Sign Holliday or trade prospects?

[chamdog]

Would you rather sign Holliday as a FA or trade prospects such as Tillman, Arrieta and Snyder for an established bat?

These seem to be our best options before 2011 for an established big bat that will make a difference over the LT for the Orioles.

Holliday will likely cost 6/108-114 guaranteed with maybe some option years to boost the package. And he'd cause us to lose a third round draft pick.

Trading our young prospects, especially our pitching prospects like Tillman could give you a bat like Miguel Cabrera for instance, but then you'd be paying him 120+ million and you'd lose the prospects. Ditto for Adrian Gonzalez.

So which would you rather see MacPhail do?

Trade Tillman ,Jake A.,Jones,and Snyder for A gone The OF does not need addressed.Pie center Riemold LF KaiksRF

[Hooded Viper]

Trade Tillman ,Jake A.,Jones,and Snyder for A gone The OF does not need addressed.Pie center Riemold LF KaiksRF

Wow, our biggest problem is starting pitching yet you want to trade two of our best, and our starting CFer for 2 years of AGon. If I am Angelos and you come to me for approval of this trade, you are FIRED.

[Roll Tide]

Trade Tillman ,Jake A.,Jones,and Snyder for A gone The OF does not need addressed.Pie center Riemold LF KaiksRF

If you trading Jones I doubt you give up much more than Jones...Say maybe Jones & Arrieta or Jones & Hernandez.

[tilgaham]

http://www.eap.partners.org/WorkLife/Addiction/Compulsive_Spending/What_is_Spending_Addiction.asp

Best. Post. Ever.

:clap3:

[DrungoHazewood]

BRob was a FB +7 in 06, 0 in 07, -4 in 08, -10 in 09. He is definitely declining, IMO.

By UZR he was above average in 2006, about average in '07-'08, and about a -8 in 2009. We'll see if he can reverse or arrest his decline in 2010.

Unless he gets so bad that he's killing the team defense or just can't play second base any more I think the contract was still good. A league-average player in full-time play is worth about $10M on (MLB's version of) the open market. Roberts is still a much better than average overall player.

[DrungoHazewood]

As for the original question, I picked trade prospects. But that was assuming Snyder, or maybe Arrieta-level prospects for a guy like Blanks. Not something loopy like Matusz + a bunch of stuff for Fielder.

My real answer is "You don't have to do anything big right now. Thinking every single moment is the most important one, and that now always has the best options is how you get in trouble."

[Moose Milligan]

Homegrown talent doesn't equal superior talent.

What the deuce?

First of all, superior talent was at one time homegrown. I'm really not trying to be obtuse here...I just don't see how this statement is at all valid. Your post assumes that we can't grow anything superior.

Second, this rebuild revolves around the young talent we have, especially the young pitching. If they tank then we could add Holliday AND A-Gon and it wouldn't make a difference.

Do people not get that? You could add TWO big bats and it won't matter if the pitching goes south.

[Moose Milligan]

My real answer is "You don't have to do anything big right now. Thinking every single moment is the most important one, and that now always has the best options is how you get in trouble."

Whoa. That's awesome.

I predict a fair amount of people will read that and react this way:

<img src = "http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b353/kidcruisin/maxwell_smart__confused.gif">

[Sports Guy]

By UZR he was above average in 2006, about average in '07-'08, and about a -8 in 2009. We'll see if he can reverse or arrest his decline in 2010.

Unless he gets so bad that he's killing the team defense or just can't play second base any more I think the contract was still good. A league-average player in full-time play is worth about $10M on (MLB's version of) the open market. Roberts is still a much better than average overall player.

None of this means they should have given him the deal he got though...Look at what they could have signed someone like Hudson for.

This is kind of my point when it comes to Holliday...It sounds like he is going to get a contract that will be fair in terms of what he will give you.

Does that mean we should sign him? No...but then again, if you were ok with the BRob contract itself(ie value vs what he signed for), then you shouldn't be too upset with what Holliday is likely to get.

[DrungoHazewood]

None of this means they should have given him the deal he got though...Look at what they could have signed someone like Hudson for.

This is kind of my point when it comes to Holliday...It sounds like he is going to get a contract that will be fair in terms of what he will give you.

Does that mean we should sign him? No...but then again, if you were ok with the BRob contract itself(ie value vs what he signed for), then you shouldn't be too upset with what Holliday is likely to get.

Except that Holliday is going to get paid more than twice as much, for somewhere between two and four years longer. Signing a guy through his early-to-mid 30s for $11M per is radically different than signing a guy through his age 36 or 37 season at $17M or more per.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to be in favor of a shorter, cheaper deal for a fan favorite at a position of need like Roberts, but be very against a much longer, more expensive deal for a Holliday.

Also, I don't think it's a good idea to count on being able to sign an average or better second baseman for a short, cheap, below-market deal every offseason. Hudson may be more the exception than the rule.

[Sports Guy]

Except that Holliday is going to get paid more than twice as much, for somewhere between two and four years longer. Signing a guy through his early-to-mid 30s for $11M per is radically different than signing a guy through his age 36 or 37 season at $17M or more per.

But he is also a guy that is a much better hitter/player, position be damned. And, with the history of second baseman declining early in their 30s, how much of a difference is it really?

And the money shouldn't effect the Orioles all that much because they have so many cheap players for the forseeable future.

Of course, if he flops, it will hurt them some but its hard to believe that Holliday will be much worse than a 10 million dollar player at any point in the deal.

Also, I don't think it's a good idea to count on being able to sign an average or better second baseman for a short, cheap, below-market deal every offseason. Hudson may be more the exception than the rule.

Maybe...but between trades and the availablity of second baseman seemingly quite frequently, the case can be made that you could have gotten good second base production fairly easily.

[DrungoHazewood]

But he is also a guy that is a much better hitter/player, position be damned. And, with the history of second baseman declining early in their 30s, how much of a difference is it really?

And the money shouldn't effect the Orioles all that much because they have so many cheap players for the forseeable future.

Of course, if he flops, it will hurt them some but its hard to believe that Holliday will be much worse than a 10 million dollar player at any point in the deal.

I don't want to look like I'm completely and totally against any Holliday signing, so I'll preface this by saying there is a chance he could make a 6- or 7-year deal look ok. And a small chance it could look great.

But the risk is there that he's going to tank, and the longer the deal the better the chances. Look at Holliday's BP comps. Sure, #1 is Dave Winfield, and he was good until he was like 84 years old. But #2 is Dave Parker, who had three decent years after he turned 30, only one that would have justified the kind of contract we're talking here. #3 is Bob Watson, whose last really good year was at 32. #4 is Cliff Floyd, who hasn't had 400 PAs in a season since he was 32. Going down the list 2/3rds of the players are on a whos-who of guys who were done at 34 like Richie Zisk and Tim Salmon and Ivan Calderon and Jim Rice.

I think people tend to overestimate the odds of a star at 30 being good at 35. Most of the players like Holliday were either too injured or too unproductive to even be full-timers by the middle of most of the proposed deals we've been throwing around. Most. It's not like this is a small chance. I'd guess the odds are around 75% than Holliday isn't worth half of what he'll be paid the last 3-4 years of a 7-year deal.

Yes, the O's do have the money now. But in 2014 do you want them to punt on a Matusz or a Tillman extension because their .750 OPS LFer who's playing 100 games a year is making $18M per through 2016 or 2017?

[Stotle]

But he is also a guy that is a much better hitter/player, position be damned. And, with the history of second baseman declining early in their 30s, how much of a difference is it really?

And the money shouldn't effect the Orioles all that much because they have so many cheap players for the forseeable future.

Of course, if he flops, it will hurt them some but its hard to believe that Holliday will be much worse than a 10 million dollar player at any point in the deal.

Maybe...but between trades and the availablity of second baseman seemingly quite frequently, the case can be made that you could have gotten good second base production fairly easily.

If we are going to really simplify this comparison, can't we just say:

• The Roberts deal was "meh". Probably not great, but not a disaster.
• The Roberts deal didn't complicate matters by forcing another set of moves so as to not depreciate BAL's assets.
• The Holliday deal would likely be "meh" at the prices SG discusses. Probably not great, but not a disaster from a value standpoint.
• The Holliday deal complicates matters some by forcing BAL to move one or more players so as not to make redundant and less valuable (in trade negotiations) players like Scott/Pie/Reimold.

• BAL won't kill themselves with "meh" deals, but fully utilizing assets to catch and pass NYA//BOS will likely require more "good" moves than "meh" moves.

I think that's where I am with Holliday. His main value is in his availability now. While there is no guarantee that comparable bats and better fits become available in the next 12 months, I'm confident they will (via trade or FA). I find it hard to believe that Holliday is the last chance any team in baseball has at landing a middle-of-the-order bat in the next 12 months.

[JTrea81]

I think people tend to overestimate the odds of a star at 30 being good at 35. Most of the players like Holliday were either too injured or too unproductive to even be full-timers by the middle of most of the proposed deals we've been throwing around. Most. It's not like this is a small chance. I'd guess the odds are around 75% than Holliday isn't worth half of what he'll be paid the last 3-4 years of a 7-year deal.

How many of those were Boras clients though? Boras clients have access to state of the art conditioning facilities, their own personal staff including trainers, nutritionists etc.

You look at the contracts that have been signed by Damon, Beltran and other Boras position players. I would say the vast majority have lived up to or exceeded those contracts with their performance.

[waroriole]

How many of those were Boras clients though? Boras clients have access to state of the art conditioning facilities, their own personal staff including trainers, nutritionists etc.

You look at the contracts that have been signed by Damon, Beltran and other Boras position players. I would say the vast majority have lived up to or exceeded those contracts with their performance.

Sometimes I think you work for Boras.