Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[Frobby]

Atkins: .892 OPS at home, .735 away

Holliday: 1.052 OPS at home, .808 away

Helton: 1.100 OPS at home, .885 away

Do people just not get it? Matt Holiday is not that good. Atkins isn't good at all. Helton, well he's been very good, just not as good as his overall numbers suggest.

For now, just forget Holliday. I wouldn't trade either Markakis or Jones even up for him. I'd have to think twice about Reimold or Pie.

[hobbycars]

Atkins: .892 OPS at home, .735 away

Holliday: 1.052 OPS at home, .808 away

Helton: 1.100 OPS at home, .885 away

Do people just not get it? Matt Holiday is not that good. Atkins isn't good at all. Helton, well he's been very good, just not as good as his overall numbers suggest.

For now, just forget Holliday. I wouldn't trade either Markakis or Jones even up for him. I'd have to think twice about Reimold or Pie.

Does AM get it? He just signed the guy and I agree, he isn't very good.

I think Matt Holliday is very overrated.

[Frobby]

Re: Atkins..

In the last 3 seasons, Atkins has accomplished the following:

810 at-bats on the road, with a .696 OPS. This included 32 homers, 32 doubles.

760 at-bats at home, with a .868 OPS. This included 23 homers, and 47 doubles.

453 at-bats vs Left-handed Pitching, with a .856 OPS.

This tells me that while he was a better at-home in Coors Field, his power basically translated everywhere. It also tells me that he could help balance the O's lineup against lefties.

The O's did not sign Atkins with the belief he would come close to replicating his 2006 season, where he had a .965 OPS, a .329 average, 29 homers, and 120 rbi.

They are signing Atkins with the belief that if he did not have to play in the National League West, and the pitcher friendly stadiums of LA, SD, and San Francisco; that he could rebound and out produce what Mora provided in 2009.

A 2010 season of a .750 OPS, 20 homers, 80 rbi would be a realistic expectation to me.

I think your projection is optimistic, but your point that a lot of the Rockies' away games are in very pitcher-friendly stadiums is a good one. Thanks for giving me a ray of hope that Atkins isn't as bad as I think. I still worry about the precipitous and steady drop in his numbers over the last 3 seasons.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Maybe it's...

Year  	Age  	Tm  	Lg  	G  	PA  	AB  	R  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	RBI  	SB  	CS  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	OPS+  	TB  	GDP  	HBP  	SH  	SF  	IBB  	Pos  	Awards2009 	29 	TOT 	MLB 	156 	670 	581 	94 	182 	39 	3 	24 	109 	14 	7 	72 	101 	.313 	.394 	.515 	.909 	139 	299 	13 	10 	0 	7 	8 	*7 	MVP-16

...for Holliday.

It does include two games at Coors, though that .661 OPS in eight PAs likely doesn't help or hurt him that much.

Plus, in 2008 he was .892 away. In 2007, .860. In 2006, .819. So he has been getting better and better on the road every year.

I wonder if the opposite is true: that there can be too much made of the Coors effect so that people just make assumptions?

[bmorebirds_24]

WOW!!!! Will you guys ever stop drinking the spiked orange kool-aid????

[BaltimoreTerp]

WOW!!!! Will you guys ever stop drinking the spiked orange kool-aid????

I'm sorry?

[JTrea81]

Matt Holliday had a .860 OPS in Oakland in the cleanup spot including one horrid month of April.

When he played at Busch which is not a hitter's paradise, he had a .377/.442/.677/1.119 line.

While Coors might have inflated his stats, don't forget they are using a humidor there now to reduce the park effect.

[mweb]

Matt Holliday had a .860 OPS in Oakland in the cleanup spot including one horrid month of April.

When he played at Busch which is not a hitter's paradise, he had a .377/.442/.677/1.119 line.

While Coors might have inflated his stats, don't forget they are using a humidor there now to reduce the park effect.

Talk about spin. Lets just go with .831 in Oakland and 1.023 in St. Louis.

[mweb]

Holliday, 2009:

Home: 982 OPS

Road: 830 OPS

Does this mean people don't get the offensive inflation caused by the stadiums in Oakland and St Louis? (And yes, his H/R splits were pretty extreme even in Oakland.)

-----------------

Don't take this post to mean that I'm for signing Holliday, because I don't think I am. It is my opinion that people place a little too much emphasis on H/R splits.

This is something that is often left out of home/road splits analysis. Guys on average do hit better at home.

I certainly wouldn't come close to dismissing his splits in Colorado though.

[Sports Guy]

When did OPACY become Safeco?

I think it is very fair to say that Holliday should be able to produce an 850+ OPS playing here.

[mweb]

When did OPACY become Safeco?

I think it is very fair to say that Holliday should be able to produce an 850+ OPS playing here.

A lot of people seem to think .900 plus and would pay him for that type of production. I think that's Frobby's point. Not that he would hit for his road OPS here.

[sangar]

Meaning what? That if I think Atkins is a suitable one year risk at 3rd, I am drinking the kool-aid?

Fantastic analysis. Let's say that the O's go to camp, and Keith Law is right; that there has been a noticeable deterioration in bat-speed for Atkins. Let's say you get to the end of May, and Atkins is not producing at-all.

If at that time, the O's drop Atkins (at-least from an everyday spot in the lineup) and promote Bell to start June, what have they lost?

Good old fashioned common sense will rarely stop people from making snotty little comments.

[UMDTerrapins]

I say it's the alcohol. :wedge:

[RandyM]

Talk about spin. Lets just go with .831 in Oakland and 1.023 in St. Louis.

I can't find the article, but I thought one of the stats that Beane used to rationalize the trade for Holliday was that yes his rows splits are bad. But each game after playing in COL he improves. So the thinking is that there is an adjustment that he goes through when playing in COL than adjusting to life out. After the 3rd or 4th game out of COL, his away stats are more in line with his home stats.

[wildbillhiccup]

Atkins: .892 OPS at home, .735 away

Holliday: 1.052 OPS at home, .808 away

Helton: 1.100 OPS at home, .885 away

Do people just not get it? Matt Holiday is not that good. Atkins isn't good at all. Helton, well he's been very good, just not as good as his overall numbers suggest.

For now, just forget Holliday. I wouldn't trade either Markakis or Jones even up for him. I'd have to think twice about Reimold or Pie.

Please explain what he did after he was traded to St. Louis last season. He as an absolute BEAST. I'm not discounting the Coors effect, but to group Holliday in the same category as Atkins and to say that he's "not that good" is a real stretch.