I'm a little disappointed in AM

[JTrea81]

Are you so sure we won't have difference making talent on this team in 1 or 2 years? Are you ruling out that Pie, Jones, Reimold, Wieters can be difference makers in that time frame? At one point Holliday was in the same boat as these guys.

We will need more than just those guys, that's my point. And no I do not expect all those players to be 5+ WAR players. Out of those four, Wieters has the best chance. Pie I doubt will be much higher than 2-3 WAR at the best. Jones more like 3-4 WAR and Reimold about the same.

[MemorialStadKid]

See people keep saying "wait until next year."

Have you looked at what is available next year though?

Holliday is the best bat not named Mauer out of the two FA classes.

If you want us to grab FA that's better than Holliday, you'll have to wait two offseasons until after 2011, and then that FA class might yield a better opportunity.

Are you really willing to wait two years to add difference making talent?

Yea, some people are willing to wait until 2012 to field a winning team in the name of allowing our prospects to develop.

The thing that worries me is whether or not putting all our eggs in the basket of our youth will work out in the long run?

For all the talk about letting the kids play, I've yet to hear what our plan might be if none of these guys pan out to an average at best major league career.

I've read the reports by fangraphs and basebpall prospectus and baseball america and things do sound very hopeful, I am still unimpressed by a lot of what I see on that field.

It comes down to whether you want to have hope in a bunch of youth or hedge your bets in free agency or trades for a proven player.

MSK

[Lucky Jim]

You are supposed to take it that you had higher expectations than you should have. You explained why you did, but that doesn't mean they were valid. And in fact, considering how you corrected yourself above, you are incorrect anyway since that is exactly what Atkins is (a "defensively oriented, and experienced position player for a year or two until Josh Bell is ready"), like it or not.

In what world is Garrett Atkins (a negative UZR every year) a "defensively-oriented" player?

[Lucky Jim]

For all the talk about letting the kids play, I've yet to hear what our plan might be if none of these guys pan out to an average at best major league career.

If they don't, signing FAs won't matter. Seriously. It's a simple as that.

But why would "none pan out to an average at best career"? You're saying that none will even be average? Your sentence structure is seriously twisted.

Thanks for updating that thread regarding folks who think no additional moves need to be made. Much appreciated.

[RShack]

Yea, some people are willing to wait until 2012 to field a winning team in the name of allowing our prospects to develop.

The thing that worries me is whether or not putting all our eggs in the basket of our youth will work out in the long run?

For all the talk about letting the kids play, I've yet to hear what our plan might be if none of these guys pan out to an average at best major league career.

That's the basket where most of our eggs are. Like it or not, there's absolutely no way around it.

If enough of those eggs don't hatch, we're screwed regardless. No reason to think that's gonna happen though.

The only thing big FA can do is make the diff between "almost there" and "there", that's all it is, nothing more than that...

[BaltimoreTerp]

In what world is Garrett Atkins (a negative UZR every year) a "defensively-oriented" player?

The team seems to feel that way. And I didn't say I agreed.

[Stotle]

If you add one player now, that's one player you don't have to add later.

True, unless you fill the wrong hole a year too early because you weren't willing to see what Reimold, Wieters, Pie, Tillman, Matusz and Bergesen could do with some ML time now under their belt, or what Bell, Snyder, Arrieta and potentially Erbe look like as ML players.

When you have limited bullets, I think it's fair to give yourself a little time to make sure you're aiming at the right target.

[MemorialStadKid]

If they don't, signing FAs won't matter. Seriously. It's a simple as that.

But why would "none pan out to an average at best career"? You're saying that none will even be average? Your sentence structure is seriously twisted.

Thanks for updating that thread regarding folks who think no additional moves need to be made. Much appreciated.

For the last damn time, I will update it when I get the time. I am working a lot during the holidays.

I said if none of these guys pan out to having an average career in MLB then what happens. Its clear that average teams don't compete in the AL East.

That's what I was saying. Otherwise, quit trying to drag out a conflict with me, I will post it when I am done.

MSK

[JTrea81]

True, unless you fill the wrong hole a year too early.

You have the player for 6 years. What's one year? It's not like the Orioles don't have the money.

Who do you want to sign to a 6 year contract next offseason besides Joe Mauer that you think we won't have the money to get if we sign Bay or Holliday?

[Stotle]

You have the player for 6 years. What's one year?

What are you talking about? It's a pretty simple concept:

What happens when you commit $105 million to 6 years of Holliday and Bell, Reimold, Pie and Jones actually all look like good to very good contributors, but Bell can't stick at 3B? Now you spent $17 million for the privilege of holding Holliday for a year so you could win 83 games or whatever, and you're forced to either sign a 3B or trade one of your good, young players to try and fill a hole with someone who you are no where near as familiar with (young player from another team) or another older, expensive player.

If there was a good young SS available, fine. Through a ton of money at him. But adding Holliday is silly when the one strength on your team is the OF. Let it sort itself out some while your young pitchers turn into real contributors. Look for opportunities where you can find them, but don't force bad, nonsensical moves simply because you feel like you need to add talent in whatever form you can find.

[Stotle]

You have the player for 6 years. What's one year? It's not like the Orioles don't have the money.

Who do you want to sign to a 6 year contract next offseason besides Joe Mauer that you think we won't have the money to get if we sign Bay or Holliday?

You don't have to sign, you can trade for someone. Why do you want to pay $17 million to hold a player for a year for a potentially competitive 2011 team just to fill a non-existent void?

[JTrea81]

What are you talking about? It's a pretty simple concept:

What happens when you commit $105 million to 6 years of Holliday and Bell, Reimold, Pie and Jones actually all look like good to very good contributors, but Bell can't stick at 3B? Now you spent $17 million for the privilege of holding Holliday for a year so you could win 83 games or whatever, and you're forced to either sign a 3B or trade one of your good, young players to try and fill a hole with someone who you are no where near as familiar with (young player from another team) or another older, expensive player.

If there was a good young SS available, fine. Through a ton of money at him. But adding Holliday is silly when the one strength on your team is the OF. Let it sort itself out some while your young pitchers turn into real contributors. Look for opportunities where you can find them, but don't force bad, nonsensical moves simply because you feel like you need to add talent in whatever form you can find.

I would argue our OF is still a question mark.

We don't really know what we have with Markakis as he could be another Rios, or maybe he reverts back to his 2008 self. His defense was also below average but improved over the course of the season.

Adam Jones despite his potential has yet to show over a full season that he can maintain that offensive ability he showed early in the season and he too had some defensive issues.

Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie have questions regarding their health and Reimold has questions about his defensive ablity, while Pie hit good for that one month of August but dropped off presumably due to injury.

Holliday would be one of the only OFers on our team that we would know what he could produce if we added him.

The others all have potential to be good or great, but we honestly do not know how they are going to produce going forward. Jones and Markakis have the most potential to be difference makers followed by Reimold, but they still have some major question marks.

Nick Markakis is the best OFer on our team and he is not as good as Holliday yet and Holliday's performance is likely his ceiling.

So while our OF is hyped as being a strength, it really is a major question mark just like the rest of the team.

Holliday would help to solidify that question mark IMO...

[Lucky Jim]

What are you talking about? It's a pretty simple concept:

What happens when you commit $105 million to 6 years of Holliday and Bell, Reimold, Pie and Jones actually all look like good to very good contributors, but Bell can't stick at 3B? Now you spent $17 million for the privilege of holding Holliday for a year so you could win 83 games or whatever, and you're forced to either sign a 3B or trade one of your good, young players to try and fill a hole with someone who you are no where near as familiar with (young player from another team) or another older, expensive player.

If there was a good young SS available, fine. Through a ton of money at him. But adding Holliday is silly when the one strength on your team is the OF. Let it sort itself out some while your young pitchers turn into real contributors. Look for opportunities where you can find them, but don't force bad, nonsensical moves simply because you feel like you need to add talent in whatever form you can find.

Good luck explaining marginal value to Trea.

[JTrea81]

You don't have to sign, you can trade for someone. Why do you want to pay $17 million to hold a player for a year for a potentially competitive 2011 team just to fill a non-existent void?

True we can trade for someone, if you want to give up Tillman most likely.

[Stotle]

I would argue our OF is still a question mark.

We don't really know what we have with Markakis as he could be another Rios, or maybe he reverts back to his 2008 self. His defense was also below average but improved over the course of the season.

Adam Jones despite his potential has yet to show over a full season that he can maintain that offensive ability he showed early in the season and he too had some defensive issues.

Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie have questions regarding their health and Reimold has questions about his defensive ablity, while Pie hit good for that one month of August but dropped off presumably due to injury.

Holliday would be one of the only OFers on our team that we would know what he could produce if we added him.

The others all have potential to be good or great, but we honestly do not know how they are going to produce going forward. Jones and Markakis have the most potential to be difference makers followed by Reimold, but they still have some major question marks.

Nick Markakis is the best OFer on our team and he is not as good as Holliday yet and Holliday's performance is likely his ceiling.

So while our OF is hyped as being a strength, it really is a major question mark just like the rest of the team.

Holliday would help to solidify that question mark IMO...

Even if you think the OF is a question, 1) you cannot think it is the most pressing need, and 2) wouldn't it make sense to see your young OF for a little more time to determine whether or not they are long term solutions? Your argument is based upon adding talent when available so you don't have to do it in one off-season. But the problem is you are advocating making an unnecessary move a year early (filling an OF void) simply because you don't like any other "big moves" that might be out there.

If at the end of the season the O's shape up to have four LEGIT starters in Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen and Arrieta to go along with Guthrie, are you still going to advocate a big contract for Beckett simply because it's available premium talent that can make the team better? Or are you going to look at what makes the most sense for BAL at that time?