Sign Holliday or trade prospects?

[El Gordo]

Sometimes I think you work for Boras.

What do you mean, he is Boras.:laughlol:

[JTrea81]

If we are going to really simplify this comparison, can't we just say:

I think that's where I am with Holliday. His main value is in his availability now. While there is no guarantee that comparable bats and better fits become available in the next 12 months, I'm confident they will (via trade or FA). I find it hard to believe that Holliday is the last chance any team in baseball has at landing a middle-of-the-order bat in the next 12 months.

So you would rather trade prospects?

Or do you think you'd get more bang for your buck in 2012 with a 36 year old Derrek Lee or a 34 year old Carlos Pena, than a 32 year old Matt Holliday, if you can even sign them away from their teams?

[DuffMan]

How many of those were Boras clients though? Boras clients have access to state of the art conditioning facilities, their own personal staff including trainers, nutritionists etc.

You look at the contracts that have been signed by Damon, Beltran and other Boras position players. I would say the vast majority have lived up to or exceeded those contracts with their performance.

Where do you think most of the other players in MLB are working out a prison yard weight room??? To suggest that these guys have better facilities, staff, trainers, nutrionists etc because they are Boras clients is absurd. I guess Roberts and Jones and anyone else that goes to the Athletes Performance Facility in AZ is actually not doing as much good as some place being run by Boras.

[Lucky Jim]

If we are going to really simplify this comparison, can't we just say:

• The Roberts deal was "meh". Probably not great, but not a disaster.
• The Roberts deal didn't complicate matters by forcing another set of moves so as to not depreciate BAL's assets.
• The Holliday deal would likely be "meh" at the prices SG discusses. Probably not great, but not a disaster from a value standpoint.
• The Holliday deal complicates matters some by forcing BAL to move one or more players so as not to make redundant and less valuable (in trade negotiations) players like Scott/Pie/Reimold.

• BAL won't kill themselves with "meh" deals, but fully utilizing assets to catch and pass NYA//BOS will likely require more "good" moves than "meh" moves.

I think that's where I am with Holliday. His main value is in his availability now. While there is no guarantee that comparable bats and better fits become available in the next 12 months, I'm confident they will (via trade or FA). I find it hard to believe that Holliday is the last chance any team in baseball has at landing a middle-of-the-order bat in the next 12 months.

Yeah, this has been my take all along. If we signed him, I'd be pretty excited to watch his production over the next few years and I'd be able to overlook the overall "meh-ness" of what I imagine the deal will turn out to be. But it's all of the secondary implications, and the trades that might be required, and the lack of marginal return on the investment that make me perfectly fine w/ not making a push.

As for the second component, about player availability, I think this is also spot-on. Just because we can't predict availability doesn't mean that there's scarcity. Players routinely become available. And if they're not being floated on an open market, then creativity is always an option.

[JTrea81]

Where do you think most of the other players in MLB are working out a prison yard weight room??? To suggest that these guys have better facilities, staff, trainers, nutrionists etc because they are Boras clients is absurd. I guess Roberts and Jones and anyone else that goes to the Athletes Performance Facility in AZ is actually not doing as much good as some place being run by Boras.

Read this article and then see what you think:

http://www.menshealth.com/men/fitness/sports/sports-training-for-baseball-superstars/article/e4ef76391c360210VgnVCM10000013281eac

Interestingly enough, Holliday is mentioned quite prominently...

[Lucky Jim]

So you would rather trade prospects?

Or do you think you'd get more bang for your buck in 2012 with a 36 year old Derrek Lee or a 34 year old Carlos Pena, than a 32 year old Matt Holliday, if you can even sign them away from their teams?

Where has it been established that you can accurately pre-determine what's available or not? You're inability to visualize a solution other than Holliday doesn't mean there's not a solution.

Further, isn't the question hopelessly vague? What prospects are we talking about?

Even further, aren't there third options? What if Guthrie has a bounce-back year to a sub-4.00 ERA? Can we swap him + 1 for a big, young, MLB-ready 1B bat?

[jdouble777]

1) Sign Holliday

2) Trade Snyder, Pie, Scott, and Arrieta to Padres for A Gon

*Or trade this package to whatever team will offer something sweet

Lineup:

Roberts

Markakis

Holliday

A Gon

Weiters

Reimold

Jones

Atkins

Izzy

Game Over. We Win. World Series, this season.

[Stotle]

So you would rather trade prospects?

Or do you think you'd get more bang for your buck in 2012 with a 36 year old Derrek Lee or a 34 year old Carlos Pena, than a 32 year old Matt Holliday, if you can even sign them away from their teams?

If necessary, I'd trade redundancies. I don't know how to appropriately gauge what I'd do with Pena/Lee without 1) seeing how they perform this year, and 2) seeing what the price tag looks like next year.

The broader point is that there will be ways to improve the team. BOS tried to lock-up Bay. When that didn't work, they shifted to a pitching/defense approach to the off-season. The net was an improvement for BOS, adding to a solid rotation and adding good defense in the OF (potentially 3B if they land Beltre).

Just because BAL doesn't land a X-ish WAR improvement through Holliday doesn't mean that the team can't be improved by the same amount through different avenues over the course of the next 12 months. It's how the good GMs do things. Bad GMs convince themselves that any single player is a MUST.

[Hank Scorpio]

1) Sign Holliday

2) Trade Snyder, Pie, Scott, and Arrieta to Padres for A Gon

*Or trade this package to whatever team will offer something sweet

Lineup:

Roberts

Markakis

Holliday

A Gon

Weiters

Reimold

Jones

Atkins

Izzy

Game Over. We Win. World Series, this season.

So what if "something sweet" is in our lineup instead of "A-Gon?" Would we still win the World Series?

And what about our pitching, does that not matter?

[Sports Guy]

I definitely do agree the idea that other guys will become available.

But you have to ask yourself a few questions:

1) Who are you willing to give up to acquire that player?

2) How long if that player under contract for?

3) Is it better to spend money or players?

4) Is Holliday the most likely big bat FA that we can acquire over the next few years?

For me, I have no problem trading for a player vs signing Holliday....But we are going to have to trade some of our "second tier" guys to get them or else I wouldn't want to make the trade...Now, our second tier guys carry a ton of value IMO..but that doesn't mean they will net us who we need to get.

I do think, without question, that Holliday is going to be the best bet for us in terms of a big bat FA. I think people are living in fantasy land if they think the Orioles are going to sign someone like Fielder...it just isn't happening unless his performance declines, he has injury issues, etc...

[JTrea81]

Just because BAL doesn't land a X-ish WAR improvement through Holliday doesn't mean that the team can't be improved by the same amount through different avenues over the course of the next 12 months. It's how the good GMs do things. Bad GMs convince themselves that any single player is a MUST.

He's not a must, rather the best opportunity to land a big FA bat for the LT between this and next offseason:

-RH bat that is proven at the cleanup spot and is above average in the field.

-Lack of competition= reduced price

-Has two friends on the team so he might actually want to play in Baltimore

-Will only lose a third round pick to sign as opposed to a second or first round pick next season.

-Will still be in his prime years (31-33) when the Orioles are supposed to be competitive (2011-2013).

Those simply conditions do not exist for another FA before 2011.

If MacPhail doesn't want to go that route, than fine, but Holliday adds likely 25 wins over the next 6 years without having to trade any prospects. And he only takes up one roster spot as opposed to the mutiple players MacPhail could acquire to make up those 25 WAR.

[DrungoHazewood]

How many of those were Boras clients though? Boras clients have access to state of the art conditioning facilities, their own personal staff including trainers, nutritionists etc.

You're kidding, right?

You look at the contracts that have been signed by Damon, Beltran and other Boras position players. I would say the vast majority have lived up to or exceeded those contracts with their performance.

I think we can probably find more than a few counter examples:

Brad Wilkerson's last three years he was paid $12M, was worth -$5M.

With Pudge it's kind of hard to quantify catcher defense, but before his cheap '09 deal it's been a long time since the stuff we can quantify was worth more than he was paid. Similar story for Jason Varitek.

The Andruw Jones deal with the Dodgers has been one of the uglier contracts in recent history.

Since 2004 Garret Anderson has been paid nearly $50M for about $14M worth of play.

Over the last two years Boras has gotten Wily Taveras $4.5M for being one of the worst regulars in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez has earned his salary in one of the previous six years. Last year he earned $19M for being a below-average player.

And you smartly omitted pitchers from the discussion, because any number of pitchers represented by Boras have been huge busts.

[Stotle]

He's not a must, rather the best opportunity to land a big FA bat for the LT between this and next offseason:

-RH bat that is proven at the cleanup spot and is above average in the field.

-Lack of competition= reduced price

-Has two friends on the team so he might actually want to play in Baltimore

-Will only lose a third round pick to sign as opposed to a second or first round pick next season.

-Will still be in his prime years (31-33) when the Orioles are supposed to be competitive (2011-2013).

Those simply conditions do not exist for another FA before 2011.

If MacPhail doesn't want to go that route, than fine, but Holliday adds likely 25 wins over the next 6 years without having to trade any prospects. And he only takes up one roster spot as opposed to the mutiple players MacPhail could acquire to make up those 25 WAR.

Holliday is a 25-win improvement over Reimold/Pie + someone like Pena?

[DrungoHazewood]

I do think, without question, that Holliday is going to be the best bet for us in terms of a big bat FA. I think people are living in fantasy land if they think the Orioles are going to sign someone like Fielder...it just isn't happening unless his performance declines, he has injury issues, etc...

Then why do you think they'd sign Holliday? Why do you think they'd outbid the Cards by $millions and add more guaranteed years?

I don't think Matt Holliday thinks the O's are the best fit for him unless they make him an offer he can't refuse. And offers that good are probably not going to be worthwhile for the offering team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Holliday is a 25-win improvement over Reimold/Pie + someone like Pena?

There has to be an assumption that Reimold, Pie, and others displaced by Holliday would be traded for equal value at positions of need. Even if that's the case I don't think the numbers add up.