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O's nearing deal with reliever Gonzalez


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Actually, they added half a win more (based on last season), at $1.5 million more for this season...but paid for four more years. And Lackey has averaged 3.9 WAR for his career, while Millwood has averaged 3.7.

Only problem with this approach is that Millwood is way past his prime & Lackey is in his prime.

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I hope they do. I also hope they spend wisely in the first round.

Fair enough to take Boston out of the discussion. Consider this though, even sighing Beltre for 3/45, which is outrageous, is likely to get the Orioles more wins then M and G. Would you rather have Beltre for 3/40 (still too much, but under what AM just spent) at 3b and Bell at 1b? Better return I bet.

I wouldn't want Beltre for 3 years. A 2 year deal for him is the most I'd go.
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Gonzalez > Rodney.

It's not a bad signing if you're into signing relief pitchers, but I had hoped Koji would be healthy enough to handle it.

I don't want to pull a Trea, but IMO this doesn't say much for their confidence in Koji's elbow.

Is it possible that they see Koji as a safety net for injuries within the rotation? Middle reliever, ready to spot start when the inevitable injuries hit the rotation.

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That's a poor adjustment of stats. Millwood's career WAR is not worth looking at for next year. He's much more likely not to get to it, let alone last year's production. Lackey is much more likely to get 5 than Millwood 3.

Lackey has the potential to win more games for Boston than Millwood + Gonzalez do for the Orioles. I don't think that's all that up in the air. Millwood's K/9 was down, BB/9 was up and so too was his HR/9. I want him to pitch innings next year, but there's no way he's a value in comparison to Lackey (which I didn't even really support signing). I just think that if the Orioles announced "We plan on spending $20 million this winter", fans would have chosen different players.

I appreciate where you're going with this, but don't you think the O's were going to spend on a closer in almost any scenario this year?

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Apples and oranges. Boston had to make a 5-year commitment to Lackey. We made a 2-year commitment to Gonzalez and a 1-year commitment to Millwood.

Is this post sarcastic? Because usually you make much more sense than this.

But how will we ever find money to compete in two years, when Millwood is off the books and Gonzalez is a potential high-leverage guy in our bullpen?

Clearly what matters is how our moves stack up to Boston in 2010!

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So the Orioles have now spent 15m between Millwood and Gonzalez for about 3 wins on a team most think will win about 77.

I've been a big proponent of spending money, but this is a useless signing. There are much better ways to use 15 million dollars.

Gonzalez might solidify the pen, provided he stays healthy. That, however, is far from a sure thing in my mind.

Furthermore, what happens next year and in two years, when the Orioles have $15 million freed up and need to get 3 more wins? Of all the players to lose a 2nd round pick, which too many people are dismissing so easily, for.

Boston gained 4-6 wins a season by signing Lackey and spent only 2.4 more/season than AM just did. This is dumb.

Let's try again.

Millwood alone has been worth between 2.4 and 5.1 wins in each of the last 7 years. Gonzalez will probably be worth 1-2 additional wins.

I'd guess that the combo is a pretty safe bet to be worth at least 4 wins (keep in mind that Gonzalez will be pitching in slightly higher leverage situations).

In addition, we've kept our yearly commitment minimal, avoiding long term contracts for baseball's most injury prone players (starting pitchers).

4 wins on the FA market is worth about 18-19 MM. Three wins is worth around 14 MM. As far as FA signings go, these aren't bad at all.

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I'm not keen on losing draft picks to sign relievers, but at the very least he's actually a reliever who isn't a specialist, although he's tough on lefties. He was one of the best available this offseason, so that's a good thing, and the deal is for two years, one less than the three deals from a few years ago. I'll want to see the financial details of it. All in all I like the signing, I just am not keen to losing the pick.

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