We Have The Right GM

[GoldGlove21]

What does that have to do with anything?

Great, AM is making us look better in the eyes of the media...Fantastic!

Now, lets win...After all, that is the reason they play the game, right?

Just ask Herm Edwards:

People can't have it both ways. We are either using our young players to obtain premium talent or we are waiting around to see what we have first. Who are we really going to sign this offseason? Another OF in Holliday or Bay? Adrian Beltre for 4+ years? A 30-something year old John Lackey? I agree that we should be trying to get better any way that we can, but our needs for next season are a first basement, backup catcher, starting pitcher, and a relief pitcher. If our young players do not make huge strides this year then it doesn't matter who we sign this offseason.

We can all sit around and dream up scenarios where we become a contender in one offseason by spending a ton and making a trade or two, but we are assuming that a player would want to play here or that what we were giving up in a trade is what another team would want. AM has done a great job thus far and while I think he could do more, I am not sure that certain players are a good fit with our current roster formation.

[Hank Scorpio]

I understand and agree with the Oldfan perspective.

Wins are obviously the point. Nobody is arguing that. They are arguing the path they choose to get there.

[Satyr3206]

As MacPhail himself has outlined, I kind of look at his job in stages, or phases.

Phase 1 is obviously collecting and compiling as much young talented players as possible. In terms of the big league club, I would say that this part of the job is 95% done.

The reason that so many people around here are behind MacPhail is that nobody has done it this way (the right way IMO) in recent memory. We have clamored for this phase for a good 12 years now. It should have happened back in the late 90's. Having not been a fan of any team who has torn everything up and rebuilt internally, I don't have intimate knowledge of how what MacPhail has done thus far compares. I guess there's really no gauge other than to see how it plays out. Sure, you can read Baseball America or BP or whatever other prospect evaluation site you like and see that there are a lot of former top 50 prospects on our 25 man roster. That's all well and good. They comprise the foundation, and that is the most important part of this "project."

Phase 2 is something that gets glossed over on here often. A legitimate question is what IS phase 2, anyways? To me, it's plug the remaining holes with short term stop gaps while the youth gets acclimated to ML competition. There are still some growing pains associated with this phase, unfortunately. The good news is that this phase has the potential to be relatively succinct. The bad news is that it might become apparent that the guys MacPhail has compiled just aren't gonna cut it. We're in the middle of this thing right now. This is the fun part, people. Try to enjoy it instead of whine and cry about it.

Now, it is certainly legitimate to question when phase 3 begins. It's also legitimate to question what it'll look like. There is such a wide range of opinion on here about this phase. Many people see the money the MFY's of the world throw around and convince themselves that we just cannot compete without a couple players who make a quarter billion dollars. Others are of the belief that they can get by with everything they've already got. Obviously, the truth lies somewhere inbetween, and each free agent class is different. There may be opportunities that make sense for the Orioles to dump 20% of their payroll into one player. There may also be opportunities to trade for a big time player. You can't pigeonhole yourself into acquiring players via free agency. A team like the Orioles cannot build a sustainable winner via free agency. Let me repeat that: A team like the Orioles cannot build a sustainable winner via free agency.

The Orioles have a chance to become very good very fast with the core they have right now. They also have a chance to become very expensive very fast, just based on what they've already got.

People equate monetary expenditure with success, and the fact of the matter is that isn't always the case. And when it's not the case, it can be a very bad, crippling thing. So you have to be cautious.

That's not to understate the importance of Phase 3. Not only will that be the icing, but it will also signify that the previous two phases were successful. And oh, by the way, while all this is going on, you need to be running a constant phase 1 organizationally via the draft, trades & international signings (which, incidentally, MacPhail needs to improve upon.)

I know it's been a long time since the Orioles played meaningful baseball late in the summer, but for the first time in a long time, there is hope in the near future.

Excellent post. Rep to you.

I'm excited about the future of this organization and I fully intend to enjoy watching this team develop over the next year or two.

Building an organization is like a remodeling project. Demolition phase, construction phase, then the finishing phase. You can't change the order no matter how much you would like to.

[Frobby]

This job shouldn't be in phases...Its quite simple...You obtain the talent you need when it is readily available.

Now, you do that within the framework of your budget, future, etc...Just because AGOn may be available, that doesn't mean you do something stupid.

But if you see a guy out there that you feel is a building block long term and you can obtain him for a reasonable cost, either in terms of money or players, then you do it.

The idea that you have to wait until you are on the verge of something is so poor and such a cop out.

I'm a little surprised to hear you say this. Timing is important in franchise-building. If it wasn't, we never would have traded Bedard and Tejada. They weren't going to help us contend, so we dumped them for younger talent. Until that younger talent, and other younger talent we have developed and acquired, is close to ready there is no point in spending a ton of money to supplement that talent.

Now, if what you are saying is that you don't necessarily turn away a guy who is a very good long-term fit just because he's available one year earlier than would be ideal, then I agree with you.

[Hank Scorpio]

Bottom Line if the WINS don't significantly increase this year and 2011 AM will have failed and should be viewed little differently than his predecessors. His methods were better but if the results were the same it is moot. For one thing, he doesn't pay attention to what Boston and NY are doing and to me that is about as big a mistake as any GM in the AL East could ever make. You don't ignore those whom you have to compete against. Instead you build a team to beat them. Does anyone think the Ravens ignore the Steelers, who have won their division and the superbowl? No, they drafted a big young QB similar to Ben, and have drafted lineman to counter the Steelers tremendous pass rush. It only makes sense now doesn't it? What AM is doing is not very smart in ignoring Boston and NY.

I agree that if wins don't significantly increase by 2011, then it didn't work out.

But I completely disagree that MacPhail would be viewed in the same light as his predecessors. I appreciate that you actually gave reasons as to why you think he would, but I disagree.

MacPhail is going about this the right way. Whether it works out or not is dependent on a bunch of different things.

[clapdiddy]

Perception matters these past few years though since AM became the GM. It helps to be taking seriously by teams and agents. They used to hate dealing with the Orioles because of Angelos and dealing with two GMs. Yes we need wins,but to be taken seriously now helps.

Agree with this wholeheartedly. We are no longer a laughingstock in the league, and actually have a guy who knows what he's doing. I think he's done a very good job of moving some veterans for some good "building blocks".

Like SG, I'm not sure that he's going to get us to the next level. Unfortunately, I don't know that any GM in this division outside of NY and BOS is capable of getting us to the next level. I just don't see us competing with those teams on a regular basis. Nor do I see Toronto or Tampa doing it, either.

[Sports Guy]

I'm a little surprised to hear you say this. Timing is important in franchise-building. If it wasn't, we never would have traded Bedard and Tejada. They weren't going to help us contend, so we dumped them for younger talent. Until that younger talent, and other younger talent we have developed and acquired, is close to ready there is no point in spending a ton of money to supplement that talent.

Now, if what you are saying is that you don't necessarily turn away a guy who is a very good long-term fit just because he's available one year earlier than would be ideal, then I agree with you.

This is what I am saying.

[TonySoprano]

And yes, very fast. In 2-3 years if these kids are all they've been hyped to be, they will be getting PAID in arbitration. So again, my definition of "very fast" is different than yours.

As is your definition of "very expensive." Combined in two years, they may make what we're paying Atkins this year. When they get paid to the levels of Roberts or Markakis, then we're starting to talk about a big combined payroll expense.

ETA. In 2-3 years we should be seeing the fruits of Andy's plan. If it turns into more wins, then it will also turn into more ticket sales, helping to offset payroll.

[clapdiddy]

People can't have it both ways. We are either using our young players to obtain premium talent or we are waiting around to see what we have first. Who are we really going to sign this offseason? Another OF in Holliday or Bay? Adrian Beltre for 4+ years? A 30-something year old John Lackey? I agree that we should be trying to get better any way that we can, but our needs for next season are a first basement, backup catcher, starting pitcher, and a relief pitcher. If our young players do not make huge strides this year then it doesn't matter who we sign this offseason.

We can all sit around and dream up scenarios where we become a contender in one offseason by spending a ton and making a trade or two, but we are assuming that a player would want to play here or that what we were giving up in a trade is what another team would want. AM has done a great job thus far and while I think he could do more, I am not sure that certain players are a good fit with our current roster formation.

I think you make some good points, but I still feel that we could do very well by signing Holliday and making one of our young, cheap outfielders available to fill another hole. Holliday is a proven MLB hitter who would have an immediate impact on this team.

If we were able to acquire a long-term shortstop or young ace pitcher by acquiring Holliday, I think you'd have to consider it.

Now, I'm not going to be upset if we don't sign Holliday, but I can see where signing him could lead to other moves that can help this team in the long and short runs.

[Peace21]

I do though think he needs to improve in some areas,such as international scouting. We need to be a lot better in the Dominican and abroad.

[Sports Guy]

I do though think he needs to improve in some areas,such as international scouting. We need to be a lot better in the Dominican and abroad.

And this is how you "keep up with the Joneses".

The Orioles MUST do a better job of getting international talent in here.

They need to pour a lot of resources into this and improve immediately.

[Hank Scorpio]

And this is how you "keep up with the Joneses".

The Orioles MUST do a better job of getting international talent in here.

They need to pour a lot of resources into this and improve immediately.

I agree with this 100%.

[Peace21]

And this is how you "keep up with the Joneses".

The Orioles MUST do a better job of getting international talent in here.

They need to pour a lot of resources into this and improve immediately.

Which it would be great if they landed Chapman.

[Frobby]

This is what I am saying.

Do you think there is someone who is out there now that we should go get?

I have mixed feelings. Bay or Holliday would meet my desire for a big bat, but acquiring one of them means having to move some other pieces around. And while they are both very good hitters, I don't think of either as really elite. So, while I wouldn't vomit if we signed one of those two at a price that is a little above what reportedly is on offer from other teams, I can't say I'd want to break the bank for either one. AGon would be a good fit, but the price in terms of young talent would be extremely high, and I'm reluctant to reach very far into our pitching depth until we have a little more certainty that some of our young pitchers are actually performing well enough at the major league level that we can afford to deal some surplus. And, we'd need him to extend to make it worthwhile in any event.

Do you have anyone else in mind, given what is still available?

[Hank Scorpio]

If Matt Holliday would take a 5 year $80MM deal, then I think that promises pretty good value.

That's a situation you have to be in on.