Roch clarifies AM's "O's will be judged more on wins and losses" comment

[VTmook213]

If you read his comments you'd see there was talk about it in there as well.

Supposedly MacPhail said the fans will let people know.

And I know next season if we aren't .500 or better barring a catastrophic injury to a key player or two, it will be unacceptable for me.

I hope as fans that we settle for nothing less.

And I think this is why he didn't put a number out there. The fact that you would view the season as "unacceptable" if they ended up 80-82 - a 16 game improvement while not adding any premium talent, in the hardest division in baseball - is mildly ridiculous.

I, for one, would love to see the team perform that well and improve that much.

[Old#5fan]

And I think this is why he didn't put a number out there. The fact that you would view the season as "unacceptable" if they ended up 80-82 - a 16 game improvement while not adding any premium talent, in the hardest division in baseball - is mildly ridiculous.

I, for one, would love to see the team perform that well and improve that much.

I will go on record as saying it would be a miracle upon a miracle if the Orioles could somehow finish 80-82 with only the talent they have assembled now on the roster. The odds would have to be 30-1 or worse.

[Frobby]

I will go on record as saying it would be a miracle upon a miracle if the Orioles could somehow finish 80-82 with only the talent they have assembled now on the roster. The odds would have to be 30-1 or worse.

What do you think their record would be (give or take 2-3 wins)?

[DrungoHazewood]

Not to parse words, but you don't necessarily have to have a "major injury" in order to fail to "remain healthy enough to remain in the rotation all season long." Was Bergesen's shin injury a "major injury?" Was Bedard's oblique in 2007?

Let's assume "all season long" means 28+ starts. What would you say are the odds that two out of Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman stay healthy enough to start 28 games? In my opinion, that's a 50/50 proposition. The odds that all three will do it are probably less than 25%.

I was assuming a serious injury likely to have lasting effects going forward. Typical pitcher injuries like TJ surgery, labrum tears and the like. Bergesen's was more of a fluky kind of thing that anyone could have gotten, pitcher or not.

If you're including things like Bergesen's injury, Wang's injury running the bases, or somebody turning an ankle fielding a bunt, I'd guess the Yanks' older pitchers have a higher likelihood of incurring those type of things than the O's young guys.

[RShack]

Not only is it quite unlikely that all three pitch well, it is even more unlikely that even two of them remain healthy enough to remain in the rotation all season long.

I don't expect all 3 to pitch well this coming season. I expect the first 2 of them to pitch well, and I expect Tillman to be inconsistent. However, I don't see any reason to expect 2 of the 3 to not remain healthy. That's not to say that they won't miss a few starts due to whatever, but it's not crazy to think that two of them will make most of their starts.

What's crazy is to think that we should be looking for our strength in young SP talent to somehow not develop. If you're gonna think like that, well, you're pretty much counting on us being screwed in a way for which there is no reasonable alternate plan.

[beervendor]

In the aggregate we know that about 50% of professional pitchers have a major injury by the time they turn 25.

Very interesting stat. Do you have a source for this? Not questioning you, just interested in reading more about it.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I will go on record as saying it would be a miracle upon a miracle if the Orioles could somehow finish 80-82 with only the talent they have assembled now on the roster. The odds would have to be 30-1 or worse.

What do you think their record would be (give or take 2-3 wins)?

This will be interesting. If the odds of 80 wins are 30-1 or worse, the over/under should probably be around 60 wins.

[Frobby]

I was assuming a serious injury likely to have lasting effects going forward. Typical pitcher injuries like TJ surgery, labrum tears and the like. Bergesen's was more of a fluky kind of thing that anyone could have gotten, pitcher or not.

If you're including things like Bergesen's injury, Wang's injury running the bases, or somebody turning an ankle fielding a bunt, I'd guess the Yanks' older pitchers have a higher likelihood of incurring those type of things than the O's young guys.

Maybe, but I have a theory that avoiding nagging injuries is something of a skill (or a trait), not just pure luck. You look at Sabathia (never made fewer than 28 starts) and Vazquez (one season under 32 starts in a 12-year career) and you have to feel pretty good that they are going to take their turn every fifth day. Burnett and Pettitte are not quite as reliable (especially considering Pettitte will be 38 and Burnett has missed significant time in numerous seasons and seemed to wear down at the end last year). But, I like the Yankees' chances of getting 3 of their 5 to make 30+ starts, and 4 of 5 isn't out of the question.

[Old#5fan]

What do you think their record would be (give or take 2-3 wins)?

As it stands now (no changes to the team) I would guess about 73 wins which would be 5 more than last year.

[Old#5fan]

I don't expect all 3 to pitch well this coming season. I expect the first 2 of them to pitch well, and I expect Tillman to be inconsistent. However, I don't see any reason to expect 2 of the 3 to not remain healthy. That's not to say that they won't miss a few starts due to whatever, but it's not crazy to think that two of them will make most of their starts.

What's crazy is to think that we should be looking for our strength in young SP talent to somehow not develop. If you're gonna think like that, well, you're pretty much counting on us being screwed in a way for which there is no reasonable alternate plan.

Sure there is. Its called depth. AM should sign Bedard and Sheets. One of the two might be healthy enough to help out.

[CSB Jack]

As it stands now (no changes to the team) I would guess about 73 wins which would be 5 more than last year.

Not to quibble, but wouldn't that be 9 more than last year? Assuming by "last year" you mean the 64 win 2009 season and not the 68 win 2008 campaign.

[Old#5fan]

Not to quibble, but wouldn't that be 9 more than last year? Assuming by "last year" you mean the 64 win 2009 season and not the 68 win 2008 campaign.

I thought they won 68 last season-my bad. I do think they win somewhere along the lines of 1-9 more games this season - in that range barring any major injuries to Wieters, Jones, or Reimold.

[El Gordo]

Not to quibble, but wouldn't that be 9 more than last year? Assuming by "last year" you mean the 64 win 2009 season and not the 68 win 2008 campaign.

A 9 win improvement isn't quibbling IMO. It could mean the difference between DT keeping or losing his job.

[Arthur_Bryant]

As it stands now (no changes to the team) I would guess about 73 wins which would be 5 more than last year.

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense, given your 30-1 or worse odds of getting 80 to 82 wins.

You don't go from even money to 30-1 just by adding seven or eight wins.

[RShack]

There's nothing to talk about, everybody's bored, so folks are tag-teaming allegedly-OldFan just to pass the time.

For page after page, it's just a repeat of the same ole things from ages ago...