Re-hashing: Matzek vs. Hobgood

[Tony-OH]

I don't think this proves anything other than BA is consistent, which is a good thing. BA did not like the Hobgood pick then, and they don't like it now. I have no idea whether or not Joe made the right selection in Hobgood over the other two high school arms, but what I do know is that Joe told me straight up that he liked Hobgood better.

Joe did not see any of the guys as "special." In other words, in his estimation none of them deserved the huge over slot bonuses a few of them were looking for. So did money come into play a bit? Sure, I think we would be naive to think money had no factor at all. However, this was not a signability pick. A signability pick is when a team takes guys off the list because they can't afford a player's demands. Joe has the support of the organization to sign who he wants because the organization realizes Joe has a very good grasp on signing guys for what he thinks they are worth.

It remains to be seen whether or not Joe made the right selection, and Hobgood very well may or may not end up the best of the three, but in the end, Joe took the guy he wanted and it wasn't because of some perceived budget constraints.

[Sports Guy]

How's that? A lot of O's fans wanted him because of the position he plays, despite a lof of questions about his overall game, particularly his hitting.

The idea that he was a SS is of course appealing to our organization.

However, he was the best prospect going into his senior season and he had some injury issues which effected him somewhat as a senior. He went to Cape Cod, with the wooden bats and hit very well.

If he is average defensively and can give you a 730 OPS, he is already a league average or better SS.

He could be our starting SS by 2011 and our positional outlook would look that much better.

I heard more questions about him being able to stay at SS than I did his bat but many felt he could stay at SS.

[Stotle]

I don't think this proves anything other than BA is consistent, which is a good thing. BA did not like the Hobgood pick then, and they don't like it now. I have no idea whether or not Joe made the right selection in Hobgood over the other two high school arms, but what I do know is that Joe told me straight up that he liked Hobgood better.

Joe did not see any of the guys as "special." In other words, in his estimation none of them deserved the huge over slot bonuses a few of them were looking for. So did money come into play a bit? Sure, I think we would be naive to think money had no factor at all. However, this was not a signability pick. A signability pick is when a team takes guys off the list because they can't afford a player's demands. Joe has the support of the organization to sign who he wants because the organization realizes Joe has a very good grasp on signing guys for what he thinks they are worth.

It remains to be seen whether or not Joe made the right selection, and Hobgood very well may or may not end up the best of the three, but in the end, Joe took the guy he wanted and it wasn't because of some perceived budget constraints.

Well, what I find interesting is that BA has completed all of its research for the prospect book, including speaking to Appy scouts/coaches about Hobgood and speaking with COL coaches/scouts about Matzek's time in instructionals. So there is more info available to BA now, more info available to the teams that drafted the two, and I think more substantive appraisal from BA based on that info.

Regarding Jordan not thinking anyone was "special", I absolutely take him at his word. But I think it's worth noting when others in the industry (especially a source as thorough as BA) expresses a contrary opinion.

In the Wheeler write-up, BA calls his stuff "frontline starter" stuff and notes that he is more advanced than was Bumgarner coming out of HS.

In the Matzek write-up, BA projects Matzek as a "frontline starter" and states that despite being conservative with HS arms, COL was "impressed with how Matzek handle instructional league" and he will be the first HS player that COL allows to debut at full-season ball.

As you say, time will tell. If these two kids actually DO progress quickly for their first two years, I think it's fair (in this instance) to question Jordan's "no one special" appraisal of the first round HS arms.

And, yes, when Matzek/Wheeler struggle and Hobgood performs, I'll be right here passing it along. I'm much more interested in the discussion than the resolution, and I of course hope Hobgood becomes a terrific ML player -- I really am rooting hard for the kid.

[mikezpen]

Until I see otherwise, I'll maintain that the Orioles' drafting went directly south after Matusz, at least the early rounds. And I think it was money (as usual).

[wickedwitch]

I much preferred Matzek, but I don't see him close to Kershaw or Porcello's level. I'd be curious to see how BA would compare them in more direct ways than their respective prospect rankings.

I know it'll never happen, but I'd love to see exactly what Jordan prefers about Hobgood with respect to the other HS pitching prospects. What exactly didn't he like about Matzek and the others?

I know the "questions you'd ask MacPhail" thread turned into a joke, but I'd kill to be able to sit down with him or Jordan or anybody who was extremely knowledgeable about baseball and get their true and complete opinions on baseball stuff.

[Ruzious]

What's the point of having this discussion again now? Callis' ranking adds no new information, as we already knew that most people are higher on Matzek. I don't understand what there is to be said that hasn't already been said many times over.

When we have a horrible season, what helps make it bearable is the hope that we'll be "rewarded" with a building block draft pick. And when we picked a guy who was generally regarded as a mid to low 1st rounder, that was extremely disappointing and made it an issue that's going to be relevant until we see how these guys develop.

Personally, I still don't see the justification for taking him ahead of Green or Matzek - if money wasn't an issue - as Jordan insisted, and the only way of getting closure on it is by getting more information and seeing how they do.

[Stotle]

I much preferred Matzek, but I don't see him close to Kershaw or Porcello's level. I'd be curious to see how BA would compare them in more direct ways than their respective prospect rankings.

I know it'll never happen, but I'd love to see exactly what Jordan prefers about Hobgood with respect to the other HS pitching prospects. What exactly didn't he like about Matzek and the others?

I know the "questions you'd ask MacPhail" thread turned into a joke, but I'd kill to be able to sit down with him or Jordan or anybody who was extremely knowledgeable about baseball and get their true and complete opinions on baseball stuff.

Matzek and Kershaw "Strengths" in out-of-high school write-up:

Scouts thought he was the best high school lefthander to come out of Southern California since Cole Hamels in 2002, and Matzek has better stuff. He has a legitimate four-pitch arsenal, starting with a fastball that sat at 90-94 mph for most of the spring before jumping to the upper 90s right before the draft. His curveball and slider are two distinct breaking pitches and both have the potential to become plus offerings. He also shows feel for a changeup, though he didn't need the pitch very often as an amateur. Matzek has an exceedingly smooth delivery and the ball comes out of his hand easily. He's athletic and repeats his mechanics well, which bodes well for his future control and command. His leadership is another trait that has him destined to be a staff ace. While he hasn't faced much adversity on the mound, he proved his toughness after his father Jeff, who had coached him since T-ball, was diagnosed with throat cancer while Matzek was a sophomore. He didn't let his father's illness affect his performance, and Jeff's cancer is now in remission.

Kershaw's stuff and body have plenty of projection, and his fastball is already well above-average. He paints both corners with 93-94 mph heat, topping out at 96. His curveball is a plus pitch with 71-77 mph velocity and 1-to-5 tilt. has feel for a circle changeup that could become a third above-average pitch. He fills the strike zone with all three of his pitches. He has a durable frame and repeats his delivery. Laid-back and affable off the field, he's hard-nosed and tough-minded on it.

[allstar1579]

I much preferred Matzek, but I don't see him close to Kershaw or Porcello's level. I'd be curious to see how BA would compare them in more direct ways than their respective prospect rankings.

I know it'll never happen, but I'd love to see exactly what Jordan prefers about Hobgood with respect to the other HS pitching prospects. What exactly didn't he like about Matzek and the others?

I know the "questions you'd ask MacPhail" thread turned into a joke, but I'd kill to be able to sit down with him or Jordan or anybody who was extremely knowledgeable about baseball and get their true and complete opinions on baseball stuff.

I did, but I was very high on Matzek. At the draft it looked like it was going to take a LOT to sign him though, liking him at $3.9 mil and liking him at $7 mil are two different things. It looked like it was going to take $6.5-$7 mil to get him, or you waste a pick, so if you don't feel like he's worth that much (or a little less maybe) then you have to look at other options.

I don't knock Jordan at all for looking at the bigger picture there, it's just disappointing to see that in the end the going back to school thing was a bluff and he took less than $4m, because he was most definitely worth that much.

From what I hear Jordan is a big believer in assigning a value to players. So if he decides his value for Matzek is $3-3.5m and for Hobgood it's $2-2.5m if Matzek is demanding $7m and Hobgood $2.5m then it works for him numbers wise to take Hobgood. It's hard with HS picks the way the system is because they can just not sign and go to college and come back in 3 years, where the team that takes them gets an extra pick next year, but they waste a year of development.

[bigelow]

I was a Matzek Fan as well. He was third on my board after Ackley. Allstar did a good job at convincing me this. I would have paid up to 5 million for him. Also something interesting, i would rather have the 5th pick this year. Could of had two of Tailon/Renaudo/Cole

[RandyM]

I did, but I was very high on Matzek. At the draft it looked like it was going to take a LOT to sign him though, liking him at $3.9 mil and liking him at $7 mil are two different things. It looked like it was going to take $6.5-$7 mil to get him, or you waste a pick, so if you don't feel like he's worth that much (or a little less maybe) then you have to look at other options.

I don't knock Jordan at all for looking at the bigger picture there, it's just disappointing to see that in the end the going back to school thing was a bluff and he took less than $4m, because he was most definitely worth that much.

From what I hear Jordan is a big believer in assigning a value to players. So if he decides his value for Matzek is $3-3.5m and for Hobgood it's $2-2.5m if Matzek is demanding $7m and Hobgood $2.5m then it works for him numbers wise to take Hobgood. It's hard with HS picks the way the system is because they can just not sign and go to college and come back in 3 years, where the team that takes them gets an extra pick next year, but they waste a year of development.

I have no problem if Jordan made that assessment. He can't grossly over pay for a player if he believes he is only so much better. He has a budget and he decided he would rather use that money other places.

I do have a problem with people saying money wasn't an issue. Money is an issue for every pick. And I am not calling Jordan a liar also. He isn't going to come out and discuss all the various details about each pick and what happened. Yes, he seems like an up front person, but there are some things you don't give complete full disclosure.

Also, people trying to "cover" that money wasn't a big issue with the fact that he they didn't like Matzek's make up or his demeanor. Wasn't Hobgood the guy that showed 2 or 3 weeks late because he wanted to go to the ESPY's? Didn't he also show up out of shape? Yet we insinuate that Matzek has makeup issues from a quote after signing or because he wanted to get paid? Lets give both guys the benefit of the doubt, they are 18 years old.

Overall, I wish we picked Matzek, but we didn't. I did like that Jordan spent money other places, we will see what happens over the next 8 years. I will be cheering for Hobgood!

Wish QBS was around. Would make this thread a lot more interesting instead of SG going on his rant on Green . And I do agree that we should have taken Green if we weren't taking Matzek. Hobgood is too far away to help during our "window".

[Stotle]

I think something that would be interesting to kick around is whether Jordan's strengths are best tapped into in the mid- to late-picks in a round. BAL has been so bad that Jordan has selected at the top -- this past draft seems like it could have been achieved by drafting at 15th as easily as it was drafting (which makes me hopeful that BAL will be able to bring in good talent regardless of where they draft). I'm just not certain that picking in the first handful of picks is ever fully utilized unless you are committed to spending on the talent that's there.

Again, who knows. But I'm definitely going to think on it. As I said, I think Wheeler was a pretty excellent compromise between Matzek's demands and Hobgoods lesser projection. Shrug.

[allstar1579]

I think something that would be interesting to kick around is whether Jordan's strengths are best tapped into in the mid- to late-picks in a round. BAL has been so bad that Jordan has selected at the top -- this past draft seems like it could have been achieved by drafting at 15th as easily as it was drafting (which makes me hopeful that BAL will be able to bring in good talent regardless of where they draft). I'm just not certain that picking in the first handful of picks is ever fully utilized unless you are committed to spending on the talent that's there.

Again, who knows. But I'm definitely going to think on it. As I said, I think Wheeler was a pretty excellent compromise between Matzek's demands and Hobgoods lesser projection. Shrug.

Still agree with you. I could have been very happy with Wheeler as well as a compromise. I'm really interested to see how this year is going to play out, because although there is a little more pitching talent at the top, I see a few of them asking for a good chunk of change and I wonder if there will be a big discrepancy between the way our front office values them and the way they value themselves, even moreso now that we see what Matzek signed for in the end.

[RandyM]

Still agree with you. I could have been very happy with Wheeler as well as a compromise. I'm really interested to see how this year is going to play out, because although there is a little more pitching talent at the top, I see a few of them asking for a good chunk of change and I wonder if there will be a big discrepancy between the way our front office values them and the way they value themselves, even moreso now that we see what Matzek signed for in the end.

I think that is the kicker. If Matzek signed for 7 Mill plus or didn't sign at all, I would feel much better. But for him to sign for not drastically more than Hobgood hurts.

[btdart20]

RandyM makes some excellent points.

Money is always an issues, especially when you're in smaller markets in the AL East! But at the same time, Joe Jordan has to play strategist and psychologist as well.

He's not going to say that he was budgeted up to $3M for round 1. How would that impact next years draft? How would that impact the free agent perception? Or the teams' perception? Or the fanbase for that matter?

I imagine Joe Jordan was given X dollars to work with for all draft signings. The O's can't afford putting all of their money/risk of the draft in the first 1-2 rounds of the draft. The odds of missing are too great. So they spread the money around by drafting and signing overslot guys in the later rounds.

But man, if Matzek turns into Lincecum and Hobgood turns into Bill Rowell...

[Tony-OH]

Well, what I find interesting is that BA has completed all of its research for the prospect book, including speaking to Appy scouts/coaches about Hobgood and speaking with COL coaches/scouts about Matzek's time in instructionals. So there is more info available to BA now, more info available to the teams that drafted the two, and I think more substantive appraisal from BA based on that info.

Regarding Jordan not thinking anyone was "special", I absolutely take him at his word. But I think it's worth noting when others in the industry (especially a source as thorough as BA) expresses a contrary opinion.

In the Wheeler write-up, BA calls his stuff "frontline starter" stuff and notes that he is more advanced than was Bumgarner coming out of HS.

In the Matzek write-up, BA projects Matzek as a "frontline starter" and states that despite being conservative with HS arms, COL was "impressed with how Matzek handle instructional league" and he will be the first HS player that COL allows to debut at full-season ball.

As you say, time will tell. If these two kids actually DO progress quickly for their first two years, I think it's fair (in this instance) to question Jordan's "no one special" appraisal of the first round HS arms.

And, yes, when Matzek/Wheeler struggle and Hobgood performs, I'll be right here passing it along. I'm much more interested in the discussion than the resolution, and I of course hope Hobgood becomes a terrific ML player -- I really am rooting hard for the kid.

You have every right to question whether Joe made the right decision in selecting Hobgood over Matzek/Wheeler and even whether his "no one was special" evaluation was on the mark.

Again, I can only pass on what he's told me in our conversations and what I've heard from other scouts in the organization. I don't even have a problem with people ranking Matzek/Wheeler over Hobgood right now or even during the draft. I have no knife in this fight at all because I don't follow these guys close enough until the O's draft them.

Perhaps Joe would have selected Matzek or Wheeler had they been willing to sign for slot? I really don't have an answer for this. What I do know is that he did not think they were worth the money they floated before the draft. So even if he thinks Hobgood is the weaker of the three (He didn't by the way) and if he thinks there's not a ton of difference, then why not sign the one guy he can get signed quickly and has great intangibles to boot?

I'm sure these three will be linked for awhile due to their draft history, but as I know you know, it's not how they are ranked today that matters but how they are ranked six years from now that's more important.