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The team's situation next winter will be very different


Frobby

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Same story, different year.

Yep, I'm guessing (if MacPhail doesn't do anything major this offseason) about mid-season after DT has been fired and the Orioles are on their way to losing season #13 and the "excitement" from the young players has worn off, that people will realize what a missed opportunity this offseason will have been...

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Same story, different year.

I disagree with this. I think Frobby is exactly right. Next offseason we SHOULD know exactly which players can be counted on and which players cannot. At that point you try and fill the weaknesses with FA or Trades. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to throw a ton of money at Holliday when we still don't know if we have someone who can be equally or even better than him in Reimold and Pie. I just think you have to know whats in your cupboard before deciding to go to the grocery store.

Now that being said, we have a definite need at SS and I really hope AM addresses that this season. But we shall see.

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Yep, I'm guessing (if MacPhail doesn't do anything major this offseason) about mid-season after DT has been fired and the Orioles are on their way to losing season #13 and the "excitement" from the young players has worn off, that people will realize what a missed opportunity this offseason will have been...

Wow dude. You really need to take a break from this team for a while until you realize that 1) you're not as big a fan of them as you thought, or 2) you realize that they aren't the DEVIL that you think they are. Either way, your doom and glood comments on EVERY single topic on EVERY single thread is old!

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Agreed. I've been hearing about this "next winter" for quite some time now. :scratchchinhmm:

Not from AM you haven't.

Look, I think it's fine if people disagree with how he looks at things. What I just don't get is the routine occurrence of people ignoring what he said. He has been remarkably good at saying what he intends to do. He said that he needs this coming season to see how things shake out so he will better know exactly what needs doing next off season. It's not like he's been coy about this, he's said it quite clearly. So, why do people pretend otherwise? Is it because you're not paying attention? Or is it because you don't care what he said his plans are, you'd rather just pretend that he said something else?

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Not from AM you haven't.

Look, I think it's fine if people disagree with how he looks at things. What I just don't get is the routine occurrence of people ignoring what he said. He has been remarkably good at saying what he intends to do. He said that he needs this coming season to see how things shake out so he will better know exactly what needs doing next off season. It's not like he's been coy about this, he's said it quite clearly. So, why do people pretend otherwise? Is it because you're not paying attention? Or is it because you don't care what he said his plans are, you'd rather just pretend that he said something else?

Who cares what he says? I care about what he actually does.

We don't win games because he means well.

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Next offseason we SHOULD know exactly which players can be counted on and which players cannot. At that point you try and fill the weaknesses with FA or Trades. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to throw a ton of money at Holliday when we still don't know if we have someone who can be equally or even better than him in Reimold and Pie. I just think you have to know whats in your cupboard before deciding to go to the grocery store.

Couldn't agree more. A 100mm contract makes no sense if you have a decent chance at having one already (for next to nothing). Reimold could be a Holliday within a year (doubtful, but he's got less than 1 ML season) and Matusz or Bergeson could put up Lackey-type numbers this year. It's a huge stretch, but most projections put some of the younguns up pretty high. Why "replace" them w/ less than a year under their belt? If we see DCabrera-esque mediocrity this year, then spend away - and I won't say a word about it... when sober.

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If there aren't a few major moves by this time next year then BAL is in serious trouble. The clock is now running on AM. He has a year, but there's enough info right now to at least start targeting opportunities to bring in pieces. Next off-season he'll NEED to make moves, rather than just keeping his eye out for the opportunity to make a big move.

Well put, and dead on.

It's also time for the younger core players to start establish themselves with some solid seasons.

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Don't get me wrong, the young talent this team has to have everyone excited and we should be in better position next offseason.

But these promises of next offseason being our offseason are false IMO.

Can we see them actually do something before we declare every offseason as "our offseason"!!!!?

When have I ever said anything like that? I'm usually someone who doesn't even like to discuss the offseason much. For me to write a thread now about what the situation will be next winter is highly out of character for me. And God knows I'm not making any promises about what will happen. I just have a feeling that the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and the pecking order among some of our younger guys, are going to be a lot more apparent next winter than they are now, and that kind of clarity makes it easier to act.

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Not from AM you haven't.

Look, I think it's fine if people disagree with how he looks at things. What I just don't get is the routine occurrence of people ignoring what he said. He has been remarkably good at saying what he intends to do. He said that he needs this coming season to see how things shake out so he will better know exactly what needs doing next off season. It's not like he's been coy about this, he's said it quite clearly. So, why do people pretend otherwise? Is it because you're not paying attention? Or is it because you don't care what he said his plans are, you'd rather just pretend that he said something else?

What he has been coy about is when specifically the fans can expect the Orioles to have a winning team.
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What he has been coy about is when specifically the fans can expect the Orioles to have a winning team.

I believe he was pretty cavalier about his intention to be a bat shopper this offseason as well. Barring a major addition via trade, I will bet he regrets setting that expectation.

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Beyond the fact that we'll have much more clarity on the current players next year, we'll also have a higher baseline in wins to build on. I'll be surprised if the current team doesn't win 75 games, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised by 85. So we'll have the confluence of two big things: knowing what we have and need, and the knowledge that adding an impact player to address a need is prudent in this part of the success cycle.

Also, this offseason is far from done.

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When have I ever said anything like that? I'm usually someone who doesn't even like to discuss the offseason much. For me to write a thread now about what the situation will be next winter is highly out of character for me. And God knows I'm not making any promises about what will happen. I just have a feeling that the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and the pecking order among some of our younger guys, are going to be a lot more apparent next winter than they are now, and that kind of clarity makes it easier to act.

I think we only have a clearer picture if we have breakout seasons from a bunch of these guys. If our "cream of the crop" is average this season, then what do we really know?

I think we all HOPE that the picture is clearer that we have a bunch of young studs for many years to come but I can certainly see a more likely scenario that things remain muddled and unclear. I again reference Markakis. We still don't know if he is the difference maker we thought he would be.

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What he has been coy about is when specifically the fans can expect the Orioles to have a winning team.

If I were him I'd be coy, too. The error bars are probably +/- 10 wins (or more). The Mets were a serious contender last year, then they had, what, three potential HOFer miss significant parts of the year with injuries?

I'd say just what MacPhail has - he's building the best organization he can, as quickly as is prudent. Absolute proclamations set yourself up for failure.

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I think we only have a clearer picture if we have breakout seasons from a bunch of these guys. If our "cream of the crop" is average this season, then what do we really know?

That impact talents need to be brought in from outside to augment a probably average core. If Jones and Markakis and Reimold are just ok this year, then you bring in a star to help them, you're that much better off if some of them have a breakout in 2011.

You'll certainly know a lot more if Snyder and Bell have .730 OPSes in Norfolk, or if Arrieta blows out a UCL.

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