Orioles after Adrian Gonzalez?

[crissfan172]

Would Tillman, Arrieta, Pie,and Snyder get the deal done? It's two of the O's top prospects who are close to the Majors, a highly regarded young MLB SP, and a highly regarded CF who showed signs of being quite capable.

Would the Padres or Orioles do this? Would the O's do this?

I really can't see AM giving up anyone projected to be in our rotation next year. It just doesn't make sense. If you switch Tillman with Britton, I would be much happier. Of course, for giving up 2 top SP prospects, I would want Kouz too.

[SoBo]

You probably could replace Arrieta with Erbe and include a guy like C. Joseph to get it done, but Boston has the prospects to get this done. How about Buchholz, Casey Kelley, and Bard?

Is that superior to Tillman, Erbe, Snyder and Joseph???

[GoldGlove21]

I think people here generally overstate what it would cost to get AG. That would be a damn good offer for SD. I hope the O's don't go that far though.

I would give up Pie and Snyder without a thought. I wouldn't give up Tillman and Arrieta, but I would give up one of them as well as another young player with some upside. Maybe Erbe, but there is no way I make that deal if I cna not extending the guy. That would be stupid. Give up a nice package for 2 years of Gonzalez.

[GoldGlove21]

Is that superior to Tillman, Erbe, Snyder and Joseph???

I think it is. Buchholz is at least as good as Tillman if not slightly better. Bard is a better prospect than C. Joseph. Kelley is better than Erbe. I would call them even, but the industry would not.

[Elon Os Fan]

Trade Tillman, Pie, Hernandez and Berken for AGON

Sign Valverde, Washburn, Escobar and Bedard

2B Roberts

CF Jones

RF Markakis

1B Gonzalez

C Wieters

LF Reimold

DH Scott

3B Bell

SS Izturis

Bench Atkins, Wigginton, Back up Catcher (Moehler), 25th Man (Andino/Turner)

SP1 Millwood

SP2 Matusz

SP3 Bergesen

SP4 Guthrie

SP5 Washburn

w/ Bedard taking the worst guys spot in June and Escobar serving as spot starter

C Valverde

SU Gonzalez/JJ

MR Mickilio, Escobar, Meredith, Hendrickson

LR Uehara

Still Have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe pushing in 2010 to take Washburn/Guthrie/Millwood etc spots. Plenty of Depth.

Still need to find SS of the future. Snyder can be a good DH/Backup CI guy. Taking over for Wiggy and Atkins.

Scott can play the corners and Kakes can cover CF if Jones is down.

[Lucky Jim]

You probably could replace Arrieta with Erbe and include a guy like C. Joseph to get it done, but Boston has the prospects to get this done. How about Buchholz, Casey Kelley, and Bard?

There are two components: 1. it makes sense for Boston, because AG will be leveraged to help them contend both years of the contract; and 2. because AG is more likely to extend in Boston.

Because it makes more sense on both points, Boston can (and should) offer more than the Orioles would. Essentially, the asymmetries mean that if the Orioles outbid the Sox, absent a absurdly low-ball offer from Boston, then the O's are being idiots.

[SoBo]

Just typing out loud, since its way past my bedtime. If a deal for Agon is centered around Tillman and no Jones. The Bedard deal ultimately nets you Jones, Agon and Bell. And then you resign Bedard.

[bluedog]

I can. Adam Jones and not a whole lot else would get it done. OK, I'll say it. I believe S.D pulls the trigger on a Gonzalez for Jones and Hernandez deal. Is that a trade you would make?

Jones + Tillman + Snyder + 2 mid level prospects for AGon and Kouz is what I'm guessing.

Moving Jones clears a spot for Pie.

Getting AGon makes Snyder redundant.

Getting Kouz clears up the 3b situation until Bell is ready.

With the emergence of Britton and the trade for Millwood and the O's seemingly looking for another FA starter, Tillman looks like he could get squeezed out of the rotation in the short term and looks replaceable in the long term.

The mid level guys might be people like Berken or Hernandez or youngsters who are a couple of years away.

I don't see a down side in this scenario IF the O's can agree to a contract extension with AGon as part of the deal.

[OrioleFanatic2008]

The main problem with dealing Jones is that he is a more proven commodity than Pie. Pie might stick, but he might not. Same can be said for Jones, but I will say that dealing a young player after they make the All Star team and win a Gold Glove is a smart move.

It would be a huge gamble to sell on Jones at this point in his career. We'd essentially be banking on the fact that the production we've seen from Jones is as close to his ceiling as we might see. For me, having Pie in the wings is what makes it an acceptable risk for me. Felix Pie is our hedge against AJ going to San Diego and becoming a perennial all star in the sense that the difference in production between Jones and Pie is more than made up for with Gonzalez.

I'd rather give up AJ to get Gonzalez than two of our top pitchers. We can much more safely assume that AJ is at or near his ceiling than we can project the potential loss of say Tillman and Arrieta.

[Runs2the1Show]

Trade Tillman, Pie, Hernandez and Berken for AGON

Sign Valverde, Washburn, Escobar and Bedard

2B Roberts

CF Jones

RF Markakis

1B Gonzalez

C Wieters

LF Reimold

DH Scott

3B Bell

SS Izturis

Bench Atkins, Wigginton, Back up Catcher (Moehler), 25th Man (Andino/Turner)

SP1 Millwood

SP2 Matusz

SP3 Bergesen

SP4 Guthrie

SP5 Washburn

w/ Bedard taking the worst guys spot in June and Escobar serving as spot starter

C Valverde

SU Gonzalez/JJ

MR Mickilio, Escobar, Meredith, Hendrickson

LR Uehara

Still Have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe pushing in 2010 to take Washburn/Guthrie/Millwood etc spots. Plenty of Depth.

Still need to find SS of the future. Snyder can be a good DH/Backup CI guy. Taking over for Wiggy and Atkins.

Scott can play the corners and Kakes can cover CF if Jones is down.

It's laughable you believe this will get Gonzales for us.

[UMDTerrapins]

There's no way I'm giving that up w/o an extension.

I would. You have two years to extend him. Worst case scenario you get a monster hitter in the prime of his career making a joke out of the short porch. His addition makes our lineup one of the best in baseball and takes a lot of pressure off the kids. You're giving up three guys with high ceilings, but none has accomplished anything concrete yet. I like DH, but his FB is straight. Tillman has a lot of growing to do still. And Pie is still a project, though he's advanced for a project. And if we lose AG after two years, we get a couple high picks. AG in Camden Yards vs AG in Petco? Too intriguing to pass up....he's the goods. However, expand the deal to include another prospect or require one of CT, DH. FP to be upgraded....and I say no. It's a fine line when you're talking about trading high ceiling prospects who are ML ready from a rebuilding team.

[JTrea81]

Just typing out loud, since its way past my bedtime. If a deal for Agon is centered around Tillman and no Jones. The Bedard deal ultimately nets you Jones, Agon and Bell. And then you resign Bedard.

Imagine a lineup of:

Roberts

Markakis

Wieters

Gonzalez

Jones

Reimold

Scott

Atkins/Bell

Izturis

And a rotation of:

Millwood

Guthrie

Matusz

Bergesen

Bedard

With Britton coming up in 2011 and guys like Patton, Hernandez and Berken still around.

A package of Tillman, Arrieta, Pie, Snyder and Joseph would not cripple the Orioles IMO.

[bluedog]

Trade Tillman, Pie, Hernandez and Berken for AGON

Sign Valverde, Washburn, Escobar and Bedard

2B Roberts

CF Jones

RF Markakis

1B Gonzalez

C Wieters

LF Reimold

DH Scott

3B Bell

SS Izturis

Bench Atkins, Wigginton, Back up Catcher (Moehler), 25th Man (Andino/Turner)

SP1 Millwood

SP2 Matusz

SP3 Bergesen

SP4 Guthrie

SP5 Washburn

w/ Bedard taking the worst guys spot in June and Escobar serving as spot starter

C Valverde

SU Gonzalez/JJ

MR Mickilio, Escobar, Meredith, Hendrickson

LR Uehara

Still Have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe pushing in 2010 to take Washburn/Guthrie/Millwood etc spots. Plenty of Depth.

Still need to find SS of the future. Snyder can be a good DH/Backup CI guy. Taking over for Wiggy and Atkins.

Scott can play the corners and Kakes can cover CF if Jones is down.

I don't think the Pads do that deal if they have Ellsbury + Buchholz on the table from Boston. Tillman isn't a strong enough piece to anchor that deal. Also, if I'm the Pads I want Snyder as the #3 or #4 player.

I think Jones is essential to give us a superior position to Boston.

[Runs2the1Show]

Jones + Tillman + Snyder + 2 mid level prospects for AGon and Kouz is what I'm guessing.

Moving Jones clears a spot for Pie.

Getting AGon makes Snyder redundant.

Getting Kouz clears up the 3b situation until Bell is ready.

With the emergence of Britton and the trade for Millwood and the O's seemingly looking for another FA starter, Tillman looks like he could get squeezed out of the rotation in the short term and looks replaceable in the long term.

The mid level guys might be people like Berken or Hernandez or youngsters who are a couple of years away.

I don't see a down side in this scenario IF the O's can agree to a contract extension with AGon as part of the deal.

I'd do that but I think getting Kouz would be moot now that we have signed Gonzales, as we have Bell in the wings.

Also, am I the only one who thinks the Padres would prefer Pie to Jones? Aside from Jones being from the area, he doesn't really "fit." It's hard to hit homeruns in that park because it is so big, so I think Pie's range and style plays better to that park than Jones, even if Jones is better.

[thundercleetz]

I think the Pads would at least have to consider an offer of Pie, Arrieta, Britton, and Snyder.