The team's situation next winter will be very different

[Mackus]

The situation next Winter should be completely different for the Orioles. I think that's a time when they really should start to take on some risk. Sign guys that you think will be very effective for the next 3 years even if they probably will decline for a couple years beyond that. Don't worry about blocking someone at AA or with minimal experience at AAA.

In 2011, I want to be competitive. That doesn't mean its the playoffs or bust, but if we're not in the conversation in September, the year will have been a failure and I'll very strongly start to doubt MacPhail's ability to take us from a developing team to a contending team. Not being within at least a small handful of games of .500 this season will arouse the same sense of doubt. He did great at taking us from a directionless loser to a strongly developing and promising team, but nobody knows if he's the man for the next step or not, just have to hope that he is.

[El Gordo]

Who cares what he says? I care about what he actually does.

We don't win games because he means well.

You should, because so far he has done what he said he would do.

[Going Underground]

I think we should be aspiring to be a playoff contender in 2011, just not at the price of jeopardizing long-term success in 2012-15. But ask this question again after 2010 is over. If we've won 85 games at the end of this year, that's one thing; if we've won 75, that's something else.

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

[Shopay]

I've been thinking about what the team's situation will be like next winter, and what challenges they will be facing.

Pitching

Millwood: hopefully he will have done well enough in 2010 to earn Type A status, and the team can offer him arbitration and either retain him or get draft picks.

Guthrie: if he has a pretty strong rebound, he'll be two years away from free agency and pretty attractive trade bait, especially if enough of the younger pitchers have come through.

Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen: hopefully they leave no doubt that they belong in the rotation and those are three spots we can just penciil in for the following 5 seasons.

Hernandez/Berken: you hope they settle in as useful bullpen pieces, and/or prove capable of earning a back of the rotation spot if someone else is injured or falters.

Arrieta/Erbe: by the end of the year, their minor league apprenticeships are over, and perhaps (especially in Arrieta's case) they've had some chance to show what they can do at the major league level.

Britton: you hope he has a successful AA campaign, perhaps earning a promotion to Norfolk at mid-season or a little later, making him a candidate to contribute at the major league level some time in 2011.

Patton: he has either come back stronger, in whcih case he could have a major league role sometime in 2010, or he really hasn't progressed much, in which case you can pretty much write him off as a significant asset after the 2010 season.

That is a ton of information we are going to have by the end of 2010, and we could be in a true position of strength by season's end, able to trade some pitching for other needs. I wouldn't have dealt any pitching this offseason, but next winter we may well be in a position to do so. Note I didn't address the pure bullpen guys, including Uehara. Certainly their seasons have an impact on next offseason, too, but I don't think it's as dramatic.

Hitting

Jones: Does he stay healthy and continue improving at a good rate? If so, do we extend him next offseason?

Pie/Reimold: How much playing time do each of them get? Do they both build on what they accomplished in 2009, or do they regress? If both of them have good showings and Jones does as well, do we move one of them next winter?

Scott: can he avoid the steakiness that has plagued him? Will he be on the roster next October? He's probably the biggest candidate for a trade before then.

Shortstop: what are we doing here? Can we trade for a young, long term piece, or find a veteran with a solid glove but a much better bat than Izzy?

Bell/Snyder: much like Arrieta and Erbe, by the end of 2010 their minor league apprenticeships are over, hopefully they have gotten some significant major league exposure and the team needs to decide whether to commit to giving them major playing time in 2011.

Atkins: does he do enough in 2010 to justify exercising his option? Is he trade bait? Has he done enough to cause doubt whether he deserves to start in 2011 over either Snyder or Bell?

Again, that's a lot of information to take in. I should add that the minor league performances of Joseph, Waring, and Florimon also bear watching.

I think you will see the O's have a very active winter next year. I could see one or two pretty major trades going down, with real talent flowing both directions so the O's can eliminate some surpluses and shore up their weaknesses. I think the O's will be in a much better position to make those kinds of moves next winter, when a lot of the questions posed above are answered.

FTR, I think you're right. AM has stated before that he believes a key to making good decisions is having as much information as possible. Next year he should have enough information and surplus talent to make some significant moves to plug the O's holes. To me, next year's off season is huge and will tell me a lot about AM, and what we can expect from him in the future. If he continues to shop for "stop gaps," which I don't think will occur, then I will have to move to the crowd that doesn't think he can ever get us to the top. Time will tell.

[Mackus]

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

If we win only 65 games next year, I'll likely be calling for MacPhail's head. There would be no excuse to perform that poorly, even if we have a ton of injuries. If we do that, I'd probably be up for a "trade all the young talent and go for broke for 1-2 years and hope to get a lucky playoff berth" plan then start all over after that.

[Hank Scorpio]

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

It would require an absolute debacle for them to win 65 games next year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

Then MacPhail's tenure will have been a disaster and this organization probably faces another 2-3 years before it can even think about a.500 winning percentage.

Personally, I will jump ship. Caring about a perpetually losing team just ain't worth the time and trouble.

I don't see it happening, but anything is possible.

[DrungoHazewood]

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

Then all is lost. The latest attempt at rebuilding will have failed, and you're forced to start over again. For the O's to win 65 games this year you'd have to have almost complete failure/collapse/injury of almost all of the young players. It would be the low point in my Oriole fandom.

[Frobby]

If we win only 65 games next year, I'll likely be calling for MacPhail's head. There would be no excuse to perform that poorly, even if we have a ton of injuries. If we do that, I'd probably be up for a "trade all the young talent and go for broke for 1-2 years and hope to get a lucky playoff berth" plan then start all over after that.

It would require an absolute debacle for them to win 65 games next year.

Then MacPhail's tenure will have been a disaster and this organization probably faces another 2-3 years before it can even think about a.500 winning percentage.

Personally, I will jump ship. Caring about a perpetually losing team just ain't worth the time and trouble.

I don't see it happening, but anything is possible.

Ditto to the negative reactions if we only won 65 games, though I would never actually stop following or caring deeply about the team.

Even a win total in the low 70's would cause me to re-think the positions I've continuously taken over the last several years. It is time for this team to be play significantly better baseball than it was playing on the day MacPhail took over as GM. That is not too much to ask after 2.5 seasons.

[bird watcher]

The difference is in timing. That BP article I quoted a few days ago spells it out - I'm paraphrasing, these numbers aren't exact, but recent free agent signings typically lose 10% or 15% of their value in year 2, but more like 50% by year three. Almost all free agents are in the midst of their post-30 decline years. If you sign a 30-year-old guy today to compete in 2-3 years you'll likely be disappointed. A large majority of free agents will never be better than the day you sign them.

I see the argument and think that if AM believes in that argument, he will eventually talk himself out of ever signing a top FA. I hate to think that to be the case. Time will tell. I am also not against making a trade to fill the gaps but maybe AM isn't convinced that his scouts have identified who to let go of and who to keep? I just hope this year gives them a better indication and doesn't fall in the middle of obfuscation land.

[DrungoHazewood]

I see the argument and think that if AM believes in that argument, he will eventually talk himself out of ever signing a top FA. I hate to think that to be the case. Time will tell. I am also not against making a trade to fill the gaps but maybe AM isn't convinced that his scouts have identified who to let go of and who to keep? I just hope this year gives them a better indication and doesn't fall in the middle of obfuscation land.

The theory is that once you have a core that's capable of 80-85+ wins, then spending becomes worthwhile, you'll have a good chance at making back the revenues from the playoffs. I don't know if MacPhail sees it that way, but he's done or said nothing that indicates otherwise.

[jmmarvel]

What happens if we only win 65 games? We fire the manager and then what?

Do you say we are still rebuilding and do nothing. We have another season of near 100 losses and we have a real tough time of getting any premier free agents.

Sabotage other teams' stadiums, planes or busses. Throwing out big contracts willy nilly (best phrase ever) didn't work. If building a core and waiting for them to develop doesn't work either, we're screwed. Period. Theres no 3rd way to make a team competitive. 1 - 2 big contracts don't make a team. So it's not like spending big this offseason would have made us instantly a good team.

[JTrea81]

If we do that, I'd probably be up for a "trade all the young talent and go for broke for 1-2 years and hope to get a lucky playoff berth" plan then start all over after that.

We've likely blown our opportunties to do that until after 2011 when we can throw around money in FA again due to the plethora of FAs that will be available.

If our young talent fails, its trade value will drop and thus the return we get back.

Hence why I want us to trade the players we think won't make it now, before that happens for established talent so that we can avoid a collapse if some of that talent doesn't pan out.

Zrebiec said that he didn't see Tillman as much more than a mid rotation starter. That's somebody you've got to deal because of his hype of being a potential TOR if that's the case.

Tillman, Arrieta, Snyder and Pie have the most question marks out of that talent we have and you can put together a nice package for an established piece using those 4 players.

[Lucky Jim]

We've likely blown our opportunties to do that until after 2011 when we can throw around money in FA again due to the plethora of FAs that will be available.

If our young talent fails, its trade value will drop and thus the return we get back.

Hence why I want us to trade the players we think won't make it now, before that happens for established talent so that we can avoid a collapse if some of that talent doesn't pan out.

Zrebiec said that he didn't see Tillman as much more than a mid rotation starter. That's somebody you've got to deal because of his hype of being a potential TOR if that's the case.

Quit. Saying. This. Please. First, the comment from JZ was non-sense. "He's got tremendous upside" but "right now" he's "project" him as "mid-rotation." What does that even mean? Second, his FB isn't "straight." It's just complete non-sense.

And, just to be clear, you trust Zrebiec because you agree with him. But you don't trust the plethora of other professional analysts who think that Tillman is either our best young pitcher or a close second?

I like Zrebiec just fine, but what does he know that most of use here on the board don't know - let alone those who get paid to scout, analyze, and project prospects?

[JTrea81]

Just to be clear, you trust Zrebiec because you agree with him. But you don't trust the plethora of other professional analysts who think that Tillman is either our best young pitcher or a close second?

I like Zrebiec just fine, but what does he know that most of use here on the board don't know - let alone those who get paid to scout, analyze, and project prospects?

As Tony has said there are people within the organization that share Zrebiec's view.