peripheral stats and the multiple indications he was due for a regression.

We can only hope the Padres' Front Office is so deluded.

Except that Gavin Floyd's numbers stayed pretty consistant from 2008-2009. Here are his numbers in that time span.

28-19

399 IP

3.90 ERA

308K/129BB

1.24 WHIP

To put that into perspective here are John Lackey's numbers over that same time period.

23-13

239 IP

3.80 ERA

269K/87BB

1.25 WHIP

I am not saying Floyd is an ace by any sense of the imagination, but if his numbers compare to Lackey's over the last 2 years and Lackey just landed a 5/$82.5M deal it would be wrong to assume Floyd was a bust.

Getz on the other hand look like a bench player who can spot start at second right now and his numbers are more likely to increase as he gains experience. I do not recall anyone saying he would ever be in Brian Roberts category, but he is not useless either.

If you tried to trade Roberts and Floyd today, who would garner the most in a trade?

[Capn Vivi]

Not a fan of Jones? I really don't want to trade him, would much prefer to get the Padres to take Pie or Reimold instead, but I'm thinking his local connection might make him extra coveted.

Well, I am a fan of Jones, but I'm also a fan of Pie. We all agree that Pie is a great defender, perhaps a better defender than Jones, but Pie does not have a Gold Glove, eh? Pie is also not an All-star.

I'm an advocate of trading players when their value is at it's peak. For example, if the Padres covet Jones because he's a Gold Glove, All Star CF, then perhaps they'd be willing to take less for Gonzalez if he's in the deal? I'd do something like Bergesen/Jones for Gonzalez only for the reason that their value as trade commodities is extremely high. Tillman's value is his prospect status and retaining him is an indication in our own faith that he can develop. Trading him based on his value as a prospect may necessitate other pieces being added to the deal.

Pie, on the other hand, has relatively little trade value, though the talent margin between he and Jones may be very small.

While I agree Buchholz is overrated, he has thrown a no-hitter in the Majors. What has Tillman done? We have to keep in mind that other teams are courting the Padres for Gonzalez' services.

Reimold I like quite a bit, I don't think he's really developed enough of a reputation in the Majors to be a reasonable #2 piece in a deal for Gonzalez, though. His trade value still has room to increase.

[GoldGlove21]

Not a fan of Jones? I really don't want to trade him, would much prefer to get the Padres to take Pie or Reimold instead, but I'm thinking his local connection might make him extra coveted.

If they do covet him more than the second and third players in the deal should decrease as well. If you want Jones, then you get Snyder as the second prospect in the deal, and possibly a guy like Erbe as the third part of the deal. If the Orioles do give up Jones and Tillman (I wouldn't) for Gonzalez then they better get an extension window and there should not be anything more than a low level guy like Avery added to the deal as the third player.

[GoldGlove21]

Well, I am a fan of Jones, but I'm also a fan of Pie. We all agree that Pie is a great defender, perhaps a better defender than Jones, but Pie does not have a Gold Glove, eh? Pie is also not an All-star.

I'm an advocate of trading players when their value is at it's peak. For example, if the Padres covet Jones because he's a Gold Glove, All Star CF, then perhaps they'd be willing to take less for Gonzalez if he's in the deal? I'd do something like Bergesen/Jones for Gonzalez only for the reason that their value as trade commodities is extremely high. Tillman's value is his prospect status and retaining him is an indication in our own faith that he can develop. Trading him based on his value as a prospect may necessitate other pieces being added to the deal.

Pie, on the other hand, has relatively little trade value, though the talent margin between he and Jones may be very small.

While I agree Buchholz is overrated, he has thrown a no-hitter in the Majors. What has Tillman done? We have to keep in mind that other teams are courting the Padres for Gonzalez' services.

Reimold I like quite a bit, I don't think he's really developed enough of a reputation in the Majors to be a reasonable #2 piece in a deal for Gonzalez, though. His trade value still has room to increase.

Other teams may be able to offer players like Buchholz, but if the Padres want a young centerfielder in addition to a high upside young starter then they are going to be limited in terms of suitors. A team also has to have minor league depth to make the deal as well as the financial resources to extend said player. My list of players would be short:

Baltimore

Boston

LA Angels

LA Dodgers

NY Mets

The Angels no longer have the minor league system they used to have. Thye have some young arms, but no centerfielder (Matthews is expensive).

The Mets would likely have to give up a guy's like Maine, Wilmer Flores, plus an additional prospect or two. Maine would need an extension in the next two years and he will not be cheap if he performs well. This deal leaves them without the young outfield help the Padres really need.

I do not think the Dodgers are giving up Kershaw.

This really would come down to Boston and Baltimore. Boston seems reluctant to part with their young centerfielder and Baltimore is the only team I can think of that has two young centerfielders with high upsides. San Diego can ask for the moon and if they do not get it they could end up with nothing for two more years of Gonzalez. He will likely be a type A and draft picks are far from certain and often take years to develop.

[Capn Vivi]

Except that Gavin Floyd's numbers stayed pretty consistant from 2008-2009. Here are his numbers in that time span.

28-19

399 IP

3.90 ERA

308K/129BB

1.24 WHIP

To put that into perspective here are John Lackey's numbers over that same time period.

23-13

239 IP

3.80 ERA

269K/87BB

1.25 WHIP

I am not saying Floyd is an ace by any sense of the imagination, but if his numbers compare to Lackey's over the last 2 years and Lackey just landed a 5/$82.5M deal it would be wrong to assume Floyd was a bust.

If you tried to trade Roberts and Floyd today, who would garner the most in a trade?

Floyd definitely had a good 2009, and certainly his value has improved. However, his K/9 improved from 6.3 in 08 to 7.6 in 09. He also improved his SO/BB rate from 2.07 in 08 to 2.76 in 09. These are healthy indications for his future as a Major League starter, as I'm sure you're aware.

Right now, I think Roberts' contact is something of an albatross, but even discounting that, Floyd probably has more value as a starter right now.

That doesn't discount the fact that Floyd had some very suspect/lucky stats after 2008. Of course, if we could decide to make a trade only after seeing the player's statistics for the next year, it would be much easier.

[Capn Vivi]

Other teams may be able to offer players like Buchholz, but if the Padres want a young centerfielder in addition to a high upside young starter then they are going to be limited in terms of suitors. A team also has to have minor league depth to make the deal as well as the financial resources to extend said player. My list of players would be short:

Baltimore

Boston

LA Angels

LA Dodgers

NY Mets

The Angels no longer have the minor league system they used to have. Thye have some young arms, but no centerfielder (Matthews is expensive).

The Mets would likely have to give up a guy's like Maine, Wilmer Flores, plus an additional prospect or two. Maine would need an extension in the next two years and he will not be cheap if he performs well. This deal leaves them without the young outfield help the Padres really need.

I do not think the Dodgers are giving up Kershaw.

This really would come down to Boston and Baltimore. Boston seems reluctant to part with their young centerfielder and Baltimore is the only team I can think of that has two young centerfielders with high upsides. San Diego can ask for the moon and if they do not get it they could end up with nothing for two more years of Gonzalez. He will likely be a type A and draft picks are far from certain and often take years to develop.

Here's a question, if you're the Padres, who do you like more: Lars Anderson or Brandon Snyder? Keep in mind, Anderson just put up a line of .233/.328/.345/.673 over 512 PA in AA. Yes, that's a SLG% of .345.

I wouldn't be so psyched about this situation except for the fact that it sounds like MacPhail has been working the phones to San Diego since the Winter Meetings. Not to mention Gonzalez expects to be traded in 10 days. Boston is not willing to trade Buchholz and Ellsbury (and I don't blame them) but what are they willing to trade? Buchholz, Anderson, maybe Reddick? Certainly not Westmoreland, right? We can beat that.