We Have The Right GM

[clapdiddy]

Would you say the Rays were saying this not too long ago?

Dunno...I would think with the abundance of young talent they had (and still do) that they would have been.

[Sports Guy]

Dunno...I would think with the abundance of young talent they had (and still do) that they would have been.

Yea..People keep forgetting that the Rays had some good pitching in place before they started getting some of their guys up there.

We don't really have any established talent yet...I would say 2011 is our "DRays year"....But AM needs to acquire more talent in the mean time...real talent, not this mediocre stuff he is bringing in thus far this offseason.

[JTrea81]

Would you say the Rays were saying this not too long ago?

The Rays won't see the playoffs again for some time IMO. They are a one and done now because they refuse to raise their payroll and will fall behind the giants of the East as a result. Their window is shut.

Forget about the Rays. They were a fluke. The Red Sox organization is the model that we want to emulate.

We want sustained a playoff run, correct? If we want a short run, why not go for it now then? I thought a sustained run is why everybody wanted to hang onto the prospects and not spend money in FA.

[Sports Guy]

The Rays won't see the playoffs again for some time IMO. They are a one and done now because they refuse to raise their payroll and will fall behind the giants of the East as a result. Their window is shut.

Forget about the Rays. They were a fluke. The Red Sox organization is the model that we want to emulate.

A fluke? That has to be one of the worst things you have said on here.

Didn't someone on here say that the DRays had a WAR of 50 last year? Isn't that the magic number?

[JTrea81]

A fluke? That has to be one of the worst things you have said on here.

Didn't someone on here say that the DRays had a WAR of 50 last year? Isn't that the magic number?

The Sox and Yankees have raised the bar:

It’s just so tempting. Among the best ways to properly value players is through a metric called Wins Above Replacement. WAR is rather simple: It takes a player’s offensive and fielding statistics and translates them into an easy-to-digest number. The Yankees’ players were worth a combined 56.9 WAR last year. A team of replacement players – solid at Triple-A, not good enough for the major leagues – is projected to win 46 games a year. Add the 56.9 and 46, and New York was expected to win 102.9 games. The Yankees went 103-59.

...

Already this offseason the Yankees have replaced the seven wins they lost from Johnny Damon(notes), Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera(notes) with 12.4 from Vazquez, Curtis Granderson(notes) and Nick Johnson(notes). The Red Sox have done even better: Bay’s 3.5 wins – so low because fielding metrics crush his value – and Alex Gonzalez’s 1.2 wins have been replaced by 12.7 from Cameron, Lackey and Marco Scutaro(notes).

It's going to take 60 WAR now.

And as I'll point out, the Rays took advantage of a down year by the Yankees who have since retooled, and absolutely crushed the Orioles for 15 wins out of 18. Since the Orioles have improved, that should no longer be possible, and indeed the Rays only went 10-8 vs. the Orioles last season.

The Rays also had a ton of luck because they were only expected to win 92 games, and wound up with 97. In 2009 the Rays were expected to win 86 games and wound up with 84, so they were a bit unlucky. But then if you add in those 5 extra wins against the Orioles, they would be right back to where they would have been projected to be.

[Sports Guy]

The Sox and Yankees have raised the bar:

It's going to take 60 WAR now.

LOL...So funny.

[Mackus]

We don't really have any established talent yet...I would say 2011 is our "DRays year"....But AM needs to acquire more talent in the mean time...real talent, not this mediocre stuff he is bringing in thus far this offseason.

I think everybody, including MacPhail, agrees with this.

The talent he's brought in this offseason is strictly stop-gap stuff. Better than the usual stop gap talent, as he's willing to spend some cash to try and get us to 82 wins rather than just go with the cheapest option available, but stop gap nonetheless. Gonzalez is the exception though, he's rather good talent at his position, he just plays a position with reduced importance. I do think he can be an impact player on a hopefully competitive 2011 team.

[Frobby]

The Rays won't see the playoffs again for some time IMO. They are a one and done now because they refuse to raise their payroll and will fall behind the giants of the East as a result. Their window is shut.

Forget about the Rays. They were a fluke. The Red Sox organization is the model that we want to emulate.

We want sustained a playoff run, correct? If we want a short run, why not go for it now then? I thought a sustained run is why everybody wanted to hang onto the prospects and not spend money in FA.

The Orioles, once they become contenders, should be in a far better economic position than the Rays are now. We have a bigger, better established, more loyal fan base that undoubtedly will come out in droves if they have a good team to support. Tampa's attendance didn't top 1.9 mm in 2008 when they won the pennant, nor did it top it this year. We are still outdrawing Tampa despite 12 straight years of losing and 5 straight years of our record being worse than it was the year before.

By the way, though, Tampa's payroll has gone from $24 mm to $43 mm to $63 mm the last 3 years. The 2009 payroll was the highest in Tampa history. It's not correct that they have refused to increase payroll. They probably can't go too much higher than they are now, though, because their attendance is so lousy (and probably isn't going to go significantly higher even if they remain a contender).

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

The Rays won't see the playoffs again for some time IMO. They are a one and done now because they refuse to raise their payroll and will fall behind the giants of the East as a result. Their window is shut.

Forget about the Rays. They were a fluke.

.

Jtrea..

- You don't think David Price is going to improve?

- Also, Wade Davis looked full of potential at the end of last year

- Neimann had a really solid first year as a full time starter

- And they have Garza who could put up a 3.5 ERA

- Finally there's James Shields who had an "off year" at a 4.14 ERA

The Rays may have more potential in their starting rotation than ever.. They are anything but done my friend, IMO.

They may not make the playoffs because of of the inexperience of Price and Davis, but no reason they won't have a continued shot at it over the next few years.

They play the season for a reason. Let's not crown the Yanks or the Bo Sox yet.

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles, once they become contenders, should be in a far better economic position than the Rays are now. We have a bigger, better established, more loyal fan base that undoubtedly will come out in droves if they have a good team to support. Tampa's attendance didn't top 1.9 mm in 2008 when they won the pennant, nor did it top it this year. We are still outdrawing Tampa despite 12 straight years of losing and 5 straight years of our record being worse than it was the year before.

By the way, though, Tampa's payroll has gone from $24 mm to $43 mm to $63 mm the last 3 years. The 2009 payroll was the highest in Tampa history. It's not correct that they have refused to increase payroll. They probably can't go too much higher than they are now, though, because their attendance is so lousy (and probably isn't going to go significantly higher even if they remain a contender).

Unless Tampa builds a new stadium...They could see revenues go up then.

Look at Minnesota...Talk of them moving their payroll up to around 90 million...Now, the Twins have a better fan base but still, they have always been small market...Maybe the same thing will happen to TB?

[Frobby]

The Sox and Yankees have raised the bar:

It's going to take 60 WAR now.

The fallacy here is it assumes the other players on the Yankees remain static. The core of their team is aging and you could easily see significant slippage in the WAR produced by many of their players.

Personally, I'm hoping Jeter has one more really good year left in him so that the Yankees will sign him to a new 4 year deal for, say, $90-100 mm next offseason, following which he can drop off the end of the earth.

[Sports Guy]

The fallacy here is it assumes the other players on the Yankees remain static. The core of their team is aging and you could easily see significant slippage in the WAR produced by many of their players.

Personally, I'm hoping Jeter has one more really good year left in him so that the Yankees will sign him to a new 4 year deal for, say, $90-100 mm next offseason, following which he can drop off the end of the earth.

The other fallacy is that they will always win 100+ games.

It may very well happen in 2010...Doesn't mean it is going to happen in 2011 and beyond.

We still need to get into that 93-98 win range.

[Stotle]

The Rays won't see the playoffs again for some time IMO. They are a one and done now because they refuse to raise their payroll and will fall behind the giants of the East as a result. Their window is shut.

Forget about the Rays. They were a fluke. The Red Sox organization is the model that we want to emulate.

We want sustained a playoff run, correct? If we want a short run, why not go for it now then? I thought a sustained run is why everybody wanted to hang onto the prospects and not spend money in FA.

Yeah, taking what they have now and infusing Jennings, Hellickson, McGee, Davis and Brignac over the next 1.5 seasons won't help at all.

Look, TAM has a tough road -- just like BAL and TOR. But they have ample opportunity to build a team capable of competing for a playoff spot. As is the case with BAL, they need to be selectively aggressive in trading redundancies and spending to extend or sign key players when the time comes. There is TONS of talent there and no reason why it can't be parlayed into a playoff team.

BAL can't be BOS. I like the way BOS does things, but BAL isn't going to sign Penny/Smoltz (last year) to give a AAA stud more time to mature. Those kinds of moves simply won't happen. BAL can put together a very good team just being BAL. They don't need to emulate anyone.

[clapdiddy]

The fallacy here is it assumes the other players on the Yankees remain static. The core of their team is aging and you could easily see significant slippage in the WAR produced by many of their players.

Personally, I'm hoping Jeter has one more really good year left in him so that the Yankees will sign him to a new 4 year deal for, say, $90-100 mm next offseason, following which he can drop off the end of the earth.

I've been reading this on here for years, and yet Jeter, Posada, and Rivera just keep on going. When those three are done, they will be able to go out and buy Mauer, Reyes, and the best closer on the market.

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

And they have one of the best prospects in baseball in Desmon Jennings. Hellickson's another really good pitching prospect as well. The Rays will be good. It's just a matter of injuries and things like that.

Yeah they still have a lot of talent.. First overall pick SS Tim Beckham too.

Just because they missed the playoffs one year doesn't mean they are done.

As we all know, there's way more than just wins and losses. They still were over .500, their SP just struggled.

That's why you have to stockpile the talent, you never know who will turn out.

That's why I like what Hank said, you are always continuing phase 1 with drafting and restocking the farm..