O's nearing deal with reliever Gonzalez

[BaltimoreTerp]

So the Orioles have now spent 15m between Millwood and Gonzalez for about 3 wins on a team most think will win about 77.

I've been a big proponent of spending money, but this is a useless signing. There are much better ways to use 15 million dollars.

Gonzalez might solidify the pen, provided he stays healthy. That, however, is far from a sure thing in my mind.

Furthermore, what happens next year and in two years, when the Orioles have $15 million freed up and need to get 3 more wins? Of all the players to lose a 2nd round pick, which too many people are dismissing so easily, for.

Boston gained 4-6 wins a season by signing Lackey and spent only 2.4 more/season than AM just did. This is dumb.

Actually, they added half a win more (based on last season), at $1.5 million more for this season...but paid for four more years. And Lackey has averaged 3.9 WAR for his career, while Millwood has averaged 3.7.

[Jagwar]

Moves everybody back one slot in the bullpen. I like it.

[amateurfan]

Apples and oranges. Boston had to make a 5-year commitment to Lackey. We made a 2-year commitment to Gonzalez and a 1-year commitment to Millwood.

Is this post sarcastic? Because usually you make much more sense than this.

I'm a lot more optimistic about next season than you are in terms of how many wins I see the Orioles getting, but I think this is an awful waste of money, especially if the Orioles are playing it so close to the wire with money. This is not a good utilization of resources. There are other ways to spend that much money and be more effective with it. Losing a draft pick for one win is not good.

[Ven6]

So the Orioles have now spent 15m between Millwood and Gonzalez for about 3 wins on a team most think will win about 77.

I've been a big proponent of spending money, but this is a useless signing. There are much better ways to use 15 million dollars.

Gonzalez might solidify the pen, provided he stays healthy. That, however, is far from a sure thing in my mind.

Furthermore, what happens next year and in two years, when the Orioles have $15 million freed up and need to get 3 more wins? Of all the players to lose a 2nd round pick, which too many people are dismissing so easily, for.

Boston gained 4-6 wins a season by signing Lackey and spent only 2.4 more/season than AM just did. This is dumb.

Perhaps you're forgetting the deadline deal market for closers? We can flip Gonzo this year or next. Plus, if, and I know it's a big if, he continues to perform and we don't flip him we could end up with picks.

[wildcard]

I consider this a high risk signing.

1)Gonzalez blew 7 of 17 save opportunities last year.

2)He has been knee and elbow problem in 2005, 2007 and 2008.

3)Giving up a 2nd rounder and getting a guy on a two year contract. That is not the kind of return that the O's should normally get for a high draft choice.

I am amazed that the MacPhail signs him if he does.

Brewers were in not pursuit.

[Moose Milligan]

Roch chimes in:

http://masnsports.com/2009/12/meanwhile-in-the-news.html

Gonzalez is represented by Scott Boras, so any lingering concerns that the Orioles are hesitant to deal with him should be put to rest.

Also says that he assumes Gonzo will be given first crack to close. I like this as it puts JJ back at the setup.

[RShack]

So, in effect, we traded Breezy, a 2nd-round pick, and a few $million to get this guy and Josh Bell (and perhaps Steve Johnson, if he doesn't stick with SF for the whole year).

[mweb]

So, in effect, we traded Breezy and a few $million to get this guy and Josh Bell (and perhaps Steve Johnson, if he doesn't stick with SF for the whole year).

Add in the pick.

[MomoMan316]

So the Orioles have now spent 15m between Millwood and Gonzalez for about 3 wins on a team most think will win about 77.

I've been a big proponent of spending money, but this is a useless signing. There are much better ways to use 15 million dollars.

Gonzalez might solidify the pen, provided he stays healthy. That, however, is far from a sure thing in my mind.

Furthermore, what happens next year and in two years, when the Orioles have $15 million freed up and need to get 3 more wins? Of all the players to lose a 2nd round pick, which too many people are dismissing so easily, for.

Boston gained 4-6 wins a season by signing Lackey and spent only 2.4 more/season than AM just did. This is dumb.

But they lost Bay, so that takes away from some wins I think. Good move by the Orioles, how many games did the young starters end up get a ND from when it could of been a win because of the bullpen blowing it. This allows JJ to pitch in 8th and gives them a legit closer. Bullpen should be strong this year which will help a young pitching staff a lot.

[amateurfan]

Actually, they added half a win more (based on last season), at $1.5 million more for this season...but paid for four more years. And Lackey has averaged 3.9 WAR for his career, while Millwood has averaged 3.7.

That's a poor adjustment of stats. Millwood's career WAR is not worth looking at for next year. He's much more likely not to get to it, let alone last year's production. Lackey is much more likely to get 5 than Millwood 3.

Lackey has the potential to win more games for Boston than Millwood + Gonzalez do for the Orioles. I don't think that's all that up in the air. Millwood's K/9 was down, BB/9 was up and so too was his HR/9. I want him to pitch innings next year, but there's no way he's a value in comparison to Lackey (which I didn't even really support signing). I just think that if the Orioles announced "We plan on spending $20 million this winter", fans would have chosen different players.

[Hank Scorpio]

Gonzalez > Rodney.

It's not a bad signing if you're into signing relief pitchers, but I had hoped Koji would be healthy enough to handle it.

I don't want to pull a Trea, but IMO this doesn't say much for their confidence in Koji's elbow.

[Mackus]

I'm a lot more optimistic about next season than you are in terms of how many wins I see the Orioles getting, but I think this is an awful waste of money, especially if the Orioles are playing it so close to the wire with money. This is not a good utilization of resources. There are other ways to spend that much money and be more effective with it. Losing a draft pick for one win is not good.

Closers are always overpaid, and fangraphs doesn't take leverage into account so their valuation of relievers isn't exactly the best representation.

And the pick thing isn't a huge concern to me since they've been so liberal about going over slot. I have little doubt that they will spend that money later in the draft. Its not exactly making up for losing the pick, but it does soften the blow.

Saying the O's could spend their money more wisely is one thing, but comparing it to the Red Sox signings is just weird.

[TonySoprano]

On a 2-year deal? I like it, assuming its not for $10M a year or anything crazy like that.

Aren't you jumping the gun here? All we have are unnamed "industry sources" saying we may have a two year deal.

[amateurfan]

Closers are always overpaid, and fangraphs doesn't take leverage into account so their valuation of relievers isn't exactly the best representation.

And the pick thing isn't a huge concern to me since they've been so liberal about going over slot. I have little doubt that they will spend that money later in the draft. Its not exactly making up for losing the pick, but it does soften the blow.

Saying the O's could spend their money more wisely is one thing, but comparing it to the Red Sox signings is just weird.

I hope they do. I also hope they spend wisely in the first round.

Fair enough to take Boston out of the discussion. Consider this though, even sighing Beltre for 3/45, which is outrageous, is likely to get the Orioles more wins then M and G. Would you rather have Beltre for 3/40 (still too much, but under what AM just spent) at 3b and Bell at 1b? Better return I bet.

[Mackus]

Aren't you jumping the gun here? All we have are unnamed "industry sources" saying we may have a two year deal.

Certainly, its still only a report.

It makes enough sense to be worth putting some amount of credence in it, though.